Workshop on Systemic Risk in Insurance: Understanding FSOC Designation of Systemically Significant Insurers
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1 Workshop on Systemic Risk in Insurance: Understanding FSOC Designation of Systemically Significant Insurers Daniel Schwarcz University of Minnesota Law School
2 Overview (1) Uncertainty and change in systemic risk and insurance (2) State-based insurance regulation and systemic risk (3) SIFI designation under Dodd-Frank
3 (1) Uncertainty and change in systemic risk and insurance: Evidence A. AIG s securities lending activities. B. Non-AIG insurance bailouts Failure of financial guarantee insurers and auction-rate securities market. C. Quantitative measures of systemic risk of insurers, such as SRISK
4 (1) Uncertainty and change in systemic risk and insurance: structural vulnerabilities A. Plausible transmission mechanisms (i) asset fire sales (ii) Interconnectedness. B. Various insurance products include substantial optionality. Deferred annuities, GICs, certain life insurance products C. Increasing capital markets activities fragile capital market funding, catastrophe bonds D. Guarantee funds designed for policyholder protection, not systemic risk.
5 (1) Uncertainty and change in systemic risk and insurance: Potential Emerging Systemic Risks A. Principles-Based Reserving (PBR) Similar to Basel II framework permitting banks to set capital levels using internal models. B. Shadow insurance Creates recapture risk, correlated parent company risk, and increased interconnectedness Increases opacity and complexity of industry
6 (2) State-Based Insurance Regulation and Systemic Risk Effective regulation of systemic risk requires consolidated oversight of complex conglomerates State insurance regulation is almost entirely focused on individual legal entities. State group insurance regulation is entirely based on qualitative standards that are highly enforcement-sensitive. States have poor incentives and expertise when it comes to group-focused risk
7 (2) State-Based Insurance Regulation and Systemic Risk AIG and Securities Lending Sellers of Risky Mortgage- Related Securities AIG Holding Company Cash Collateral From securities borrowers Mortgage backed securities AIG Securities Lending AIG Insurer 1 (domesticated in Penn) AIG Insurer 2 (domesticated in Texas) Securities (primary assets of insurers) Securities Cash collateral Non-AIG securities Borrowers AIG Financial products AIG Insurer 3 (domesticated in NY) Cash Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Non-AIG CDS purchasers insuring against risk from risky mortgage relates securities
8 (2) State-Based Insurance Regulation and Systemic Risk Shadow Insurance with LOC backed by Parental Guarantee Parent company of ceding insurer and captive reinsurer Parent guarantees captive reinsurer s obligations under LOC LOC guarantees reinsurance Third-party bank Companies within same Insurance holding company Letter of Credit secured Ceding Insurer permitted to take reserve credit and RBC adjustments in connection with reinsured policies Reinsurance premiums Insurance Policies reinsured Unauthorized reinsurer that is not licensed or accredited by ceding insurer s regulator
9 (3) SIFI designation under Dodd-Frank A. Uncertainty of systemic risk in insurance combined with limits of state insurance regulation can incentivize insurers to affirmatively seek out systemic risk. B. Malleability of FSOC Designation standard disincentivizes insurance companies from seeking out systemic risk. Creates only limited uncertainty due to (i) quantitative screen, and (ii) tacit non-designation of most insurers. C. FSOC Designation standard incentivizes state regulators to affirmatively respond to emerging areas of concern. Shadow insurance reforms and group capital project.
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