2015 North America Insurance Industry Economic and Ratings Outlook North America Insurance Ratings Webcast January 15, 2015

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1 2015 North America Insurance Industry Economic and Ratings North America Insurance Ratings Webcast January 15, 2015 Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor s. Copyright 2015 by Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved.

2 Opening Remarks Neil Stein, Director

3 S&P U.S. Economic Rebounding to Good Health Private-sector strength offsetting government austerity Real GDP of 3.9% in third quarter Expect to see an acceleration in wage growth into next year Further improvement in capital expenditures through 2015 Improved consumer spending supported by plummeting oil price. We expect the Federal Reserve to hike the interest rate We expect first interest-rate hike in 2015, with the federal funds rate reaching 1.25% by year end Geopolitical risks loom Reverse shock from oil prices on energy sector. Ukraine-Russia crisis ISIS threat across Iraq and Syria 3

4 Economic Forecast Upside Baseline Downside --Actual Real GDP % yr. Treasury % S&P 500 Index 1, , , , , , , , , ,642.5 Unempl. % Payroll employment (mil.) Core CPI % AAA Corp. % CPI % Source: Standard & Poor s Ratings Services.

5 Reinsurance Taoufik Gharib, Director

6 Global Reinsurance: Credit Overview Our credit outlook for the Global Reinsurance sector is negative Key Rating Factors for the Sector Strong capital adequacy with capital levels at their record highs supported by strong earnings during the past three years ( ) Enterprise risk management capabilities remain high, with reinsurers among the leading practitioners in the industry Relatively conservative investment portfolios (high credit quality, short duration, and liquid assets) The market is experiencing significant rate declines in almost all global lines of business Competitive positions and earnings are under pressure Investment returns remain relatively low and benefit of reserve release likely to diminish 6

7 USD ( billions) Supply And Demand The Oversupply of Reinsurance and the Reduced Demand for it is Reshaping the Marketplace % 470-3% % 7% % 18% Alternative Traditonal Global Reinsurer Capital Source: Aon Benfield Analytics. 7

8 Ratings Distribution & Trends: Global Reinsurance 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% AAA AA A BBB Lower Upgrade Downgrade 8 Data as of December 31 of each year; 36 interactively-rated companies and groups. Source: Standard & Poor s Ratings Services.

9 Rating s: Global Reinsurance 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% CreditWatch Negative Negative Stable CreditWatch Developing Positive CreditWatch Positive Data as of December 31 of each year; 36 interactively-rated companies and groups. Source: Standard & Poor s Ratings Services. 9

10 Property/Casualty Industry Tracy Dolin-Benguigui, Director

11 U.S. Property/Casualty Insurance: Credit Overview The average credit rating among our rated U.S. Property/Casualty insurers is A Our credit outlook for the U.S. Property/Casualty insurance sector is stable We expect few rating changes in 2015 with a roughly equal number of downgrades and upgrades Key Rating Factors for the Sector Very Strong capital adequacy Focus on underwriting profitability Relatively conservative investment portfolio Catastrophe and weather related losses make earnings less predictable We expect pricing to flatten in 2015, on par with loss-cost trends, and lower reserve releases. Firming yet historically low interest rates pressure net investment yield

12 Rating Distribution & Trends: U.S. P/C Insurance As of Dec 31 of each year; 49 interactively-rated companies and groups. Source: Standard & Poor s Ratings Services. 12

13 Ratings s: U.S. P/C Insurance 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Negative Stable Developing Positive As of Dec 31 of each year; 49 interactively-rated companies and groups. Source: Standard & Poor s Ratings Services. 13

14 Life Industry Matt Carroll, Senior Director

15 U.S. Life Insurance: Credit Overview Our credit outlook for the U.S. Life insurance sector is stable We expect upgrades and downgrades to be balanced over the next 12 months. Actions are likely to be situation specific. Key Rating Factors for the Sector Strong capital adequacy and liquidity Generally conservative investment portfolios Disciplined ALM Equity market performance Low interest rates compressing spreads Fragmented sector with intense competition 15

16 Rating Distribution & Trends: U.S. Life 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% AAA AA A BBB Lower As of December 31 of each year; 81 interactively-rated companies and groups. Source: Standard & Poor s Ratings Services. 16

17 Ratings s: U.S. Life 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% CreditWatch Negative Negative Stable Developing CreditWatch Developing Positive As of December 31 of each year; 81 interactive ratings. Source: Standard & Poor s Ratings Services. 17

18 Health Industry Joe Marinucci, Senior Director

19 U.S. Health Insurance: Credit Overview A stable outlook amid sector transition Reflecting limited potential for credit quality change in 2015 Adapting to an evolving law reliant upon a private sector framework Business conditions Financial fundamentals Capacity to absorb transitional strain / improving market visibility Industry risk remains somewhat elevated Growth management in government-sponsored product lines and ACA compliant products (margin dilution) Emergence of upside cost pressure tied to increased service demand, provider consolidation, specialty pharma 19

20 Rating Distribution and Trends: U.S. Health Insurance 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% AAA AA A BBB Lower Upgrade Downgrade As of December 31, Source Standard & Poor s Ratings Services. 20

21 Ratings : U.S. Health Insurance 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% CreditWatch Negative Negative Stable CreditWatch Developing Positive As of December 31 of each year. Source: Standard & Poor s Ratings Services. 21

22 Q&A Ask questions by typing them into the Q&A box on the left side of your screen

23 Save the Date! Insurance Hot Topics Seminar Feb. 25, 2015 Standard & Poor s Ratings Services, New York City Agenda and registration details to come. Visit for updates

24 Thank You Matt Carroll Senior Director T: Tracy Dolin-Benguigui Director T: Joe Marinucci Senior Director T: Neil Stein Director T: Taoufik Gharib Director T: Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor s. Copyright 2015 by Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved.

25 Copyright 2015 by Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an as is basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. S&P s opinions, analyses and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where registered as such. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw or suspend such acknowledgement at any time and in its sole discretion. S&P Parties disclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment, withdrawal or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damage alleged to have been suffered on account thereof. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, (free of charge), and and (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at STANDARD & POOR S, S&P and RATINGSDIRECT are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC.

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