machine design, Vol.7(2015) No.4, ISSN pp

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1 machine design, Vol.7(205) No.4, ISSN pp Research paper ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AUTOMATED CAR PARKING SYSTEM PROJECT Radoslav TOMOVIĆ, * - Rade GRUJIČIĆ University of Montenegro, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Podgorica, Montenegro Received ( ); Revised ( ); Accepted ( ) Abstract: This paper presents a methodological approach to assessing the risks that occur during the development of new products. The risk is considered as a possibility of adverse and unforeseen events. Analysis and risk assessment is developed for the construction of The Automated Car Parking System, which implementation is underway at the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering in Podgorica. This paper presents a method of performing risk analysis and assessment, which is applied to a concrete example. Key words: risk management, risk analysis, risk assessment, the automated car parking system. INTRODUCTION Considering that the concept of risk is present in almost all areas of human activity, there are various of its definition. The risk can be considered as a possibility of adverse events. Analysis and risk management are areas that are, perhaps, the most studied in the field of economic science, although their influence to other spheres of human life should not be negligible, so special attention should be paid on it. As the process of constructing is a highly responsible process that predominantly affects all further stages in the product realization and greatly determines its lifetime, it is especially important to perform a risk analysis during the product development. Faults occurred at this stage have extremely negative impact on all other stages in the lifetime of the product by reducing its overall success and, non rarely, endangering the life and safety of people. The influence of faults on the economic aspect of the product is also dominant. If removal of the fault in the product development stage costs one euro, its elimination in the production stage will cost ten euros and if the fault is discovered after delivering the product to the customer, the cost will amount to a hundred euros (the so-called rule of the lever of quality, shown in Figure ) []. Designing Production planning Production 00: 0: : Product quality improvement and reduce of costs of quality Fig.. The lever of quality In order to increase product quality and reduce the number of faults, simultaneous work of professionals and good communication with the environment using modern methods, techniques and technical resources in the design process of products are required. This paper presents a methodological approach to risk assessment during product development. The methodological process of analysis and risk assessment is applied on The Automated Car Parking System design that is being developed at the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering in Podgorica. 2. THE CAUSES OF THE RISKY EVENTS IN THE DESIGNS Throughout history, the catastrophic events and the accident resulted in the loss of human lives and considerable material losses. They were being caused by: an unforeseen external factors or the design faults within the foreseen exploitation conditions. Earthquakes, floods, fires, hurricanes and other disasters can be considered as unforeseen external factors, although they are phenomena that can be (according to the previous experiences) predicted in a certain extent and the unwanted consequences of their actions avoided or mitigated. Another possible cause of adverse events are design faults, which are be comprised of faults in calculating and sizing, choice of materials, manufacturing, inspection, maintenance, etc. The occurrence of catastrophic accidents has led to changes in the approach to the design of structures and the introduction of a series of rules and regulations. The risks that were not being considered previously are carried out now as a mandatory segment of the process of planning and designing. However, those events that could endanger the life and safety of people are not the only ones that shall be considered as risky, although they have a dominant influence on the project realization. Certain events can have very important impact on the possibility of the development and implementation of the project / product and the economic aspect of the entire design process. During the deliberation of ideas, it is very important to consider all aspects that affect the development of the *Correspondence Author s Address: University of Montenegro, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering Podgorica, Džordža Vašingtona bb, 8000 Podgorica, Montenegro, radoslav@ac.me

