LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: Results from EMPEA s 2018 Global Limited Partners Survey

Transcription

1 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: Results from EMPEA s 2018 Global Limited Partners Survey An EMPEA webcast with expert panelists from AP2, Time Partners and Capital Dynamics

2 Upcoming EMPEA events Register now for Emerging Markets Private Equity Week in Washington, DC 14 May 2018: 8th Annual Institutional Investors-Only Summit May 2018: 20th Annual IFC/EMPEA Global Private Equity Conference 15 May 2018: 20 th Anniversary Celebration 17 May 2018: EMPEA Private Equity Masterclass To register, please visit globalpeconference.com Join us in São Paulo for EMPEA s 4 th Private Equity Masterclass in Brazil 6 June 2018 (following Congresso ABVCAP on 4-5 June) EMPEA and ABVCAP members receive complimentary registration with the member code: SP2018 For more information on these events and other EMPEA programming, please contact programs@empea.net. 1 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

3 Today s agenda Introduction from panelists Survey overview and methodology Presentation of key findings and panel discussion Audience Q&A 2 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

4 Today s speakers Camilla Axvi Head of Private Equity, External Managers AP2, Andra AP-fonden Mark Florman CEO Time Partners Janusz Heath Managing Director and Head of Investment Management, Emerging Markets Capital Dynamics Jeff Schlapinski Director, Research EMPEA Rae Winborn Manager, Research EMPEA 3 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

5 EMPEA s 2018 Global Limited Partners Survey Survey Overview and Methodology

6 Respondent profile Respondents by Institution Type Respondents by Headquarter Region Pension fund 4% 3% Development finance institution (DFI) 5% 5% North America 8% 25% Fund of funds/private markets advisor 7% Western Europe 9% Endowment/foundation 7% 42% Emerging Asia Family office Developed Asia 10% 21% Bank/asset manager Insurance company 9% Latin America and Caribbean Africa 18% Government agency or fund 25% Middle East Sovereign wealth fund In February and March 2018, EMPEA surveyed 116 representatives from 107 different limited partners (LPs) headquartered across 36 countries collectively representing more than US$358 billion in reported global PE assets under management and US$5.7 trillion in total AUM to gather their views on emerging markets private equity (EM PE). 5 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

7 Respondent profile (continued) Disclosed Distribution of Current Committed Capital in Global PE Portfolio* 92% Percentage of respondents currently invested in at least one EM PE fund 78% Percentage of respondents who have been investing in EM PE funds for more than five years 20% SSA, 1% MENA, 1% CIS, 0.2% Percentage allocation to EM in the PE portfolio of the average surveyed institution* *Excludes investors with EM-only mandates. CEE, 0.7% 6 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

8 Results summary EM on the upswing? A higher proportion of respondents* plans to increase the dollar value of their commitments to EM PE than in any edition of the survey since 2014 Emerging Asia divergence Asian geographies lead EMPEA s 2018 market attractiveness rankings and LP return expectations Perceived political risk and currency risk, as well as return premiums that would justify commitments, are higher for EM geographies outside of Asia Venture capital and private credit may figure more prominently in LPs future investment plans Most LPs do take social and environmental impact into account, but few have dedicated allocations Manager selection LPs appear more likely to expand commitments to country-dedicated and sector-specific GPs than to multi-strategy fund managers Most LPs are neutral or cautious, but not opposed to EM PE fund managers use of fund subscription lines of credit Return drivers and value creation Middle-market funds are expected to generate the highest net returns for the 2017 vintage GPs ability to drive operational improvement are expected to have the biggest impact on returns from 2017-vintage EM PE funds Half of survey respondents believe EM PE fund managers value creation abilities are behind those of their DM counterparts *Excludes investors with EM-only mandates. 7 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

9 EMPEA s 2018 Global Limited Partners Survey Key Findings and Panel Discussion

10 Overall commitment levels Has LP sentiment toward EM PE turned a corner? Anticipated Level of New Commitments to EM PE Funds over the Next Two Years, * (% of Respondents) LPs Planned Changes to Proportion of Total PE Allocation Targeted at EM PE over the Next Two Years, * (% of Respondents) 18% 36% 23% 15% 24% 25% 9% 36% 9% 39% 41% 33% 31% 29% 36% 39% 38% 38% 38% 39% 46% 45% 56% 46% 38% 12% 12% 8% 11% 9% 9% 13% 22% 13% 25% 26% No change planned Slightly higher Significantly higher Slightly lower Significantly lower Decrease No change planned Increase *Excludes investors with EM-only mandates. 9 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

