UNDERSTANDING THE STOCK MARKET CORRECTION

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1 UNDERSTANDING THE STOCK MARKET CORRECTION EmergingWealth Investment Management, Inc Corporate Drive, Suite 360 Pittsburgh, PA Phone: (412) Legend Financial Advisors, Inc Corporate Drive, Suite 350 Pittsburgh, PA Phone: (412)

LOU STANASOLOVICH, CFP, CCO, CEO Lou is founder, CCO, CEO and President of Legend Financial Advisors, Inc. and EmergingWealth Investment Management, Inc.

2 LOU STANASOLOVICH, CFP, CCO, CEO Lou is founder, CCO, CEO and President of Legend Financial Advisors, Inc. and EmergingWealth Investment Management, Inc. Legend s founder, Lou was selected by Financial Planning magazine as part of their inaugural Influencer Awards for the Wealth Creator Award recognizing the advisor who has made the most significant contributions to best practices for portfolio management. He is one of only four advisors nationwide to be selected 12 consecutive times by Worth magazine as one of The Top 100 Wealth Advisors in the country. Lou has also been selected 13 times by Medical Economics magazine as one of The 150 Best Financial Advisors for Doctors in America Lou has been selected five times by Dental Products Report as one of The Best Financial Advisors for Dentists in America. He has twice been named one of The 100 Great Financial Planners in America by Mutual Funds magazine. Lou has been named three times to Investment Advisor magazine s IA 25 list, ranking the 25 most influential people in and around the financial advisory profession. Lou was profiled in Financial Planning magazine as one of the country s Movers & Shakers recognizing the top individuals who have done the most to advance the financial advisory profession. Lou has also been selected three times by Pittsburgh Magazine as one of the Pittsburgh area s FIVE STAR Wealth Managers, a list that represents the most elite financial advisors in Pittsburgh. With over 30 years advising clients, he has shared his financial planning and investment management expertise through dozens of speeches, radio and television broadcasts, webcasts, and hundreds of times as an interviewee, writer and publisher.

3 ARE WE HEADED FOR A TRAIN WRECK? Source:

4 MARKET FLUCTUATIONS What Past Market Declines Can Teach Us A History Of Declines (January 1, 1900 February 28, 2018) Type of Decline Percentage Decline Number of Declines Average Frequency Dip -5.0% to -10.0% 389 About 3 times a year Correction -10.0% to -15.0% 126 About once a year Severe Correction -15.0% to -20.0% Included in corrections total About once every 2 years Bear Market* -20.0% to -30.0% 17 About once every 6.25 years Severe Bear Market* -30.0% or more 14 About once every 8.25 years Average Length 46 days 115 days 216 days 11 months 22.8 months * Either a Bear Market or a Severe Bear Market occurs approximately every 3.7 years. Source: American Funds Distributors, Inc., Bloomberg, Dow Jones, Ned Davis Research, Edward Jones, The Leuthold Group, LLC

5 As of: March 12, 2018 Source: Legend Financial Advisors, Inc. REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM LEGEND FINANCIAL ADVISORS, INC.

6 2018 YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE January 1, 2018 to March 9, The Correction The Return Year-To-Date Return Since Correction Performance 1/26/18 to 2/8/18 2/8/18 to 3/9/18 S&P 500 Index (U.S. Stock Market) 4.63% % 8.21% Russell 2000 Index (U.S. Stock Market) 4.22% -8.93% 9.24% MSCI EAFE Index (Developed Foreign Equities) -0.07% -7.37% 1.24% MSCI Emerging Market Index (Equities) 4.40% -8.63% 3.95% Newedge CTA Index (Managed Futures) -3.08% -9.21% 0.62% Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index-Total Return (USD)** -0.24% -4.18% 1.09% Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index-Total Return (USD)** -6.74% -8.86% 5.12% Gold Bullion 1.12% -2.60% 0.54% Compound and Total Returns include reinvested dividends. Newedge Index is equally-weighted. ** USD = U.S. Dollar SOURCE: BLOOMBERG INVESTMENT SERVICE COPYRIGHT 2018 LEGEND FINANCIAL ADVISORS, INC. REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION OF LEGEND FINANCIAL ADVISORS, INC.

7 ECONOMIC CONTRACTION DEFINITIONS Recession: Two or more consecutive quarters of contracting real GDP. Severe or Deep Recession: A Recession where real GDP contracts between 5% and 10%. Depression: A Recession with peak-to-trough contraction in real GDP that exceeds 10%. Great Depression: A Depression with peak-to-trough contraction in real GDP that exceeds 25%. Source: Legend Financial Advisors, Inc. COPYRIGHT 2018 LEGEND FINANCIAL ADVISORS, INC. REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION OF LEGEND FINANCIAL ADVISORS, INC.