2 product and make a selection of ideas by providing objective answers to the following questions [2]:. Preliminary selection: Is it possible to implement the proposal on the basis of the expected development of science and technology? Is it possible to implement the proposal based on the knowledge and technology that company owns? 2. Interaction with the environment: Does the proposal meets the customers needs and desires? What is the assessment of the demand of the product on the market? Is there any similar product already on the market? What are the characteristics of the competing company? Is the showing up of the new competing company expected? Is the proposed solution more advanced than the leading ones, or at least at the same level as solutions already presented in a particular market segment? 3. Interaction with the production system: What is the value of the proposal in relation to the utilization of production capacity? What is the value of the proposal in relation to the effectiveness of the production system? What amount of resources is needed to be invested in development (internal and external resources)? Is it possible to provide the necessary funding? How fast will the invested funds get back? What are the possibilities for design development (individual, cooperation, purchase licenses)? What are the possibilities for technological adoption (individual, cooperation, purchase licenses)? What are the production possibilities (individual, cooperation, by integration, by development of new facilities etc.)? Therefore, the assessment of implementations' possibility should be reviewed using the above-mentioned questions in order to minimize the economic and technical risk for the development of the concerned product. After verification of the ability of realization and the validity of the discussed ideas, technical task needs to be formulated and submitted to design i.e. development department. Technical task, created as a result of consideration of the needs and requirements for the product, is input into the product design process. 3. RISK MANAGEMENT According to the ISO 3000 standard, risk management is the identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities [3]. Risk management also includes the assessment, analysis and evaluation of risks. After the process of risk analysis, it is necessary to evaluate the significance of the risk i.e. criteria, which may include additional costs or gains, socio-economic and environmental factors. All segments are individually evaluated and assessed. The risks with most important influence are determined, as well as ones 20 that can be accepted. The distinction is made between passive and active risk management. Passive risk management is typical for traditional approach. It is implemented by applying regulations and standards based on past events, experiences, research etc. The active risk management is common for modern approach and tends comprehensive risk prediction, even those that previously were not considered (such as the terrorist attack). Modern approach of risk management enables risk identification, measurement, understanding of potential consequences and taking measures for its mitigation or elimination. The concept of project risk management includes [4]: risk identification, the analysis and assessment of risk, definition of countermeasures, schedule of countermeasures, risk control and information management. Risk identification is the process of determination and classification of risky events that may have a negative impact on the project that is being implemented and may result in losses. Detailed analysis of the impact of individual risky events is done through: the exploration of the nature of risky events, analysis and assessment of probability of risky events emergence, analysis of interdependence and quantification of the risky events impact. Planning appropriate actions aimed at reducing the probability of the risk factors that carry an undesirable impact is considered as definition of countermeasures. Schedule of countermeasures represents a plan of protection from the risks. It can never be fully completed, due to constant reconsideration of newly identified useful features. Risk control implies the repetition of the previous steps of the analysis according to predefined plan (weekly, monthly, etc.) in order to obtain a more realistic view on risk. Information management refers to the preservation of the data about existing risks and specific project risks and creation of the various reports. 4. ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT OF INDIVIDUAL EVENTS The goal of risk analysis, as one of the most important stages in the management of risk, is the prediction of all possible risky events, a quantitative estimate of the probability and consequences of their occurrence and defining measures for their mitigation or elimination. There is the several different procedures of the risk assessment and one of them is The Methodological procedure. The Methodological approach to analysis and risk assessment defines the appropriate criteria in order to determine the quantitative risk assessment: P probability of occurrence of a risky event, P2 influence of a risky event on a task and P3 probability of a timely detection of the fault. Every risky event gets certain number of points (e.g. from to 0) for every criterion according to the predefined rating scales. In the specific case, the rating scales are defined in Tables,2 and 3.

