The Economics of LNG Export Contract Flexibility: a quantitative approach

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "The Economics of LNG Export Contract Flexibility: a quantitative approach"

Transcription

1 The Economics of LNG Export Contract Flexibility: a quantitative approach Yichi Zhang, Chi Kong Chyong, Pierre Noël EPRG, University of Cambridge EPRG Winter Research Seminar 07 December

2 Contents Introduction: Gas market and long term contracts (LTC) Research questions Methodology: Value of LNG contracts flexibility Gas market equilibrium model Results: Impact of LTC flexibility on prices Impact of LTC flexibility on producer profits and market efficiency. Sensitivity analysis Conclusion 2

3 Introduction: Gas market and long term contracts (LTC) Golden Age for Natural Gas? IEA: Gas consumption could rise more than 50% over the next 25 years. Massively expanding unconventional gas in North America. Uncertainty about nuclear power after Fukushima Surging gas demand, especially in emerging markets (e.g, China, India, Middle East) 3

4 Introduction: Gas market and long term contracts (LTC) Price divergence in the different regional markets Figure: Trends in the Prices of Global Gas Market (US$/Mbtu) Japanese LNG buyers push for more flexible contracts 4

5 Introduction: Gas market and long term contracts (LTC) Long-term Contracts (LTC) - little flexibility Length of years The price of LTC gas is linked to the price of oil Take-or-pay (ToP) term (typical: 80%-120%) Spot Markets fully flexible Price decoupled from the oil price Liberalisation of the gas markets Henry Hub (HH, US) ; National Balancing Point (NBP, UK); Title Transfer Facility (TTF, EU); Japan Korea Maker (JKM, Pacific Asia) 5

6 Introduction: Research questions With more flexible LNG contracts, will producers gain more profits? will consumers have more surplus? will the whole market efficiency increase? 6

7 Contents Introduction: Gas market and long term contracts (LTC) Research questions Methodology: Value of LNG contracts flexibility Gas market equilibrium model Results: Impact of LTC flexibility on prices Impact of LTC flexibility on producer profits and market efficiency. Sensitivity analysis Conclusion 7

8 Methodology: Value of LNG contract flexibility (a) With fixed LTC (b) With flexible LTC Buyer: Country B Buyer: Country B Buyer: Country C Contracted Spot market Contracted Spot market Spot market Contracted Seller: Country A Seller: Country A Value of LTC flexibility: differences in producer profits, consumer surplus and market efficiency between two scenarios Time frame:

9 Methodology: Global gas market model Concept: Maximization of the profit of each market player (producers, suppliers, pipeline transmitters, LNG operators) under a series of constraints. Model assumptions: Demand curves for spot prices are calibrated at assumed elasticity and reference price-quantity pairs; LTC price linked with oil price; Producers are assumed with market power The LTC to North America and United Kingdom are already fully flexible, 9

10 Methodology: Global gas market model Extend the market in the model from Europe to worldwide Aggregate nearby markets into blocs of consumption regions Red: net importers Green: net exporters Blue: exporters and importers 10

11 Methodology: Data source Data Production Capacities Liquefaction/Regasification capacities LNG Shipping Cost Source IEA World Energy Outlook (2011), BP Statistic Review (2011, 2012) IGU (2010, 2011) EIA (2003) and online distance voyage distance calculator Production and other costs Golombek (1995), Chyong and Hobbs (2011) Reference Consumption Long-term contract volumes Reference Price BP statistic Review (2011, 2012), IEA WEO (2010, 2011) Bloomberg LNG contract database Platts (Japan JKM), Bloomberg (NBP, TTF, Oil), IEA Energy Price and Tax 2004, 2007,

12 Contents Introduction: Gas market and long term contracts (LTC) Research questions Methodology: Value of LNG contracts flexibility Gas market equilibrium model Results: Impact of LTC flexibility on prices Impact of LTC flexibility on producer profits and market efficiency. Sensitivity analysis Conclusion 12

13 US$/Tcm Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 US$/Tcm Results: Impact of LTC flexibility on prices Spot price series in the past JKM NBP HH 600 Spot price series in the future JKM 0% flexibility JKM 100% flexibity NBP 0% flexibility NBP 100% flexibility HH 0% flexibility HH 100% flexibility