11 % of Respondents Overall commitment levels (continued) LPs reasons for increasing commitments to EM PE appear to be evolving Anticipated Level of New Commitments to EM PE Funds over the Next Two Years By PE AUM* LPs' Reasons for Beginning or Increasing Commitments to EM PE Funds over the Next Two Years, * 70% Above US$10B 22% 33% 60% 50% US$1B-US$10B 16% 37% 40% 30% 20% US$100m-US$1B 10% 60% 10% Under US$100m 75% 0% The risk-return profile of emerging markets has improved relative to developed markets % of Respondents We expect EM PE to deliver high returns relative to other EM investment opportunities Decrease Increase We are seeking greater diversification in our portfolio *Excludes investors with EM-only mandates. 10 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

12 % of Respondents % of Respondents Returns satisfaction and future expectations LPs satisfaction with returns is marginally higher, and expectations for the future have increased EM PE Portfolio Performance Relative to Expectations, * 16% 14% 13% 10% 11% Net Return Expectations of 16% or More for Select Markets, % 60% 50% 62% 61% 57% 59% 62% 40% 30% 20% 22% 25% 30% 31% 27% 10% % Performed better than expected Performed in line with our expectations Performed worse than expected *Excludes LPs that felt it too soon to assess the performance of their portfolios. Developed markets overall Southeast Asia Latin America (excl. Brazil) Emerging markets overall Russia/CIS Sub-Saharan Africa 11 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

13 2018 market attractiveness rankings Southeast Asia leads the pack, followed by neighboring Asian markets The Attractiveness of Emerging Markets for GP Investment over the Next 12 Months In Southeast Asia, demographics power consumption. There are opportunities to leapfrog to internetenabled solutions, as well as huge scope for health care investments. DFI 12 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

14 Attractiveness rankings historical analysis Southeast Asia and India have been the least and most volatile, respectively Market Attractiveness Rankings Historical Analysis Mean, Dispersion and Total Capital Raised Central and Eastern Europe is relatively undervalued. Growth rates in these markets are higher than in developed markets, and exchange rates are expected to be stable over the next two years relative to the euro. DFI Note: Southeast Asia was classified as "Other Emerging Asia" in 2010 and 2011 (and prior to that, not included in the survey). Sub-Saharan Africa was classified as "Africa (excl. South Africa)" from 2008 through 2010 and MENA as "Middle East" from 2008 through Turkey replaced South Africa (subsequently omitted) in the 2011 survey. "Total capital raised" figures are drawn from the EMPEA Industry Statistics (data as of 31 December 2017). 13 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

15 Deterrents to investing Factors Likely to Deter LPs from Investing in Individual Emerging Markets/Regions Within the Next Two Years* Already at recommended exposure Historical performance Limited number of established fund managers Oversupply of funds (too competitive) Scale of opportunity to invest is too small Entry valuations are too high Weak exit environments Challenging regulatory/ tax issues Prefer exposure via other asset classes Political risk Currency risk China 26% 5% 5% 19% 2% 14% 10% 31% 21% 36% 17% India 24% 17% 17% 7% 5% 24% 24% 24% 17% 10% 29% Southeast Asia 15% 6% 42% 3% 15% 9% 18% 24% 15% 18% 30% Russia/CIS 9% 11% 21% 0% 11% 0% 18% 36% 12% 70% 33% Turkey 7% 7% 21% 0% 14% 2% 18% 26% 16% 72% 42% Central and Eastern Europe 15% 10% 27% 0% 27% 0% 17% 15% 24% 22% 17% Brazil 27% 15% 12% 7% 2% 5% 17% 29% 15% 39% 59% Latin America (excl. Brazil) Middle East and North Africa 13% 13% 34% 0% 25% 3% 25% 25% 16% 34% 53% 11% 15% 41% 0% 26% 0% 24% 24% 15% 50% 37% Sub-Saharan Africa 10% 12% 44% 0% 29% 0% 34% 37% 15% 61% 51% *Indicates percentage of respondents answering for each region/market. 14 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

16 Desired return premiums With the exception of CEE, higher perceived political and currency risk are associated with higher expected return premiums Return Premium over Developed Markets That Would Justify Decision to Commit to EM PE Funds (Mean Respondent, Basis Points) Russia/CIS 764 Turkey Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa 649 Central and Eastern Europe 545 Latin America (excl. Brazil) Brazil Southeast Asia India China 413 Emerging markets overall LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

17 Fund strategies The proportion of respondents planning to begin or expand investing in venture capital and private credit funds has increased since the 2016 edition of the survey Planned Changes to EM PE Investment Plans over the Next Two Years Fund Strategies (% of Respondents) Venture capital 8% 15% 37% Growth equity 5% 46% Private credit 1% 13% 34% Infrastructure 6% 6% 25% Buyout 10% 26% Real estate 9% 7% 15% Decrease or stop investing Begin investing Expand investment 16 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