3 Table. The rating scale for criterion P probability of occurrence of a risky event The risky event is not expected The risky event is not registered The risky event can be expected rarely 2 3 The risky event of this type wasn t registered in previous projects The risky event may reasonably be expected 4 6 The risky event of this type was registered in previous projects in a lesser extent The risky event may reasonably be expected in a greater extent 7 8 The risky event caused certain problems in the previous projects 9 0 The risky event is almost certainly expected Table 2. The rating scale for criterion P2 influence of a risky event on a task The risky event does not affect the implementation of the project The risky event does not significantly affect the implementation of the project The risky event affects the next stages in the project, where it may or may not endanger their implementation The risky event endangers the realization of the project and request its correction The risky event endangers the safety The risky event causes the violation of the mandatory regulations The risky event causes huge damage Table 3. The rating scale for criterion P3 probability of a timely detection of the fault The fault will be certainly discovered and immediately removed The fault is being detected and removed in next stages The fault is being detected and removed in next stages by a supervisory authority The fault is being detected in next stages and requires the customer notification The fault is being detected by a purchaser or a competent authority The overall risk factor R of a single event (which represents a quantitative assessment of a risky event) is obtained by multiplying the scores for all three criteria. Risk assessment is being defined based on the overall risk factor according to the Table 4. Table 4. The risk assessment definition R up to 200 over 200 up to 400 over 400 up to 600 over 600 up to 800 over 800 Risk is: negligible low acceptable high critical Rating scales and criteria can be (on a case-by-case basis) variously defined. The measures for risk prevention and elimination are being suggested as a protection plan after completing the assessment. 5. ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT OF OVERALL PROJECT RISK This raises the question of selecting appropriate methodology for evaluating overall project risk based on assessment of individual risky events. If the risky event is negligible, low or acceptable, it can be considered that an individual shall not substantially affect the implementation of the entire project. However, if it is high or even critical, its impact on the realization of an overall project is extremely important. Even in the preparatory stage, in that case, the appropriate measures that will certainly be able to reduce the risk of the event, or take it under control, must be proposed, otherwise the implementation of the entire project will be questionable. If it happens that at least one risky event is critical, the risk of implementation of the entire project would be (in this case) also critical, regardless of the evaluation of other risky events. This means that the assessment methodology based on the determination of the average value of the risk factor of the all risky events would not be relevant due to the impact of critical event on the average value is as same as impact of other ones. This means that there s a large possibility of a situation in which the overall project risk would not be assessed as critical, although there is a risky event which is critical. The previous method of determining the project risks could be improved by introducing coefficients for each of the five proposed assessment of risky events, such as that critical event wearing largest coefficient, a negligible risky event slightest. The factor of the project risk would be obtained, in that case, as a sum of product of coefficients and the total number of the corresponding events divided by the total number of anticipated risky events. However, the impact of a critical event can be muffled by the existence of a large number of the risks of lesser importance. Another problem of such a process of project risk assessment is a negligence of the total risky events number. For example, if there are two projects of which one of them predicts five acceptable risky events and the other one fifty events, the overall risk of realization of both projects would be assessed as acceptable. However, it would be logical that the risk of realization of the second project will be much higher because of the abundance of risky events. Table 5. The coefficients for assessment of overall project risk Ru The risk evaluation Coefficient k negligible 5 low 0 acceptable 00 high 300 critical 800 Based on the preceding analysis, we propose the methodology in which the corresponding coefficients are 2

