Topdanmark Q1-Q Result

Transcription

1 Topdanmark Q1-Q Result

2 Highlights Q1-Q Post-tax profit: DKK 1,071m (Q1-Q3 2017: DKK 1,353m) EPS: DKK 12.4 (Q1-Q3 2017: DKK 15.8) CR: 84.2 (Q1-Q3 2017: 81.9) CR excl. run-off: 87.3 (Q1-Q3 2017: 85.6) Premium growth: 2.2% increase in non-life and 14.1% increase in life insurance Profit in life insurance: DKK 182m (Q1-Q3 2017: DKK 207m) Investment return: DKK 132m (Q1-Q3 2017: DKK 330m) Q Post-tax profit: DKK 459m (Q3 2017: DKK 464m) EPS: DKK 5.3 (Q3 2017: DKK 5.4) CR: 81.6 (Q3 2017: 82.0) CR excl. run-off: 84.8 (Q3 2017: 86.1) Premium growth: 2.2% increase in non-life and 1.3% increase in life insurance Profit in life insurance: DKK 77m (Q3 2017: DKK 79m) Investment return: DKK 92m (Q3 2017: DKK 109m) Profit forecast model for 2018 A continued positive growth in premiums is assumed in non-life insurance For the full year 2018, assumed CR improves from to excl. run-off in Q Still including additional expenses of 0.5-1pp due to the investment in increased digitisation and automation The profit forecast model for 2018 is upgraded by DKK 150m to DKK 1,200-1,300m excl. run-off in Q EPS: DKK 14.5 The profit forecast model for 2018 is based on the prices on the financial markets as of the end of Q Due to the negative financial markets the investment return from 1/10-12/ has been around DKK 50m pre-tax lower than assumed in the profit forecast model for 2018 Assumptions for 2019 Positive premium growth in non-life insurance CR: excl. run-off 2

3 Trend in pre-tax result 1,743 Q1-Q Q1-Q Q Q ,371 Q1-Q Technical result Investment return (non-life) Life Parent company etc. Q1-Q Q Technical result Investment return (non-life) Life Parent company etc. Q

4 Claims trend excl. run-off, weather and large-scale claims Claims trend Full year Q3 Q3 Q1-Q3 Q1-Q Claims trend Run-off Weather-related claims (0.4) (0.7) 0.0 (0.3) 0.0 Large-scale claims (0.2) (0.4) (1.6) (0.2) (1.5) Claims before run-off, weather and large-scale claims

5 Q1-Q Premium growth Personal SME Termination 1) Premium growth total (0.4) (1) 1) Termination of the distribution agreement with Sydbank and Nykredit within life insurance (illness/accident) 5

6 Moving average Q Q Claims trend excl. run-off, weather and large-scale claims Improvement in claims trend excl. run-off, weather and large-scale claims pp Q Q

7 Trend in combined ratio Effect of decline in interest rate level in pp of CR 4.8pp (2.0) (1.0) Q1-Q

8 Reasons for the improved claims trend Change in business mix Improved underwriting Loss preventing initiatives Screening for unprofitable customers Customer scoring system Digitisation Self-service Robotics Outsourcing Improved purchasing power Improved churn rate 8

9 Personal segment Trend in retention ratio Index Q1-Q Q1-Q Q1-Q Q1-Q Q1-Q Q1-Q Q1-Q Q1-Q Q1-Q

10 Efficiency Digitisation Self-service Online purchase Efficiency Process optimisation and automation 17% of new sales are initiated digitally and processed digitally in full or partly 3% of new sales are processed fully digitally 64% of claims are reported digitally via Topdanmark s website or glass portal and 18% are automated in full or partly 10% of claims are reported and processed fully digitally 46 processes are executed via RPA (Robot Process Automation) 1 ML (Machine Learning) process in production from November 2018 Experimenting with ML for two other processes Outsourcing of business processes and IT development Topdanmark has reduced the number of FTEs by 14% since

