The Economics of LNG Export Contract Flexibility: a quantitative approach
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1 The Economics of LNG Export Contract Flexibility: a quantitative approach Yichi Zhang, Chi Kong Chyong, Pierre Noël EPRG, University of Cambridge EPRG Winter Research Seminar 07 December
2 Contents Introduction: Gas market and long term contracts (LTC) Research questions Methodology: Value of LNG contracts flexibility Gas market equilibrium model Results: Impact of LTC flexibility on prices Impact of LTC flexibility on producer profits and market efficiency. Sensitivity analysis Conclusion 2
3 Introduction: Gas market and long term contracts (LTC) Golden Age for Natural Gas? IEA: Gas consumption could rise more than 50% over the next 25 years. Massively expanding unconventional gas in North America. Uncertainty about nuclear power after Fukushima Surging gas demand, especially in emerging markets (e.g, China, India, Middle East) 3
4 Introduction: Gas market and long term contracts (LTC) Price divergence in the different regional markets Figure: Trends in the Prices of Global Gas Market (US$/Mbtu) Japanese LNG buyers push for more flexible contracts 4
5 Introduction: Gas market and long term contracts (LTC) Long-term Contracts (LTC) - little flexibility Length of years The price of LTC gas is linked to the price of oil Take-or-pay (ToP) term (typical: 80%-120%) Spot Markets fully flexible Price decoupled from the oil price Liberalisation of the gas markets Henry Hub (HH, US) ; National Balancing Point (NBP, UK); Title Transfer Facility (TTF, EU); Japan Korea Maker (JKM, Pacific Asia) 5
6 Introduction: Research questions With more flexible LNG contracts, will producers gain more profits? will consumers have more surplus? will the whole market efficiency increase? 6
7 Contents Introduction: Gas market and long term contracts (LTC) Research questions Methodology: Value of LNG contracts flexibility Gas market equilibrium model Results: Impact of LTC flexibility on prices Impact of LTC flexibility on producer profits and market efficiency. Sensitivity analysis Conclusion 7
8 Methodology: Value of LNG contract flexibility (a) With fixed LTC (b) With flexible LTC Buyer: Country B Buyer: Country B Buyer: Country C Contracted Spot market Contracted Spot market Spot market Contracted Seller: Country A Seller: Country A Value of LTC flexibility: differences in producer profits, consumer surplus and market efficiency between two scenarios Time frame:
9 Methodology: Global gas market model Concept: Maximization of the profit of each market player (producers, suppliers, pipeline transmitters, LNG operators) under a series of constraints. Model assumptions: Demand curves for spot prices are calibrated at assumed elasticity and reference price-quantity pairs; LTC price linked with oil price; Producers are assumed with market power The LTC to North America and United Kingdom are already fully flexible, 9
10 Methodology: Global gas market model Extend the market in the model from Europe to worldwide Aggregate nearby markets into blocs of consumption regions Red: net importers Green: net exporters Blue: exporters and importers 10
11 Methodology: Data source Data Production Capacities Liquefaction/Regasification capacities LNG Shipping Cost Source IEA World Energy Outlook (2011), BP Statistic Review (2011, 2012) IGU (2010, 2011) EIA (2003) and online distance voyage distance calculator Production and other costs Golombek (1995), Chyong and Hobbs (2011) Reference Consumption Long-term contract volumes Reference Price BP statistic Review (2011, 2012), IEA WEO (2010, 2011) Bloomberg LNG contract database Platts (Japan JKM), Bloomberg (NBP, TTF, Oil), IEA Energy Price and Tax 2004, 2007,
12 Contents Introduction: Gas market and long term contracts (LTC) Research questions Methodology: Value of LNG contracts flexibility Gas market equilibrium model Results: Impact of LTC flexibility on prices Impact of LTC flexibility on producer profits and market efficiency. Sensitivity analysis Conclusion 12
13 US$/Tcm Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 US$/Tcm Results: Impact of LTC flexibility on prices Spot price series in the past JKM NBP HH 600 Spot price series in the future JKM 0% flexibility JKM 100% flexibity NBP 0% flexibility NBP 100% flexibility HH 0% flexibility HH 100% flexibility
14 Profits of All Producers (Billion US$) Results: Impact of LTC flexibility on producer profits Figure: Profits of All Producers with 0% Flexibility and 100% Flexibility from 2012 to % flexibility 0% flexibility
15 Profit of producers (Billion US$) Results: Impact of LTC flexibility on producer profits Figure: Profit of Producers with 0% Flexibility Others Russia Nigeria United Kingdom Trinidad Lybia Qatar Norway North America Malyasia Indonesia China Australia Table: Average Change in Profits as LTC flexibility becomes 100% Country Average Change Australia % China % Indonesia % Malyasia % North America -2.08% Norway -7.95% Qatar % Lybia -8.59% Trinidad % UK % Nigeria -5.24% Russia -3.45% Others 5.02% 15
16 Consumer Surplus (Billion US$) Results: Impact of LTC flexibility on welfare Consumer surplus : the difference between the total amount that consumers are prepared to pay and the total amount that they actually pay. Social welfare= Profit of all producers + Total consumer surplus Figure: (a) Consumer Surplus and (b) Social Welfare with 0% Flexibility and 100% Flexibility % flexibility 100% flexibility (a) (b) 16
17 Results: Sensitivity analysis on elasticity of spot gas markets With higher elasticity of demand the negative change in producer profit brought by LTC flexibility is smaller; the positive change in consumer surplus brought by LTC flexibility is smaller; LTC flexibility has a smaller value on social welfare increase. With lower elasticity of demand, changes have the opposite directions. 17
18 Results: Sensitivity analysis on production capacity Increasing production capacity by 20% the negative impact of LTC flexibility on producer profits is larger; the positive change in consumer surplus is larger; LTC flexibility has a smaller value in increasing social welfare. Decreasing production capacity by 20%, Changes have the opposite directions. 18
19 Conclusion With more flexible LNG contracts, will producers gain more profits? No will consumers surplus increase? Yes will the whole market efficiency increase? Yes Open questions and future work: The liquefaction and regasification capacities are considered but not the LNG shipping capacities. More detailed modelling in the North America market. 19
20 Many Thanks! Contact: 20
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