MARVIN RAUSAND. Risk Assessment. Theory, Methods, and Applications STATISTICS I:-\ PRACTICE

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1 MARVIN RAUSAND Risk Assessment Theory, Methods, and Applications STATISTICS I:-\ PRACTICE

3 RISK ASSESSMENT

4 STATISTICS IN PRACTICE Advisory Editor Wolfgang Jank University of Maryland, USA Founding Editor Vic Barnett Nottingham Trent University, UK The texts in the series provide detailed coverage of statistical concepts, methods, and worked case studies in specific fields of investigation and study. With sound motivation and many worked practical examples, the books show in down-to-earth terms how to select and use an appropriate range of statistical techniques in a particular practical field. Readers are assumed to have a basic understanding of introductory statistics, enabling the authors to concentrate on those techniques of most importance in the discipline under discussion. The books meet the need for statistical support required by professionals andresearch workers across a range of employment fields and research environments. Subject areas covered include medicine and pharmaceutics; industry, finance, and commerce; public services; the earth and environmental sciences. A complete list of titles in this series appears at the end of the volume.

5 RISK ASSESSMENT Theory, Methods, and Applications MARVIN RAUSAND Norwegian University of Science and Technology ~WILEY A JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC., PUBLICATION

6 Cover photo credit: Helge Hansen/Statoil Copyright 2011 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. Published simultaneously in Canada. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section I 07 or I 08 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) , fax (978) , or on the web at Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Ill River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (20 I) II, fax (20 I ) , or online at wiley.com/go/permission. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages. For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at (800) , outside the United States at (317) or fax (317) Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic formats. For more information about Wiley products, visit our web site at Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data: Rausand, Marvin. Risk assessment : theory, methods, and applications I Marvin Rausand. p. em.- (Statistics in practice) Includes index. ISBN (hardback)' I Technology-Risk assessment. 2. Risk assessment. I. Title. TI74.5.R '02-dc Printed in the United States of America I

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9 CONTENTS Preface Acknowledgments PART I INTRODUCnON TO RISK ASSESSMENT XIII xvil 1 Introduction Introduction Risk Analysis, Assessment, and Management The Study Object Accident Categories Risk in Our Modem Society Safety Legislation Risk and Decision-Making Structure of the Book Additional Reading 28 vii

10 viii CONTENTS 2 The Words of Risk Analysis Introduction Events and Scenarios Probability and Frequency Assets and Consequences Risk Barriers Accidents Uncertainty Vulnerability and Resilience Safety and Security Additional Reading 63 3 Hazards and Threats I Introduction Ha7.ards Classi cation of Hazards Threats Energy Sources Technical Failures Human and Organizational Factors Additional Reading 76 4 How to Measure and Evaluate Risk Introduction Risk Indicators Risk to People Risk Matrices Risk Acceptance Criteria Closure Additional Reading Risk Management Introduction Risk Management Bow-Tie Analysis Risk Analysis 121

11 CONTENTS lx 5.5 Risk Evaluation Risk Control and Risk Reduction Competence Requirements Quality Requirements Additional Reading Accident Models Introduction Accident Causation Accident Models Energy and Barrier Models Sequential Accident Models Epidemiological Accident Models Event Causation and Sequencing Models Systemic Accident Models Additional Reading Data for Risk Analysis Introduction Types of Data Accident Data Component Reliability Data Human Error Data Software Failure Data Expert Judgment Data Dossier Additional Reading 194 PART II RISK ASSESSMENT METHODS AND APPLICATIONS 8 Risk Assessment Process Introduction Plan and Prepare Reporting Updating Additional Reading 211

12 X CONTENTS 9 Hazard ldentl cation Introduction Hazard Log Checklist Methods Preliminary Hazard Analysis Change Analysis FMECA HAZOP SWIFT Master Logic Diagram Additional Reading Causal and Frequency Analysis Introduction Cause and Effect Diagram Analysis Fault Tree Analysis Bayesian Networks Markov Methods Petri Nets Additional Reading Development of Accident Scenarios Introduction Event Tree Analysis Event Sequence Diagrams Cause-Consequence Analysis Escalation Problems Consequence Models Additional Reading Barriers and Barrier Analysis Introduction Barriers and Barrier Classi cation Barrier Properties Safety Instrumented Systems Hazard-Barrier Matrices Safety Barrier Diagrams 383

13 CONTENTS xl 12.7 Bow-tie Diagrams Energy Flow/Barrier Analysis Layer of Protection Analysis Barrier and Operational Risk Analysis Additional reading Human Reliability Analysis Introduction Task Analysis Human Error ldenti cation HRA Methods Additional Reading Job Safety Analysis Introduction Objectives and Applications Analysis Procedure Resources and Skills Required Advantages and Limitations Additional reading Common-Cause Failures Introduction Basic Concepts Causes of CCFs Modeling of CCFs The Beta-factor Model More Complex CCF Models Additional Reading Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Introduction Uncertainty Categories of Uncertainty Contributors to Uncertainty Uncertainty Propagation Sensitivity Analysis 512

14 xil CONTENTS 16.7 Additional Reading Development and Applications of Risk Assessment 17.1 Introduction 17.2 Defense and Defense Industry 17.3 Nuclear Power Industry 17.4 Process Industry 17.5 Offshore Oil and Gas Industry 17.6 Space Industry 17.7 Aviation 17.8 Railway Transport 17.9 Marine Transport Machinery Systems Other Application Areas Closure PART Ill APPENDICES Appendix A: Elements of Probability Theory A.l Introduction A.2 Outcomes and Events A.3 Probability A.4 Random Variables A.5 Some Speci c Distributions A.6 Point and Interval Estimation A.7 Bayesian Approach A.8 Probability of Frequency Approach A.9 Additional Reading Appendix 8: Acronyms Appendix C: Glossary 593 References 608 Index 635

15 Preface This book gives a comprehensive introduction to risk analysis and risk assessment, and the main methods for such analyses. It deals with accidents that may occur in technical or sociotechnical systems with focus on sudden, major accidents. Day-today occupational accidents and negative health effects due to long-term exposure are therefore outside the scope of the book. In I 99 I, the Norwegian standard NS 5814, Requirements to Risk Analysis, was issued and I wrote a small book in Norwegian called Risk Analysis: Guidance to NS 58/4 (Rausand, 1991). The book was very basic but filled a purpose and was used extensively. I began to write the current book in 1995 after the first edition of the book System Reliability Theory was published. After awhile I realized that writing a book on risk assessment was much more difficult than writing a book on system reliability. This was due mainly to the confusing terminology, the multidisciplinary character of the topics, and the overwhelming number of reports and guidelines that had been written. In 2008, the second edition of NS 5814 was issued and the guideline had to be updated and extended. This resulted in the book Risk Analysis: Theory and Methods (Rausand and Utne, 2009b), which is written in Norwegian and coauthored by Ingrid Bouwer Utne. The book was strongly influenced by the manuscript of the current book, has a similar structure, but is more basic and straightforward. XIII

MARVIN RAUSAND. Risk Assessment. Theory, Methods, and Applications STATISTICS I:-\ PRACTICE

$MARVIN RAUSAND. Risk Assessment. Theory, Methods, and Applications STATISTICS I:-\ PRACTICE$ MARVIN RAUSAND Risk Assessment Theory, Methods, and Applications STATISTICS I:-\ PRACTICE RISK ASSESSMENT STATISTICS IN PRACTICE Advisory Editor Wolfgang Jank University of Maryland, USA Founding Editor