14 Profits of All Producers (Billion US$) Results: Impact of LTC flexibility on producer profits Figure: Profits of All Producers with 0% Flexibility and 100% Flexibility from 2012 to % flexibility 0% flexibility

15 Profit of producers (Billion US$) Results: Impact of LTC flexibility on producer profits Figure: Profit of Producers with 0% Flexibility Others Russia Nigeria United Kingdom Trinidad Lybia Qatar Norway North America Malyasia Indonesia China Australia Table: Average Change in Profits as LTC flexibility becomes 100% Country Average Change Australia % China % Indonesia % Malyasia % North America -2.08% Norway -7.95% Qatar % Lybia -8.59% Trinidad % UK % Nigeria -5.24% Russia -3.45% Others 5.02% 15

16 Consumer Surplus (Billion US$) Results: Impact of LTC flexibility on welfare Consumer surplus : the difference between the total amount that consumers are prepared to pay and the total amount that they actually pay. Social welfare= Profit of all producers + Total consumer surplus Figure: (a) Consumer Surplus and (b) Social Welfare with 0% Flexibility and 100% Flexibility % flexibility 100% flexibility (a) (b) 16

17 Results: Sensitivity analysis on elasticity of spot gas markets With higher elasticity of demand the negative change in producer profit brought by LTC flexibility is smaller; the positive change in consumer surplus brought by LTC flexibility is smaller; LTC flexibility has a smaller value on social welfare increase. With lower elasticity of demand, changes have the opposite directions. 17

18 Results: Sensitivity analysis on production capacity Increasing production capacity by 20% the negative impact of LTC flexibility on producer profits is larger; the positive change in consumer surplus is larger; LTC flexibility has a smaller value in increasing social welfare. Decreasing production capacity by 20%, Changes have the opposite directions. 18

19 Conclusion With more flexible LNG contracts, will producers gain more profits? No will consumers surplus increase? Yes will the whole market efficiency increase? Yes Open questions and future work: The liquefaction and regasification capacities are considered but not the LNG shipping capacities. More detailed modelling in the North America market. 19

20 Many Thanks! Contact: 20

LNG market evolution, contracting & asset value

LNG market evolution, contracting & asset value LNG market evolution, contracting & asset value Timera Energy Sep 2013 Headlines A tight LNG market pre-2015 is likely to support the value of LNG supply flexibility But... several factors may structurally

More information

Russo-Ukrainian Strategic Gas Bargaining

Russo-Ukrainian Strategic Gas Bargaining Russo-Ukrainian Strategic Gas Bargaining Chi Kong Chyong EPRG, University of Cambridge EPRG E&E Seminar - 24 May 2010 Outline 1. Motivation and research questions 2. Main messages 3. Overview Gazprom s

More information

Asia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook and Drivers

Asia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook and Drivers 2018/FDM1/004 Session 2.1 Asia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook and Drivers Purpose: Information Submitted by: International Monetary Fund Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting Port Moresby, Papua

More information

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET AN INTERNATIONAL ENERGY FORUM PUBLICATION SEPTEMBER 2018 RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA SEPTEMBER 2018 SUMMARY FINDINGS FROM A COMPARISON OF DATA AND FORECASTS

More information

2015 Market Review & Outlook. January 29, 2015

2015 Market Review & Outlook. January 29, 2015 2015 Market Review & Outlook January 29, 2015 Economic Outlook Jason O. Jackman, CFA President & Chief Investment Officer Percentage Interest Rates Unexpectedly Decline 4.5 10-Year Government Yield 4 3.5

More information

European & Global Hub Markets:

European & Global Hub Markets: PatrickHeatherConsultancy European & Global Hub Markets: What does the future hold for hubs in the spot-priced gas market? Gas and LNG Supply Contracts Forum Berlin, 21 st June, 2018 The contents of this

More information

The U.S. Natural Gas Market in Focus

The U.S. Natural Gas Market in Focus The U.S. Natural Gas Market in Focus Current and Projected Supply and Demand Conditions for Flame 212 April 17, 212 Amsterdam, The Netherlands by Howard Gruenspecht, Acting Administrator U.S. Energy Information

More information

CHENIERE ENERGY. Corporate Presentation April 2008

CHENIERE ENERGY. Corporate Presentation April 2008 CHENIERE ENERGY Corporate Presentation April 2008 Safe Harbor Statement This presentation contains certain statements that are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements within the meaning of