11 Trend in risk on motor Claims frequency Average claim Risk premium 11

12 Assumed CR for 2018 improved from to ) ~0.4 Assumed CR for 2018 in the Q report for 2018 excl. run-off Weather Run-off Risk margin Discounting Large-scale claims Other CR for 2018 excl. run-off in Q Assumptions for CR in 2018 A normal year for weather with weather-related claims of DKK 50m in Q A level of interest rates corresponding to the interest rate curve on 28 September 2018 An expense ratio around 16 1) Incl. additional expenses of 0.5-1pp due to an update in investments in digitisation and automation 12

13 Run-off (white) Trend in combined ratio ) 2) Q1-Q E 1) Not including run-off in Q ) Incl. additional expenses representing 0.5-1pp due to investment in increased digitisation and automation 13

14 Excl. run-off Assumed CR of around for ~ ) Assumed CR for 2018 Run-off in Q1-Q Weather in Q1-Q compared to normal level Risk margin in Q3 Efficiency gains/improved insurance risk Assumed CR for 2019 excl. run-off 1) Assumed normal level for i.a. fire and large-scale claims 14

15 Effect of increase in interest rates Claims provisions are matched by corresponding assets Changes in interest rates have no effect on overall value of claims provisions and matching investment assets A 1pp increase in the interest rate curve reduces the CR by about 1.0pp corresponding to DKK 90m before tax Premium provisions invested in short-term interest bearing assets A 1pp increase in short-term interest rates increases the pre-tax result by about DKK 40m 15

16 Movements in the adjusted interest rate curve 16

17 Topdanmark Group excl. Life insurance Investment return Investment return Portfolio 30 Sep Return Return (DKKm ) % (DKKm ) % (DKKm ) % (DKKm ) % Danish equities (1) (0.3) Foreign equities Unlisted equities and hedge funds Government and mortgage bonds (9) (0.1) Credit bonds (0) (0.8) (0) (1.2) Index linked bonds (0) (0.1) CDOs Properties Money market etc (2) (0.1) (1) (0.0) (21) (0.6) (5) (0.2) Subordinated loan capital (1.3) (1.7) (11) (0.9) (12) (0.7) (33) (2.1) (35) (2.0) Interest-bearing debt (0.2) Asset management Investment return Return and revaluations of (DKKbn) Return Q Return Q Q1-Q Q1-Q non-life insurance provisions (58) 17 (62) (49) Investment return after return and revaluations of non-life insurance provisions The exposure in foreign equities and credit bonds has been adjusted by the use of derivatives. The return percentages are calculated as the ratio between the return on financial instruments and the size of the exposure of the underlying asset. The return on properties includes revaluation of owner-occupied property, which has been included in other comprehensive income. 17

18 Life insurance Result Result of life insurance Full year Q3 Q3 Q1-Q3 Q1-Q3 (DKKm ) Investment return on shareholders' equity Sales and administration (25) (1) 5 (20) (11) Insurance risk (5) Risk return on shareholders' equity Profit on life insurance

19 Life insurance Trend in gross premiums DKKm Q1-Q Q1-Q ,000 % change 7,000 6,000 6,266 7,147 5,000 4,000 4,168 5, % 3,000 2,000 2,098 2, % 1, % 0 Regular Single Total 19

20 Life insurance Prospects for 2018 Assumed growth in regular premiums continues to be around 0% The termination of the distribution agreement with Sydbank and Nykredit has a negative impact on regular premiums of approx. 10% in Q1-Q Assumptions: Full recognition as income of risk return No recognition as income from shadow account The assumed pre-tax result for 2018 has been reduced by DKK 20m to DKK m Due to a lower result on sales and administration 20

21 Solvency cover Q Solvency capital requirement 3,643 3,116 3,200 Own funds 6,348 6,370 7,513 1) Solvency cover 174% 204% 235% 1) Not adjusted for dividend for