4 defined for each grade of risky event, according to the Table 5. The overall factor of project risk Ru presents a sum of product of coefficients and the total number of the corresponding events. The overall project risk is being evaluated according to the Table 4. In this case, 60 events with negligible, eight with acceptable or only one event with critical risk would overall project risk lead to a critical value. 6. ANALYSIS AND RISK ASSESSMENT OF IMPLEMENTATION OF AUTOMATED CAR PARKING SYSTEM DESIGN The Automated Car Parking System design (Figure 2) is being developed at the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering in Podgorica. Fig.2. Schematic view of The Automated Car Parking System In fact, it is a construction that needs to be developed from scratch, so a special place in the design stage occupy the analysis and risk assessment. Considering this is a more complex design in whose development various of experts need to be included (mechanical, electrical and civil engineers...) it will be necessary to conduct a systematic approach, due to solving of problem, based on a comprehensive analysis and thorough approach to the problem. Therefore, the entire design process (from collection of information about existing structures of this type and the formation of alternative and conceptual design, to prototyping) is divided into several work packages which, according to a defined order, should be paid attention to by the methodological approach. Work packages, which are foreseen in the development of the design, are:. elaboration of technical task, 2. development of a logical model of the design, 3. development of a physical model of the design, 4. development of a structural model of the design, 5. development of the design details, 6. elaboration of manipulation, 7. the construction project, 8. elaboration of technology, 9. prototyping i 0. testing of the prototype and modification of the details. 22 Consideration of problems with the work package allows a more systematic approach to risk assessment of the design. In this case, each work package is observed individually and the possible risks are predicted for each of them, whereby the tabular provides a description of risky event, the criteria for risk assessment and the degree of fulfillment of these criteria on the predefined scale (in this case, on a scale from to 0). Each risky event gets the Ri.j mark, where i is the ordinal number of the work package and j is the ordinal number of the risk in the appropriate work package. The analysis and risk assessment of The Automated Car Parking System project is shown in the Table 6, while the Table 7 proposes the measures for the avoidance and elimination of risky events. Table 6. Assessment of risky events No Description of the risky event The task is not completely defined Faults in the list of demands Incorrectly defined the overall function of the system Undefined some partial and elementary functions Incomplete variation of the functional structure Incompletely developed criteria for the selection of the structural variants Bad choice of the logical model of the design elaborating solutions for the partial and elementary functions the development of the conceptual variants Incompletely developed criteria for the selection of the conceptual variants Bad choice of the physical model of the design the shape and position of the working bodies the variations of the kinematics of the working bodies The occurrence of the faults and shortcomings of some variant solutions Incorrect selection of the best solutions for partial functions P P2 P3 R Rating neglig neglig neglig low neglig neglig neglig low neglig neglig neglig neglig neglig neglig low

5 Table 6. Assessment of risky events (sequel) Incompletely developed criteria 4.5 for the selection of the project solution neglig. Bad choice of the 4.6 object model of the neglig. design 4.7 the development of the accept. project solution 5. The choice of some unfavorable accept. materials 5.2 sizing accept. the 5.3 workshop drawings low 5.4 assembly drawings low 5.5 calculation low 6. choosing control low units 6.2 the accompanying neglig. documentation 7. calculating the load neglig. on the foundation 7.2 the accompanying documentation neglig. Choice of an inappropriate 8. production neglig. technology technological and 8.2 installation neglig. documentation producing parts and 9. assemblies of the prototype low 9.2 prototype low assembling 0. testing low 0.2 test results of prototype testing low Table 7. Measures for avoidance and elimination of risky events Measures for avoidance and elimination of risky No. events Make a detailed analysis of the parameters of vehicles. designs and so far in the world developed systems for automatic parking of vehicle Comprehensively consider the demands of the design, as well.2 as technological features of the contractor; harmonize the list of the demands with the task Define overall function according to the precise definition of 2. the task Consider overall function; use methodological approach for 2.2 finding as many functions Use methodological approach for finding as many structural variants; consider possibility of simultaneous execution of 2.3 some partial and elementary functions; vary the order of their execution, if possible 2.4 Check the list of demands and harmonize criteria with it Use methodological approach in selecting by using the 2.5 selection list created according to the precisely defined criteria harmonized with the list of demands; more professionals should rate every single structural variant Consider all prior developed solutions for partial functions and all of physical effects for solving the elementary 3. functions; use methodological approach which definitely enables finding a lot of high-quality solutions Use methodological approach in creating conceptual variants by combining some partial and elementary functions using 3.2 the system of tolerance which also enables finding more variant solutions 3.3 Check the list of demands