Climate models: predictions and projections
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1 Climate models: predictions and projections Global Warming Science May 1, 2012 Dan Cziczo Reading: IPCC 2007 WG2 Ch 10,11 1
2 Today s Class What are climate models? (recap) Sub-grid / unresolved processes AR4 Predictions Global vs. Regional Effects 2
3 Today s Class What are climate models? (recap) Sub-grid / unresolved processes AR4 Predictions Global vs. Regional Effects 3
4 4
5 5
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7 This image has been removed due to copyright restrictions. Please see the similar Image on page 7
8 This image has been removed due to copyright restrictions. Please see the image on page 8
9 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 1.2. Cambridge University Press. Used with permission. 9
10 Today s Class What are climate models? (recap) Sub-grid / unresolved processes AR4 Predictions Global vs. Regional Effects 10
11 There s Always a But 11
12 Representing aerosol size distributions in models Bin Modal/Moment Section Monodisperse Image courtesy of Chien Wang. Used with permission. 12
13 Representing aerosol composition in models Image courtesy of Chien Wang. Used with permission. 13
14 Predicted n IN,T (L -1 ) Observed n IN,T (L -1 ) Image by MIT OpenCourseWare. 14
15 Aerosol and Indian Summer Monsoon JJAS Indian Rainfall Relative to Average Courtesy of National Academy of Sciences, U. S. A. Used with permission. Source: Figure 5A in Copyright 2005 National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A. Wrong with only GHG considered. Wrong if only sulfate considered. Right with correct size and composition. 15
16 Today s Class What are climate models? (recap) Sub-grid / unresolved processes AR4 Predictions Global vs. Regional Effects 16
17 Following from AR4 WG2 Ch 10 Test 1, 2 (Sensitivity, Postcast) Forecast 1, 2 (Scenarios) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure Cambridge University Press. Used with permission. 17
18 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Table 10.2 and Cambridge University Press. Used with permission. 18
19 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 9.5. Cambridge University Press. Used with permission. 19
20 AR4 Scenarios 2011: ~ : ~280 A1 Family Rapid on average since 1850 through Shift of countries toward developed. Various commitments to new technology none, in some areas, in whole world. Assumes abundant resources. A1B is commonly used intermediate. A2 Slowdown of global economy and consolidation. B1 Global commitment to environment and sustainable resources. B2 Similar to B1 but with more regionalism. IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC), Figure 1 from Used with permission. 20
21 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure Cambridge University Press. Used with permission. 21
22 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 10.4 and Table Cambridge University Press. Used with permission. 22
23 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure Cambridge University Press. Used with permission. 23
24 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure Cambridge University Press. Used with permission. This image has been removed due to copyright restrictions. Please see all the images on page venice_under_water.html. We re talking this. not this This image has been removed due to copyright restrictions. Please see the image on page This image has been removed due to copyright restrictions. Please see the image on page /2009/06/ mississippi-river-sealevels/. From National Geographic, 20 th Century Fox 24
25 Today s Class What are climate models? (recap) Sub-grid / unresolved processes AR4 Predictions Global vs. Regional Effects 25
26 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure Cambridge University Press. Used with permission. 26
27 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure and Cambridge University Press. Used with permission. 27
28 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Box 11.1, Figure 1 and 2. Cambridge University Press. Used with permission. 28
29 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure and Cambridge University Press. Used with permission. 29
30 How Are We Doing? Source: The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the world on the Latest Climate Science. I. Allison, et. al. The University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney, Australia, 60pp. Courtesy of The Copenhagen Diagnosis. Used with permission. 30
31 Source: The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the world on the Latest Climate Science. I. Allison, et. al. The University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney, Australia, 60pp. Courtesy of The Copenhagen Diagnosis. Used with permission. 31
32 The Triangle Data & Phenomena THEORY Foundation lab/numerical EXPERIMENT OBSERVATION Courtesy of Chien Wang. Used with permission. 32
33 MIT OpenCourseWare Global Warming Science Spring 2012 For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: 33
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