22 Profit forecast model for 2018 Profit forecast 2018 Results (DKKm) 2017 Forecast June 2018 Forecast Septem ber 2018 Non-life insurance - Technical result 1,622 1,000 1,050 1,200 1,250 - Investment return after return and revaluations of non-life insurance provisions etc Profit on non-life insurance 1,909 1,050 1,150 1,280 1,380 Life insurance Parent company etc Pre-tax profit 2,235 1,330 1,470 1,540 1,680 Taxation (502) (280) (320) (340) (380) Profit for the year 1,733 1,050 1,150 1,200 1,300 1) 1) The profit forecast model for 2018 is based on the rates on the financial markets as of the end of Q Due to the negative financial markets the investment return from 1/10-12/ has been around DKK 50m pre-tax lower than assumed in the profit forecast model for

23 Profit forecast model for 2019 Assumptions for profit forecast model for 2019 CR of excl. run-off Positive premium growth in non-life insurance Based on Termination of distribution agreements in 2018 for Life (I/A) with Nykredit and Sydbank Effect of around 0.2pp decrease Automatic indexing of 2.0% Effect of around 1.4% Weather-related claims: DKK 170m Large-scale claims (gross above DKK 5m): DKK 100m Additional expenses due to investment in digitisation etc pp negative effect on CR Efficiency gains from previously years investment in digitisation etc. and a slightly improved insurance risk Approx. positive effect on CR Expense ratio of around 16 A level of interest rates corresponding to the interest rate curve on 28 September

24 Yield Yield

25 Disclaimer This presentation includes statements relating to the future. Such statements are uncertain and involve both general and specific risks. Many factors may cause a significant deviation from the forecasts and assumptions set out in the presentation. Such factors could be, for example, cyclical movements, changes in the financial markets, the financial effect of unexpected events like acts of terror or exceptional weather conditions, changes in Danish and EU rules, competitive factors in the insurance industry and trends in the reinsurance market. See also Investor Risk management. The above description of risk factors is not exhaustive. Investors and others, who may base decisions relating to Topdanmark on statements relating to the future, should give their own careful consideration to these and other factors of uncertainty. Topdanmark s statements relating to the future are solely based on information known at the time of the preparation of the Interim Report for Q1-Q

26 Appendix 26

27 Financial calendar Announcement of 2018 Annual Results 24 Jan 2019 Deadline for submitting items for AGM agenda 19 Feb Annual Report 21 Feb 2019 AGM 03 Apr 2019 Q Interim Report 25 Apr Half-year Report 18 July 2019 Q1-Q Interim Report 24 Oct

28 Share profile Focused strategy Danish player Stable insurance risks Low expense ratio Limited financial risk Synergy between life and non-life Efficient top line growth Profitable growth in that order High net result No protection against a take-over in the Articles of Association The Topdanmark share is a value case not a growth case 28

29 Top Topdanmark More joint and more profitable synergies focusing on best practice within the Topdanmark Group Stronger execution power, across the entire Group (Life and Non-life) Economies of Scale fewer meetings of prioritisation, more meetings of execution With time: one customer IT platform 2 Type of Customers The customer journey within B2C and B2B must reflect the full experience across divisions Base proactive and personalised customer service on knowledge and data Base good customer loyalty on customer journeys and a joint approach to customer service for B2C and B2B, by building bridges between the two. 3 Distribution Channels Direct sales, partner sales and digital sales Focus on all distribution channels to ensure growth, retention and additional sales

30 How to Differentiate Ourselves? Non-life and Life Any insurance requirements within Non-life, Life and Pension are covered by the Topdanmark Group joint customers will experience advantages from this. Customer Relation We provide focused services (insurance and security) on time and proactively when customer requirements can be predicted, by use of experience and data. Market Access We offer the purchase of insurance, through the most suitable channels: Distribution Partners Digitally Personal Risk Management We know the risk and quote the right price. We contribute to damage prevention and security. Commitment and Leadership Future Technology Execution

31 2001-Q Trend in technical result DKKm (40) Q Q Q Q Q Snowloading claims 1) 3rd and 4th largest storms in Denmark Q ) Changed accounting practice as of 1 January 2016 cf. Accounting practice in Q report Comparative figures have not been adjusted 31