18 A closer look at private credit While commitments to private credit are rising, most LPs do not have dedicated private credit teams Planned Changes to EM Private Credit Investment Plans by Institution Type (% of Respondents) Team or Department Responsible for Private Credit Investment Decisions (% of Respondents) DFI or government agency 72% Dedicated private credit team Endowment/foundation/family office 59% 30% 24% Private equity team Fixed income team Multi-asset class team Pension fund 5% 45% 19% Other (unidentified) Bank/asset manager/insurer 18% 18% 8% Not invested in private credit Begin or expand investing Decrease or stop investing 17 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

19 Attractiveness of technology areas Respondents express strongest conviction in e-commerce and fintech Most Attractive Technology Areas for EM Investment over the Next Two Years (% of Respondents) E-commerce and logistics 27% 22% 9% Fintech 28% 16% 11% Life sciences and health technology 14% 19% 12% Cleantech* 13% 7% 16% Agtech 3% 8% 13% Big data and cloud services 3% 10% 11% Edtech 4% 8% 7% Social media and entertainment 3% 3% 7% Machine learning and automation 3% 4% 4% Most attractive 2nd most attractive 3rd most attractive *Includes renewable power and energy storage. 18 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

20 Consideration of impact vs. impact investing Most LPs take impact into account, but few have dedicated allocations Does Your Institution Take Social or Environmental Impact into Account When Making Investment Decisions?* Percentage of PE Portfolio Dedicated to Impact Investing* 4% 23% 8% 77% Yes No 15% 70% No allocation 1-5% 6-10% 11-20% 21-30% More than 30% *Excludes DFIs, government agencies and investors with impact-only mandates. Proportions indicate the percentage of respondents for each answer choice. 19 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

21 Manager selection Most LPs are adding at least some new EM PE fund manager relationships Number of New EM PE Fund Manager Relationships Expected in the Next Three Years (% of Respondents) Effect of EM PE Fund Manager's Use of Subscription Credit Lines on Decision to Commit (% of Respondents) More than 15 7% % 18% More likely to commit % 8% 35% Neutral More cautious, but not a deal breaker % Would not commit Not sure % 37% 0 5% 20 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

22 Means of accessing EM opportunities Will LPs favor country-dedicated and sector-specific fund managers to multi-strategy GPs? LPs' Planned Changes to Means of Accessing EM PE Investment Opportunities over the Next Two Years (% of Respondents) Consultants/gatekeepers* 5% 15% Separate accounts* 3% 10% 13% Funds of funds* 9% 4% 18% Co-investment* 9% 51% Direct investment 4% 4% 37% Non-traditional or alternative fund structures 3% 11% 20% First-time EM PE fund managers 8% 8% 13% Multi-strategy fund managers** 9% 5% 10% Sector-specific fund managers 2% 8% 29% Country-dedicated fund managers 5% 7% 25% Begin to use Expand use Decrease or stop use *Responses exclude funds of funds and private markets advisors. **Multi-strategy fund managers includes GPs with multiple funds dedicated to different asset classes and/or geographies. 21 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

23 Fund size vs. commitment size Mid-size funds are expected to generate the highest net returns 2017-vintage Fund Size Segment Expected to Generate the Highest Net Returns (% of Respondents) Minimum and Maximum Commitment Sizes to EM PE Funds by Institution Type Max. commitment (median respondent) 15% 6% Less than US$100m Min. commitment (median respondent) US$100m-US$249m 33% US$250m-US$499m US$500m-US$999m US$1 billion or more 43% 22 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

24 Return drivers and value creation LPs indicate GPs operational skills will have the biggest impact on future performance Return Drivers Expected to Have the Biggest Effect on the Performance of 2017-vintage EM PE Funds EM PE Fund Managers' Value Creation Abilities in Comparison to DM Peers (% of Respondents) GPs' ability to drive operational improvement 17% 21% 25% Overall economic growth in emerging markets 23% 20% 14% Entry multiples 25% 19% 12% 15% 15% Far behind Appetite from strategic buyers at exit 11% 19% 18% 7% Slightly behind About the same Exchange rates 13% 9% 16% 6% 34% Slightly better Significantly better I'm not sure Public market conditions at exit 11% 11% 12% 24% Use of leverage 1% % of Respondents Most impactful 2nd most impactful 3rd most impactful 23 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

25 Q&A Camilla Axvi Head of Private Equity, External Managers AP2, Andra AP-fonden Mark Florman CEO Time Partners Janusz Heath Managing Director and Head of Investment Management, Emerging Markets Capital Dynamics Jeff Schlapinski Director, Research EMPEA Rae Winborn Manager, Research EMPEA 24 LP Outlook for Emerging Markets: EMPEA s 2018 Global LP Survey Results

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