Presentation to IRDR Conference 2011, Beijing G.A. McBean, Co-Convening Lead Author, Chapter 9 Case Studies

Transcription

1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Special Report - Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation - IPCC - SREX Presentation to IRDR Conference 2011, Beijing G.A. McBean, Co-Convening Lead Author, Chapter 9 Case Studies

2 IPCC Special Report March April 25 May 27 July 10 September 9-12 November Feb. - 5 March March October 2011 Jan. March April June October November Meeting - Oslo, Norway 30th Session of the IPCC (Special Report authorized) Call for nominations issued Lead Author and Review Editor nominations Lead Author and Review Editor notifications First Lead Authors Meeting - Panama City, Panama Informal Peer Review Second Lead Authors Meeting - Hanoi, Vietnam Third Lead Authors Meeting - Geneva, Switzerland Government / Expert Review Fourth Lead Authors Meeting Gold Coast, Australia Final Government Distribution Session to approve SPM and accept underlying document

3 Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation 1. Climate change: new dimensions in disaster risk, exposure, vulnerability, and resilience Lavell, Oppenheimer Risk reduction, risk management, risk transfer; Coping vs. Adapting; Extreme events vs. extreme impacts 2. Determinants of risks: exposure and vulnerability Cardona, van Aalst Dimensions of vulnerability; Vulnerability profiles; Coping and adaptive capacities; Assessment of and trends in vulnerability; Risk identification, risk accumulation, and the nature of disasters 3. Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment Nichols, Seneviratne Weather and climate events related to disasters; Climate extremes and impacts: past and current changes; The causes behind the changes; Climate extremes and impacts: projected long-term changes; Confidence in the projections

4 4. Changes in impacts of climate extremes: human systems and ecosystems Handmer, Honda, Kundzewicz, Nobre, Role of climate extremes in natural and socioeconomic systems; Nature of impacts and relation to hazards; Observed trends in system exposure and vulnerability; System- and sector-based aspects of vulnerability, exposures, and impacts; Regional aspects of vulnerability, exposures, and impacts; Costs of climate extremes and disasters 5. Managing the risks from climate extremes at the local level Cutter, Osman-Elasha Community coping, including migration; Community-based disaster risk management; Gender, age, wealth, and entitlements; Social transfers, including microfinance, cash transfers, benefit schemes, and cash for work; Risk transfers, including microinsurance; Data as input for risk management, including challenges; Costs of managing the risks from climate extremes 6. Managing the risks from climate extremes at the national level Lal, Mitchell Practice, including methods and tools; Approaches for managing the risks; Planning and policies; Strategies, including institutions, legislation, and finance; Perspective on the links between national and local scales; Costs of managing the risks from climate extremes

5 7. Managing the risks: international level and integration across scales Burton, Dube International policy frameworks; anternational humanitarian institutions and practice; Other relevant international issues (health, food security, finance, security); International law; Financing and (dis)incentives for risk reduction, costs and benefits of various Approaches, and implications for financing flows; Technology cooperation; Risk transfer; Perspective on links between local, national, and global scales; Costs of managing the risks from climate extremes 8. Toward a sustainable and resilient future O`Brien, Padwardhan Disaster risk reduction as adaptation: relationship to development planning; Synergies between short-term coping and long-term adaptation for sustainable development; Interactions among disaster risk management, adaptation to climate change extremes, and mitigation of; greenhouse gas emissions; Implications for access to resources, equity, and sustainable development; Implications for achieving relevant international goals; Options for proactive, long-term resilience to future climate extremes 9. Case studies Murray, McBean, Bhatt

6 IPCC SREX Summary for Policymakers A. CLIMATE EXTREMES AND DISASTERS: CONTEXT Exposure and vulnerability are key determinants of disaster risk. A changing climate leads to changes in... extreme weather and climate events. EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY Vulnerability and exposure... economic, social, demographic, cultural, institutional, and governance factors (high confidence). CLIMATE EXTREMES AND IMPACTS There is evidence that some extremes have changed as a result of anthropogenic influences...

7 DISASTER LOSSES Economic losses from weather- and climate-related disasters are increasing,... Increasing exposure of people and economic assets is the major cause of the long-term changes in economic disaster losses... C. DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: PAST EXPERIENCE WITH CLIMATE EXTREMES Trends in vulnerability and exposure are major drivers of changes in disaster risk (high confidence). Data on disasters and disaster risk reduction are lacking at the local level, especially in developing countries,... Post-disaster recovery may provide a critical opportunity for reducing weather- and climate-related disaster risk and for improving adaptive capacity (high agreement, robust evidence).

8 Closer integration of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation,... (high agreement, medium evidence). D. FUTURE CLIMATE EXTREMES, IMPACTS, AND DISASTER LOSSES CLIMATE EXTREMES AND IMPACTS IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT A prerequisite for sustainability is addressing the underlying causes of vulnerability and the structural inequalities that create and sustain poverty and constrain access to resources (medium agreement, robust evidence). Short-term and long-term perspectives on disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change can be difficult to reconcile (high agreement, medium evidence).

9 IPCC - Special Report - Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation Presented to Governments in mid-november, 2011, in Kampala. Media release expected at 1pm, 18 November 2011 (local time) What will be media, public and political responses?

10 IPCC - Special Report - Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation A special report in IPCC context Only on climate hazards Outlined presented to authors Authors drawn through IPCC process WMO-UNEP members, Governmental and expert review processes Did not explicitly identify research gaps; what needs to be known.

11 The End Thank you for your attention