32 Comparison CR 2012 Q1-Q Danish business ) 2) Incl. run-off Excl. run-off 1) From 2012 to Scandinavian business 2) From 2012 to H

33 Comparison CR excl. run-off 2012 Q1-Q group level ) 2) 3) 4) 2) 2) Topdanmark Tryg Codan Alm. Brand Gjensidige If GF Forsikring Alka Lærerstandens Købstædernes 5) 2) Brandforsikring Forsikring 1) From 2012 to Scandinavian business 2) From 2012 to H ) From 2012 to H adjusted for extraordinary conditions 4) From 2012 to H and 2016 adjusted for extraordinary conditions 5) From 2012 to 2017 Comparative figures have not been adjusted 33

34 Ratios by segments Personal SME Group Q1-Q Q1-Q Q1-Q Q1-Q Q1-Q Q1-Q Premium grow th Gross loss ratio (%) Net reinsurance ratio (%) Claims trend (%) Gross expense ratio (%) Combined ratio (%) CR adjusted for run-off (%)

35 Normal earnings (DKKm) Non-life CR = 91 DKK 9.1bn x 9.5pp 870 Run-off (CR effect 1.7pp) DKK 9.1bn x 1.7pp 150 Life 160 Parent company etc. 50 Risk premium assets: DKK 5bn x 2% 100 Equities: DKK 1.0bn x 7% 70 Pre-tax profit 1,400 Tax (300) Post-tax profit 1,100 35

36 Premium classification Premiums classified by products 2008 Premiums classified by products Q1-Q % 7.4% 13.8% 27.1% 7.2% 35.5% 16.0% 16.2% 9.2% 27.5% 10.9% 23.0% Personal Motor Personal Motor Agricultural SME Agricultural SME Workers' Compensation Illness/accident and unemployment Workers' Compensation Illness/accident and unemployment 36

37 Entry barriers Example based on experience from Topdanmark: Premium volume DKK 1,000m portfolio in personal market CR = 90 or a profit of DKK 100m Expense ratio 18%, of which 10% new business Premium profile (%) Age of policies number of years Total = 100% Combined ratio Age of policies number of years Weighted CR Total = 90 37

38 Entry barriers Example based on experience from Topdanmark: Premium volume DKK 1,000m portfolio in personal market CR = 90 or a profit of DKK 100m Expense ratio 18%, of which 10% new business Accumulated profit shows result of new business after x years (20) (40) (60) (80) (100) Profit (DKKm) Age of policies number of years (50) (100) Accumulated profit (DKKm) Age of policies number of years Total = DKK 100m Profit 20+ = DKK 100m Milestones 38

39 Non-life insurance How to make money Assumptions: Shareholders equity 40% of premiums earned Combined ratio 91.0 (claims + costs)/premiums earned Return on shareholders equity 5% Return on operations: Income Expenditure ~ ROE = 23% ROE: 5% Pre-tax ROE 28% 39

40 Large-scale and weather-related claims Large-scale claims net of reinsurance (DKKm) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full year Large-scale claims are defined as gross claims exceeding DKK 5m. Comprise property claims in SME. Assumed weather-related claims (DKKm) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full year Weather-related claims (DKKm) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full year ,000 1, Comprise property claims exceeding DKK 4.5m per event. 40

41 Breakdown of run-off profits/losses Run-off profits / losses, net of reinsurance Full year Q3 Q3 Q1-Q3 Q1-Q3 (DKKm) IIIness / accident Workers' compensation (0) 8 (3) Third party and comprehensive Other (2) Total run-off profits, net of reinsurance

42 Run-off net of reinsurance as percentage of premiums % Q1-Q Comparative figures have not been adjusted 42

43 Cooperation with Coop Coop is the largest supermarket chain in Denmark counting 1,750,000 customers >800,000 customers use the Coop app Digital set-up Simple, modular products Competitive prices Digital first in Sales, Service and Claims handling Push strategy insurances must be sold Fully integrated with Coop s bonus scheme for members Launch Soft launch of Coop motor insurances in April 2018 Other products to be launched later Contents, accident, house etc. 43

