A Journey Towards True Enterprise Risk Management
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1 The Long and Winding Road A Journey Towards True Enterprise Risk Management By the Journeyman Per Åkenes
2 RISK = FUTURE UNCERTAINTY
3 GOALS and STRATEGIES DECISION MAKING CULTURE
4 The Road Travelled from sudden and accidental fortuitous loss to unknown unknowns
5 There were risks everywhere And he screamed wolf!
6 Don t worry its insured
7 The Basic Risk Management Process Risk identification Assessment Prioritization Risk response Implementation Review
8 Extending the reach Going step by step Domestic corporate view Western world view Global view
9 Scientific Risk Management Law of large numbers Seeking predictability
10 Scientific Risk Management
11 The rise of the Captive Insurance Company Parent/Owner Profits Operations Insurance Premiums Captive Insurance Company Expenses Claims Payments Reinsurance Premiums Claims
12 Then the financial wizards came along
13 Financial Risk Strategies and Tools Source: CGMA 2015
14 The Wiz Kids Financial Risk Management takes the scene New tools are invented / developed Limiting financial risks (But also enabling high stakes) mortgage backed security (MBS) collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) collateralized debt obligations (CDOs)
15 Everyone s a Risk Manager Tradition risk management Financial risk management Legal, compliance Quality assurance Health & Safety Security Cyber security Environmental risk management, sustainability CSR Supply chain risk management et al
16
17 Our Playing Field MANDATED BOUNDARY boundary established by external forces including laws, government regulation, and other mandates OPPORTUNITIES OPTIMIZE PERFORMANCE strategy, people, process, technology, and infrastructure in place to drive toward objectives OBSTACLES OBJECTIVES strategic, operational, customer, process, and compliance objectives Source: OCEG.org VOLUNTARY BOUNDARY boundary defined by management including public commitments, organizational values, contractual obligations, and other voluntary policies
18 What s it all about? Decision Making Your organization, as it stands today, is the result of all decisions previously made by its board, management team and every other employee. Your organization s future will be the result of the decisions you make today and tomorrow. You better make wise decisions!
19 How to produce good decisions? 1. Culture 2. Culture 3. Culture Good Culture good decisions Bad Culture?
20
21 Kultur Culture ثقافة
22
23 Organizational Culture The standard you walk past is the standard you accept. David Morrison
24 Most Important Decisions? GOALS & STRATEGIES Setting goals Developing strategies to reach each goal Creating alternative strategies Executing each strategy Monitoring results Understanding when to switch strategy i.e. being agile
25 THE PROPORTION OF SIGNIFICANT LOSSES IN MARKET VALUE CAUSED BY EACH TYPE OF RISK OVER THE PAST DECADE Strategic 86% 9 3 Operating THE PROPORTION OF TIME AUDITORS SPENT ON EACH TYPE 6 42% 13% Financial Reporting Legal and Complianc e SOURCE: CEB FROM: "How to Live with Risks", July August 2015 HBR.ORG
26 Running an ERM workshop with the C suite Facilitators Preparation Understanding the context What business are we in? Overall Mission and Vision Customers, promises Culture Goals (medium short term) Business model Brand recognition, trust Value chain, earning generators Competition Organizational structure Business conditions in general Board of Directors Stakeholders and expectations Risk / Audit Committee Past performance C suite members, Internal Audit, ERM KPIs Workshop attendants, personalities
27 Running an ERM workshop with the C suite C Suite Preparation: Current / Next year s Corporate Goals
28 SMART GOALS + accountability
29 Running an ERM workshop with the C suite The Meeting Setting the scene Stating and agreeing the 4 8 most important goals Discussing opportunities and strategic assumptions Why wouldn t we reach our goals? Future uncertainties List circumstances that might impede on our ability to reach set goals Brainstorming, discussion (trying to keep the CEO calm) Vote and agree on 8 10 key risks (CEO last)
30 Running an ERM workshop with the C suite The Key Risks Risk Owner? Assess potential impact (on EBITA) Assess likelihood Assess urgency (clock speed) Agree on acceptability Discuss risk control actions needed The Aftermath Discuss impressions with CEO/CFO/ERM/IA Write report Get CEO to sign off Present to Risk/Audit Committee and full Board Monitor progress
31 GLOBAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT THE WORKSHOP PROCESS KEY OBJECTIVES Uncertain circumstances, events? Risk Owner Potential impact Likelihood Current controls Urgency Acceptability Proposed response Agreed action
32 Experience from ERM workshops Never before have we, the management team, spent two hours focusing primarily on risks against corporate goals. What has been discussed individually among us, from case to case, has been laid on the table for everyone to see and agree. Great to have had this common experience.