and harmonize criteria with it Use methodological approach in selecting by using the selection list created according to precisely defined criteria harmonized with the list of demands, make a quantify 3.4 definition of criteria significance and a level of achievement according to predefined scale; more professionals should rate every single conceptual variant Check physical principles; use methodological approach in 4. shaping in order to develop more solutions Harmonize shape and position of bodies with the 4.2 requirements in terms of kinematics Make consideration of all variant solutions in detail using methodological approach, perform analysis of faults and 4.3 imperfections and define measures for their avoidance and elimination Use methodological approach in selecting using selection list created according to precisely defined criteria harmonized with the list of demands, make a quantify definition of 4.4 criteria significance and a level of achievement according to predefined scale; more professionals should rate every single conceptual variant 4.5 Check the list of demands and harmonize criteria with it Use methodological approach for finding as many project 4.6 variants; use selection list with precisely and comprehensively defined criteria 4.7 Get back on the previous steps Make analysis and calculation in detail according to the 5. chosen material; thoroughly consider and analyse all exploitation conditions 5.2 More professionals should control calculation Do optimization of construction details; control of the 5.3 drawings is necessary to be carried out by designer, cartoonist, responsible person, sequencer with standards Do optimization of construction details; control of the 5.4 drawings is necessary to be carried out by designer, cartoonist, responsible person, sequencer with standards Do the optimization of construction details; more 5.5 professionals should control calculation Use methodological approach for finding as many solutions; 6. more professionals should take a part in rating solutions 6.2 More professionals should take a part in controlling 7. More professionals should take a part in controlling results 7.2 More professionals should take a part in controlling Consider technological features of the contractor in detail; 8. consider ability and validity in development of new processing technologies 8.2 More professionals should take a part in controlling Examine constructional and technological documentation in detail; do previous, current and final control; after producing, 9. apart of visual control do verification of shape and size, control supporting elements radiographically or ultrasonically 9.2 More professionals should take a part in controlling Verification should be done by a qualified person; use the 0. most reliable verification method; control supporting elements radiographically or ultrasonically 0.2 Use more different verification methods; control supporting elements radiographically or ultrasonically The risk factors of the individual events R are graphically shown in Figure 3. In this particular case, 33 risky events for realization of The Automated Car Parking System project are predicted and their values are sublimated in the Table 8. 23

6 The numeration of the risky events The risk factor R Proper risk analysis in the process of the product development is very important due the faults made at this stage are being transferred and multiplied in all other stages of the product life cycle, with an extremely detrimental impact on the overall success of the product and, sometimes, the life and safety of people. The methodological approach to the process of analysis and risk assessment minimizes the impact of subjective assessments, provides a guarantee for reliable estimation and provides a comprehensive analysis whereby nothing would be left out or left to chance during the project realization. By the proposed methodological approach the analysis of risky events that may occur in the implementation of the design and the overall objective risk assessment of The Automated Car Parking System project implementation are presented. Fig.3. Graphically view of the individual event risk factor values Table 8. The overall factor of project risk The risk Coefficient Number of evaluation k events n k n negligible low 0 0 acceptable high critical The overall factor of project risk Ru 505 There are 9 negligible, low and three acceptable risks. The overall factor of project risk is Ru=505. According to the Table 4, the overall project risk is acceptable. 7. CONCLUSION The concept of risk is present in almost all areas of human activity. Timely and properly assessment and prediction of possible project risks is very important in order to minimize, monitor and control the possibility or impact of adverse events and maximize the expected success. 24 REFERENCES [] Tomović, R. (2000). Primjena savremenih metoda konstruisanja u razvoju proizvoda mašinske industrije, Magistarski rad, Univerzitet Crne Gore, Mašinski fakultet, Podgorica. [2] Tomović, R. (204). Osnovi konstruisanja, Univerzitet Crne Gore, Mašinski fakultet, Podgorica. [3] The concept of risk and risk management in the economy, 04%20mr%20Marija%20Jovanovic_Pojam%20rizika %20i%20upravljanje%20rizikom%20u%20ekonomij i.pdf, accessed on [4] The Risk management, accessed on [5] Parkmatic, accessed on [6] Bulatović, R. (20). Mašinski elementi I, Univerzitet Crne Gore, Mašinski fakultet, Podgorica.