44 Road accidents in Denmark 44

45 Autonomous car classification Source: Autoliv and Danske Bank 45

46 Maximum estimated collision reduction (vs. level 0) Expected development of German carpark Source: Morgan Stanley, BCG and Danske Bank 46

47 Life insurance Normal return Assumptions: Shareholders equity in Topdanmark Liv: DKK 2,000m Investment return on shareholders equity: 2.0% CR illness and accident 100.0% Earnings, asset management 0.15% 47

48 Life insurance Normal return (DKKm) Return on life insurance: Normal return Investment return on shareholders' equity 40 Sales and administration (15) Insurance risk 5 Risk return on shareholders' equity 140 Asset management ~13% ROE Other life-related results: Life-related non-life (disability, health, critical illness, unemployment insurance etc.) 15 Other synergies in e.g. distribution ~16% ROE 48

49 Distribution channels Non-life 2017 Life % 5% 12% 36% 18% 36% 3% 31% 4% 48% Insurance Sales Reps. Telephone sales etc. Brokers Car Dealers and Home Danske Bank Danica Pension Insurance Sales Reps. Others (banks etc.) Brokers Head Office and Life Sales Staff 49

50 Market shares Non-life insurance Q Life insurance % 17.8% 6.6% 5.5% 1.3% 29.8% 8.6% 3.4% 4.0% 8.8% 5.0% 16.8% 5.6% 7.2% 9.6% 10.5% 17.6% 21.8% Tryg Topdanmark Codan Alm. Brand Gjensidige if Lærerstanden Alka Forsikring GF-Forsikring Others PFA Pension Danica Pension Nordea Liv & Pension Topdanmark Liv SEB Pension AP Pension Skandia Alm. Brand 50

51 Consensus obtained before publication of the Interim Report for Q1-Q Financial highlights for (consensus for ) Highlights: Consensus Gross premiums earned, non-life 8,889 9,116 8,967 8,858 8,985 9,202 9,366 Non-life insurance: Technical result 765 1,289 1,184 1,320 1,622 1,302 1,364 Investment return after return and revaluation of non-life insurance provisions Profit on non-life insurance 1,361 1,803 1,325 1,712 1,909 1,403 1,549 Life insurance Parent company etc Pre-tax profit 1,875 2,010 1,530 1,942 2,235 1,674 1,820 Tax (407) (452) (360) (407) (502) (367) (407) Profit for the year 1,468 1,558 1,170 1,536 1,733 1,308 1,411 Ratios (%): Claims trend Expense ratio Combined ratio Combined ratio excl. run-off Pay-out ratio

52 Capital situation 2018 DKKm October 2018 Shareholders' equity beginning of ,497 Intangible assets (965) 5,532 Dividend for 2017 (1,710) Assumed post-tax profit 2018 (mean value) 1,250 Change, intangible assets (100) 3,822 Change in shareholders' equity (issue and utilization of options) 200 1,350 Assumed shareholders' equity for solvency, end of ,172 Estimated required shareholders' equity cover for solvency ,400 Excess capital ,772 Subordinated loan capital: DKK 400m tier 1 loan capital, call in 2022 without expiry date DKK 500m tier 2 loan capital, call in 2020, expiry in 2025 DKK 850m tier 2 loan capital, call in 2021, expiry in 2026 Solvency requirement, 30 September ,200 Own funds, 30 September ,513 52

53 Solvency requirement (SCR) and own funds for the Topdanmark Group (DKKm) Q Solvency requirement 7, ,200 2, , *Bonus risk means the insufficient risk absorbing impact of the bonus potentials by interest group for life provisions 53

54 Macroeconomics for Denmark % 2018E 2019E GDP growth Private consumption Public consumption Inflation Unemployment rate Government debt % of GDP Government balance % of GDP (0.4) (0.1) Current account % of GDP Source: Danske Research ( 54

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