The Call Paper. What, if anything, should Mickey do?

Transcription

1 The Call Paper Mickey Numbers, FCAS, submitted a call paper that included graphics sourced from the Internet. Mickey indicated his reliance on other sources of information and cited the sources of the graphics in the paper. Just prior to the paper s publication, a reviewer asked Mickey if he had received permission to use the graphics in his paper, which is something Mickey had not considered, as the graphics were openly available on the Internet. Upon receiving the reviewer s feedback, Mickey contacted the affected websites for permission to use their graphics. However, he did not receive any responses to his requests prior to the paper s print date. What, if anything, should Mickey do?

2 What should Mickey do? 1. Allow the paper to go to print as is, since information on the Internet is in the public domain. 2. Allow the paper to go to print as is, since Mickey s usage of the information constituted fair use. 3. Allow the paper to go to print, but with additional citation to clearly indicate the source of all external information. 4. Allow the paper to go to print, but with modified graphics (e.g. changing a pie chart to a bar chart). 5. Remove the graphics from the paper before going to print.

3 Which ASOP/Precepts apply to this situation? 1. Precept 1: An Actuary shall act honestly, with integrity and competence. 2. Precept 4: An Actuary who issues an Actuarial Communication should indicate the extent to which the Actuary or other sources are available to provide supplementary information and explanation. 3. ASOP 41: An Actuary must disclose any information on which the actuary relied that has a material impact on the actuarial findings and for which the actuary does not assume responsibility. 4. Any others?

4 The Latent Error Mary is an actuary for the Squeaky Clean Insurance Company. Mary has just discovered an error that was contained in the last filing she made in Confused State. This filing, in accordance with regulatory requirements, was approved before implementation. The rates contained in this filing were implemented six months ago. What, if anything, should Mary do?

5 What should Mary do? 1. Take no action until the next filing, she doesn t want to lose credibility 2. Take another look at the rate calculation to see if she can justify filing 3. Raise the issue with her manager to determine best approach 4. Call the regulator, explain the error, and ask what to do 5. Disclose the error immediately. Re-file the corrected rates, and refund any overcharged premium

6 The Faulty Rating Plan Filing You are a recent ACAS with a major personal lines insurer. Several months ago, you filed a new rating plan with State X, and you are having difficulty obtaining approval of the changes from the regulator. You come across an approved competitor filing that implemented a similar rating plan. The filing uses what you believe to be faulty logic. Your boss says if the logic works, use it!, and directs you to use that same logic to get your own filing approved. Do you use this faulty logic in your negotiations with the regulator? If not, do you point out the error in the competitor s logic to the regulator?

7 What should you do with respect to your filing? 1. Follow your boss s direction and amend the filing, using the faulty logic. It gets you to the rate level that you think you need. 25% 2. Continue to work on getting regulators approval for your original filing, using your original assumptions 25% 3. Recommend that the Company change its strategy, limit writings in Sate X. They are just to difficult to do business with. 25% 4. Something else. 25%

8 The Auto Rate Discounts You are an FCAS in charge of annually reviewing indicated discounts for your private passenger automobile rating plan at a major insurance company. This year, you calculated two indicated discounts to be 25% each. Recently, you attended a generalized linear modeling (GLM) seminar. After your return from the seminar, you used GLM methods and determined that one of the discounts should be 35% and the other should be 0%. Your company has been aggressively marketing the 25% discounts, and has invested a lot of marketing effort and expense. What, if anything, should you do?

9 What, if anything, should you do? 1. Keep discounts at 25% each until the next regular filing. 2. Immediately implement the GLM discounts (35%/0%); GLM is more accurate. 3. Get a peer review of your GLM analysis before discussing the situation with your boss. 4. Keep the discounts at 25% but change your marketing approach to concentrate on those insureds that should have a 35% discount.

10 What qualifies you as an expert in GLMs? 1. I am a FCAS, that should says it all. 2. I am a FCAS who took a GLM seminar. 3. I am a FCAS who took a seminar, and has done 20 hours of additional reading. 4. I am a FCAS who had a peer reviewer (who is an expert in GLM). 5. None of the above.