MONTHLY RISK AVERSION INDEX (RAI) RISK INDEX INCREASES SLIGHTLY-STILL NEAR LOWEST LEVEL EVER Note: The Risk Aversion Index combines ten market-based measures including various credit and swap

9 MONTHLY RISK AVERSION INDEX (RAI) RISK INDEX INCREASES SLIGHTLY-STILL NEAR LOWEST LEVEL EVER Note: The Risk Aversion Index combines ten market-based measures including various credit and swap spreads, implied volatility, currency movements, commodity prices and relative returns among various high- and low-risk assets As of: March 7, 2018 COPYRIGHT 2018 THE LEUTHOLD GROUP, LLC Source: The Leuthold Group, LLC, Perception Express, March 7, 2018,

FIVE-YEAR CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP RATES FOR DEVELOPED COUNTRIES JANUARY 1, 2008 THROUGH MARCH 7, 2018 Australia 11.978 France 17.321 Germany 9.370 Norway 10.912 Switzerland 10.350 Japan 20.

10 FIVE-YEAR CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP RATES FOR DEVELOPED COUNTRIES JANUARY 1, 2008 THROUGH MARCH 7, 2018 Australia France Germany Norway Switzerland Japan United Kingdom m United States S&P U.S. Dollar As of: March 7, 2018 SOURCE: BLOOMBERG INVESTMENT SERVICE COPYRIGHT 2018 LEGEND FINANCIAL ADVISORS, INC.

FIVE-YEAR CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP RATES FOR MAJOR U.S. FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS JANUARY 1, 2008 THROUGH MARCH 7, 2018 Citigroup 49.702 Bank of America 47.267 Goldman Sachs 60.

11 FIVE-YEAR CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP RATES FOR MAJOR U.S. FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS JANUARY 1, 2008 THROUGH MARCH 7, 2018 Citigroup Bank of America Goldman Sachs Wells Fargo m J.P. Morgan S&P U.S. Dollar As of: March 7, 2018 SOURCE: BLOOMBERG INVESTMENT SERVICE COPYRIGHT 2018 LEGEND FINANCIAL ADVISORS, INC.

S&P 500 GOLDEN/DEATH CROSS STRATEGY ANALYSIS DECEMBER 31, 1999 TO MARCH 7, 2018 S&P 500 50 Day Moving Average S&P 500 200 Day Moving Average S&P 500 Index -2.

12 S&P 500 GOLDEN/DEATH CROSS STRATEGY ANALYSIS DECEMBER 31, 1999 TO MARCH 7, 2018 S&P Day Moving Average S&P Day Moving Average S&P 500 Index -2.36% % % % % +1.25% % % As of: March 7, 2018 SOURCE: BLOOMBERG INVESTMENT SERVICE COPYRIGHT 2018 LEGEND FINANCIAL ADVISORS, INC.

13 S&P 500 GOLDEN/DEATH CROSS STRATEGY ANALYSIS DECEMBER 31, 1999 TO MARCH 7, 2018 S&P Day Moving Average S&P Day Moving Average S&P 500 Index -2.36% % % % % +1.25% % % As of: March 7, 2018 SOURCE: BLOOMBERG INVESTMENT SERVICE COPYRIGHT 2018 LEGEND FINANCIAL ADVISORS, INC.

18 1929 S&P 500 BUBBLE As of: January 3, 2018 COPYRIGHT 2018 GMO, LLC Source: Robert Shiller, Compustat, Worldscope, S&P, National Association of Realtors via GMO, Viewpoints, January 3, 2018, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION GMO, LLC

19 1989 JAPANESE EQUITY BUBBLE As of: January 3, 2018 COPYRIGHT 2018 GMO, LLC Source: Robert Shiller, Compustat, Worldscope, S&P, National Association of Realtors via GMO, Viewpoints, January 3, 2018, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM GMO, LLC

20 2000 S&P 500 TECH BUBBLE As of: January 3, 2018 COPYRIGHT 2018 GMO, LLC Source: Robert Shiller, Compustat, Worldscope, S&P, National Association of Realtors via GMO, Viewpoints, January 3, 2018, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM GMO, LLC

21 2007 HOUSING BUBBLE As of: January 3, 2018 COPYRIGHT 2018 GMO, LLC Source: Robert Shiller, Compustat, Worldscope, S&P, National Association of Realtors via GMO, Viewpoints, January 3, 2018, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM GMO, LLC