33 Experience from ERM workshops Vague business goals Disagreement on goals MD/CEO dominance Difference between issues and risks? The Elephant in the room
34 Problems creating and running ERM Lack of CEO and BoD buy in Single ERM Champion performance Inwards looking, self centric The outside world is always bigger The outside world calls the shots Sustainable thinking Don t create an ERM cult ERM is not the end, but the means to an end Don t get stuck with risk registers
35 Thinking Fast and Slow or thinking at all? Daniel Kahneman had expected to be awed by the quality of the decision making in organizations that need to make profits to survive in a competitive world. You look at large organizations that are supposed to be optimal, rational. And the amount of folly in the way these places are run, the stupid procedures that they have, the really, really poor thinking you see all around you, is actually fairly troubling, he said, noting that there is much that could be improved. Speaking at Wharton
36 Measuring Confidence? From an organizational perspective, true confidence suggests mature capabilities in which competent people with high accountability for results are engaged in the pursuit of a common purpose. Source: Protivity, The Bullitin Vol 6:4
37 NORDIC ERM SURVEY 2011 SUMMARY Q A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ ERM ERM ERM ERM ERM ERM ERM ERM O O O ERM ERM O O ERM O ERM O ERM O O O O O O O O O O O O O O XL XL XL XL XL XL XL XL XL XL XL XL XL XL XL XL XL XL XL XL XL CEO RM CFO RM CFO CFO CFO RM IA CFO CFO CFO CFO CEO CFO RM CFO RM Leg IA RM IA CFO RM RM O Tr CFO RM RM Tr O 15 S,W,O W S All S,W S, I S W S,W S,W O S,W W O S,W,I All S,W,I W,I O S,W S,W S,O I, Q S,W Q S,Q,O All O I,O S,W O S,O S O COSO ISO Own Comb ISO ISO ISO Own Comb COSO Own Comb Own Own Comb Own COSO Comb Comb Own 24 4 Cont Cont N/A 1 Cont 4 1 N/A 2 N/A N/A 25 N/A N/A LEGEND: Question not answered For YES/NO questions: YES For questions with graded answers: Excellent Medium NO Good Could be better Not so good / bad
38 NORDIC ERM SURVEY 2011 SUMMARY Question / Issue ERM governance model 2 Holistic process 3 Use the term ERM ERM ERM ERM ERM ERM ERM ERM ERM ERM O ERM O ERM O ERM O O ERM O ERM ERM 4 Drivers behind ERM 5 Risk Policy 6 Definition of Risk 7 Risk Appetite 8 Decision making impact 9 Strategy Process impl 10 Stress tests etc. 11 Software used XL XL XL XL XL XL XL XL XL XL XL XL XL 12 Roles & Responsibilities 13 Risk Executive 14 Function CEO RM CFO RM RM CFO CFO CFO RM IA CFO CFO CFO CFO CFO CEO CFO RM CFO RM CFO 15 Risk identification/ass. S,W,O W S W,Q All S,W S, I S W S,W S,W S,W S,W O W O S,W,I All S,W,I W,I S 16 Board Oversight 17 Effectiveness of ERM 18 Challenge 19 Maturity 20 Support 21 Internal Audit 22 IA relationship 23 ERM framework COSO ISO Own COSO Comb ISO ISO ISO Own Comb Comb Own COSO Comb Own Own Comb Own 24 Risk Assessment Frq. 4 Cont Cont Aggregation 26 Value of ERM 27 Reasons 28 Fad? 29 ERM development 14/11/2016 Swerma Nordic ERM Survey Remarks
39 The Swedish Corporate Governance Code
40 FUTURE OF ERM?
41 The Future of ERM Focus: #1: Customer beliefs and experiences #2: Customer beliefs and experiences #3: Customer beliefs and experiences Understanding our brains and our biases Future scaping Creating Quality in Decision Making Going digital, Big Data, Predictive Analytics IoT AI
42 The Future of ERM ERM needs to become a natural part of general management and governance thinking. The process starts at schools and universities developing our future leaders. NC State Poole College of Management University of Gothenburg
43 GOALS and STRATEGIES DECISION MAKING CULTURE THANK YOU!
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