11 The Insider Cindy is a partner of a consulting firm that has been hired to assist in the review of a potential acquisition. The Pretty Darn Good (PDG) Insurance Company is being targeted by We R Really Big (WRRB) Insurance Company for acquisition. Cindy signed a confidentiality agreement with WRRB prior to being engaged on this assignment. After completing her analysis, Cindy has discovered PDG is seriously under-reserved. PDG, however, received a clean Statement of Actuarial Opinion from Really Capable Actuaries (RCA) Consulting Firm. What should Cindy do?

12 Which Precept is the MOST applicable to this situation? 1. Precept 1: An Actuary shall act honestly, with integrity and competence. 2. Precept 5: An Actuary who issues an Actuarial Communication shall, as appropriate, identify the Principal(s). 3. Precept 7: An Actuary shall not knowingly perform Actuarial Services involving an actual or potential conflict of interest. 4. Precept 9: An Actuary shall not disclose to another party any confidential information. 5. Precept 10: An Actuary shall perform Actuarial Services with courtesy and professional respect.

13 What should Cindy do? 1. Cindy had a responsibility to the profession. She should contact the actuary who signed the SAO for PDG and attempt to resolve the differences. 2. Cindy is bound by the confidentiality agreement. She has a responsibility to her principal and cannot discuss her analysis with anyone at PDG. 3. Cindy should recommend that WRRB step away from any deal that is based on PDG s recorded financial statements. 4. Cindy should alert WRRB to the potential issue and request permission to talk with PDG and its actuary.

14 The Outside Reserve Review As the chief actuary for your company, you annually perform a reserve analysis using appropriate methods. This year, senior management hires an outside consultant to perform the reserve analysis as well. The consultant s reserve need estimates are significantly less than your estimate. You believe your results are reasonable, but your management insists that the consulting actuary has more reserving expertise than you, and demands that you lower your estimates. What, if anything, should you do?

15 What should you do? 1. Ignore management, you are a credentialed actuary and know what you are doing. 2. Listen to management and lower your answer. 3. Have a discussion with the outside actuary and try to convince him to raise his numbers. 4. Review the outside actuary s analysis and try to reconcile the differences. If you do not understand all of the differences, discuss with the outside actuary.

16 The Proprietary Rating Plan Ida Guest, FCAS and MAAA, worked for the Prestigious Insurance Company for 10 years and became a company officer. Ida leaves the company effective July 1 and starts her own, single practitioner, consulting firm. Just prior to leaving, Ida worked on the development of a new, very innovative automobile rating plan that Prestigious plans to market aggressively to gain a significant competitive advantage. Millions of dollars have already been spent on Prestigious advertising campaign, which will kick-off August 1. On July 15, Ida publishes a paper that explains, in great detail, the fine points of Prestigious new rating plan. She is selling these reports for $25,000 each and offers her services to companies who would like to make similar filings. She took no work papers with her when she resigned from Prestigious. She recreated all the material in her paper from her photographic memory. Is Ida in trouble?

17 Is Ida in trouble? 1. Yes. Even though Ida worked on the rating plan, PIC owns the intellectual capital. 2. Yes. Ida should have waited until the advertising campaign kick off before selling her paper. 3. No. Ida did not take any work papers with her to write this paper. 25% 25% 25% 4. No. Ida developed the rating plan. If she wants to sell that information that is her choice. 25%

18 The Coastal Rate Increase You are the chief actuary at the Insurance Department in the State of Coastal. A major personal lines insurer made a filing that would result in rate increases of 200% along the coastline. After reviewing the data, you agree that the rate increases are justified. The Insurance Commissioner tells you to disapprove the increase because it would result in rates that are not affordable. Your projections show that without the full 200% rate increase, the insurer may go bankrupt within two years. You have shared this information with the Commissioner, but he still refuses to agree to the large rate increase. What, if anything, should you do?

19 What should you do? 1. Ignore the Commissioner and approve the increase 20% 2. Ignore the indications and disapprove the increase 3. Approve a smaller increase for now and re-visit after a year 4. Ask another actuary who is qualified to do so to review your findings. 5. Schedule a public hearing on the proposal to allow public input. 20% 20% 20% 20%