22 WHAT THINGS LOOK LIKE TODAY As of: November 21, 2017 COPYRIGHT 2018 GMO, LLC Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, LLC, Bloomberg via GMO, Viewpoints, January 3, 2018, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM GMO, LLC

23 WHAT IT WOULD TAKE TO MAKE THE S&P 500 A CLASSIC BUBBLE As of: January 3, 2018 COPYRIGHT 2018 GMO, LLC Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, LLC, via GMO, Viewpoints, January 3, 2018, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM GMO, LLC

24 ADVANCE-DECLINE January 1, 1929 To October 31, 1929 As of: January 3, 2018 COPYRIGHT 2018 GMO, LLC Source: S&P, Bloomberg, NYSE, Global Financial Data via GMO, Viewpoints, January 3, 2018, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM GMO, LLC

25 STRANGE LAST MINUTE WARNINGS 1929 CRASH 1929: S&P VERSUS LOW PRICE INDEX As of: January 3, 2018 COPYRIGHT 2018 GMO, LLC Source: S&P, FTSE via GMO, Viewpoints, January 3, 2018, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM GMO, LLC

26 STRANGE LAST MINUTE WARNINGS 1972 NIFTY FIFTY 1972: S&P Versus Low Price Index As of: January 3, 2018 COPYRIGHT 2018 GMO, LLC Source: S&P, FTSE via GMO, Viewpoints, January 3, 2018, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM GMO, LLC

27 S&P PEAKS TWO YEARS AFTER ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE ( ) As of: January 3, 2018 COPYRIGHT 2018 GMO, LLC Source: S&P, Bloomberg, NYSE via GMO, Viewpoints, January 3, 2018, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM GMO, LLC

28 STRANGE LAST-MINUTE WARNINGS IN 2000: TECH STOCKS BREAK AND BALANCE OF MARKET CONTINUES UP As of: January 3, 2018 COPYRIGHT 2018 GMO, LLC Source: S&P, FTSE, NYSE via GMO, Viewpoints, January 3, 2018, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM GMO, LLC

29 YEAR-TO-DATE GAINS OF U.S. QUALITY UNIVERSE VERSUS S&P 500 The quality universe is the top quartile of companies in the U.S. sorted by GMO s proprietary quality score. The junk universe is the bottom quartile of companies in the U.S. sorted by GMO s proprietary quality score. As of: November 30, 2017 COPYRIGHT 2018 GMO, LLC Source: S&P, Bloomberg via GMO, Viewpoints, January 3, 2018, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM GMO, LLC

30 P/E SHILLER PRICE/EARNINGS RATIOS Long-Term Stock Market P/E Valuations Fell A Bit In December-Still In Highest Valuation Levels Note: Created by Robert J. Shiller, Professor at Yale University, this Price Earnings Ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years (Each year of earnings is inflated and quoted in current dollars), known as the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio, also known as the Shiller PE Ratio, or PE 10 Ratio. Because this factors in earnings from the previous ten years, it is less prone to wild swings in any one year. The bad news: Because of the current high P/E valuation of returns on the S&P 500 are likely to be in the very low single digits over the next ten years. Black Tuesday Black Monday Great Time To Buy Good Time To Buy Terrible Time To Buy As of: March 9, 2018 REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION OF LEGEND FINANCIAL ADVISORS, INC. Source: COPYRIGHT 2018 LEGEND FINANCIAL ADVISORS, INC.

U.S. STARTING VALUATIONS HAVE DEMONSTRATED A STRONG IMPACT ON FUTURE RETURNS Subsequent nominal returns (annualized)* Current level: 33.

31 U.S. STARTING VALUATIONS HAVE DEMONSTRATED A STRONG IMPACT ON FUTURE RETURNS Subsequent nominal returns (annualized)* Current level: * Median of the annualized subsequent returns calculated at each month end, using Shiller P/E and S&P 500 monthly returns from December 31, 1927 to November 21, 2014 As of: March 9, 2018 Source: Robert Shiller Online Data; Via PIMCO

32 100 YEARS OF BEAR MARKET RECOVERIES (DJIA: ; S&P to Present) As Of: December 31, 2017 Source: The Leuthold Group

33 BEAR MARKET DECLINES OF 45% OR MORE 100 YEARS OF BEAR MARKET RECOVERIES (DIJA: ; S&P 500 TO PRESENT) As Of: December 31, 2017 Source: The Leuthold Group

34 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE September 3, 1929 July 8, 1932 Note: Price change -89.2% Source of Information: Bloomberg COPYRIGHT 2018 LEGEND FINANCIAL ADVISORS, INC. REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION OF LEGEND FINANCIAL ADVISORS, INC.

35 RETURNS NEEDED TO REACH BREAK-EVEN POINTS AFTER LOSSES PERCENTAGE LOSS 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 40.00% 45.00% 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% PERCENTAGE RETURN NEEDED TO REACH BREAK-EVEN 5.26% 11.11% 17.65% 25.00% 33.33% 42.86% 53.85% 66.67% 81.82% % % % % % % % % % %

37 S&P 500 COMPOSITE BEAR MARKETS DECLINES FROM ALL-TIME HIGHS As of: December 31, 2017 Source: FactSet, NBER, Robert Shiller, Standard & Poor s J.P. Morgan Asset Management COPYRIGHT 2018 J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION OF J.P. MORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT

Shaded Areas Represent OECD-Defined Global Recession Periods As of: October 31, 2017 Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc. via CMG Capital Management Group, Inc.

38 Shaded Areas Represent OECD-Defined Global Recession Periods As of: October 31, 2017 Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc. via CMG Capital Management Group, Inc., COPYRIGHT 2017 CMG CAPITAL MANAGEMENT GROUP, INC. On My Radar, October 31, 2017, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM CMG CAPITAL MANAGEMENT GROUP, INC.

39 As of: September 30, 2017 Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc. via CMG Capital Management Group, Inc., COPYRIGHT 2017 CMG CAPITAL MANAGEMENT GROUP, INC. On My Radar, March 17, 2017, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM CMG CAPITAL MANAGEMENT GROUP, INC.

40 Percent Change COPPER IS FAR OUTPERFORMING THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE 25.0% 20.0% Five-Year Average ( ) % 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% JAN-31 FEB-29 MAR-31 APR-30 MAY-31 JUN-30 JUL-31 AUG-31 SEP-30 OCT-31 NOV-30 DEC-31 As of: October 13, 2017 COPYRIGHT 2017 U.S. GLOBAL INVESTORS Source: Bloomberg via U.S. Global Investors, Advisor Alert,, October 13, 2017, REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION FROM U.S. GLOBAL INVESTORS

As of: March 13, 2018 SOURCE: BLOOMBERG INVESTMENT

49 LEGEND S INVESTMENT OUTLOOK NEXT TWO YEARS: BRIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF TROUBLE

50 THE FUTURE INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT I. Debt (Buy And Hold Strategy) Investment Return Expectation Next 10 Years A. Low Single Digit Returns For High Quality-Rated Fixed Income Investments B. Lower Quality Fixed And Variable Rate Investments Mid-Single Digit Return Expectations II. Expected Equity Investment Returns Next 10 Years (Buy And Hold Strategy) A. U.S. Equity Returns Approximately 0.0% to 2.0% B. Foreign Developed Equities Returns Approximately 30.0% Higher Than U.S. Equities But Very Volatile C. Emerging Market Equities Returns Approximately 50.0% Higher Than U.S. Equities But Extremely Volatile D. U.S. REITs Returns Approximately 2.0% to 4.0%

51 FUTURE INVESTMENT STRATEGY: NEXT 10 YEARS I. Debt Investments A. High Quality Bonds 1. Avoid During Periods Of Rising Interest Rates 2. Embrace When The Federal Reserve Is Lowering Interest Rates (Recession) B. Lower Quality Debt Investments 1. Embrace When Interest Rates As They Are Being Increased By The Federal Reserve 2. Avoid During Recessionary Periods

52 FUTURE INVESTMENT STRATEGY: NEXT 10 YEARS (continued) II. Equity Investments A. Growth Stocks 1. Embrace Growth Stocks As Interest Rates Are Rising 2. Avoid Growth Stocks When A Recession Is Occurring B. Value Stocks 1. Embrace Value Stocks As The Economy Begins To Grow After A Recession 2. Avoid When A Recession Occurs

54 CONTACT INFORMATION EmergingWealth Investment Management, Inc Corporate Drive, Suite 360 Pittsburgh, PA Phone: (412) Legend Financial Advisors, Inc Corporate Drive, Suite 350 Pittsburgh, PA Phone: (412)

THE DO'S AND DON'TS OF STOCK SELECTION

A Publication of Wealth Advisor Publishing, Inc. Brings you the following Webcast THE DO'S AND DON'TS OF STOCK SELECTION PRESENTED BY: LOUIS P. STANASOLOVICH, CFP CCO, CEO AND PRESIDENT 5700 CORPORATE