More information

Oil Value Chain & Markets. Global Oil Markets

Oil Value Chain & Markets. Global Oil Markets Oil Value Chain & Markets Global Oil Markets World Oil Reserves WORLD OPEC Middle East Former Soviet Union Africa End 2006 End 2000 End 1990 End 1980 North America USA South & Central America Asia Pacific

More information

Chi Kong Chyong & David Reiner EPRG, Judge Business School University of Cambridge

Chi Kong Chyong & David Reiner EPRG, Judge Business School University of Cambridge How Integrated is an Integrated Oil and Gas Company (IOC)? Understanding how and why IOCs pursue alternative business models in global natural gas markets Chi Kong Chyong & David Reiner EPRG, Judge Business

More information

Chapter 1 International economy

Chapter 1 International economy Chapter International economy. Main points from the OECD's Economic Outlook A broad-based recovery has taken hold Asia, the US and the UK have taken the lead. Continental Europe will follow Investment

More information

Progress towards Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth. Figure 1: Recovery from Financial Crisis (100 = First Quarter of Real GDP Contraction)

Progress towards Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth. Figure 1: Recovery from Financial Crisis (100 = First Quarter of Real GDP Contraction) Progress towards Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth Figure 1: Recovery from Financial Crisis (100 = First Quarter of Real GDP Contraction) Source: OECD May 2014 Forecast, Haver Analytics, Rogoff and

More information

Asia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook. PFTAC Steering Committee Meeting March 27, 2018 Suva, Fiji

Asia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook. PFTAC Steering Committee Meeting March 27, 2018 Suva, Fiji Asia and the Pacific: Economic Outlook PFTAC Steering Committee Meeting March 27, 2018 Suva, Fiji 1 Growth in the region remains strong... Growth Projections: World and Selected Asia (Percent change from

More information

The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009

The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009 The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 29 Anoop Singh Asia and Pacific Department IMF 1 Five key questions

More information

Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund

Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund (percent YOY) 8 6 Real GDP Growth ASSUMPTIONS A more gradual monetary policy normalization 4 2 21 211 212

More information

JBIC Finance for Energy Efficiency Investment

JBIC Finance for Energy Efficiency Investment Asia ESCO Conference 2010 New Delhi, India 14-15 January, 2010 JBIC Finance for Energy Efficiency Investment ~ Over the Environment and Energy Constraint ~ Takashi Hongo Special Advisor and Head of Environment

More information

B.C. had little assured taxation revenue from an LNG industry. Royalties would only apply to the extraction volume of B.C. gas.

B.C. had little assured taxation revenue from an LNG industry. Royalties would only apply to the extraction volume of B.C. gas. Overview 2 2013: British Columbia Decided to Create an LNG Income Tax B.C. had little assured taxation revenue from an LNG industry. Royalties would only apply to the extraction volume of B.C. gas. BC

More information

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET AN INTERNATIONAL ENERGY FORUM PUBLICATION JUNE 2018 RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA JUNE 2018 SUMMARY FINDINGS FROM A COMPARISON OF DATA AND FORECASTS ON

More information

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET AN INTERNATIONAL ENERGY FORUM PUBLICATION NOVEMBER 2018 RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA NOVEMBER 2018 SUMMARY FINDINGS FROM A COMPARISON OF DATA AND FORECASTS

More information

EDF Trading. The wholesale energy market specialist. At a Glance

EDF Trading. The wholesale energy market specialist. At a Glance EDF Trading The wholesale energy market specialist At a Glance EDF Trading Group We are part of the EDF Group, a global leader in low-carbon energies. North America EDF Trading is a leader in the European

More information

Pipeline LTCs in the New World of European Natural Gas

Pipeline LTCs in the New World of European Natural Gas Pipeline LTCs in the New World of European Natural Gas Sergei Komlev and Alexey Gnatyuk Contract Structuring and Price Formation Directorate Gazprom Export 17 th Meeting of the EU-Russia GAC s Work Stream

More information

Global growth weakening as some risks materialise

Global growth weakening as some risks materialise OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Global growth weakening as some risks materialise 6 March 2019 Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE blog: oecdecoscope.wordpress.com

More information

Global/Regional Economic and Financial Outlook. Odd Per Brekk Director IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific APEC SFOM, June

Global/Regional Economic and Financial Outlook. Odd Per Brekk Director IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific APEC SFOM, June Global/Regional Economic and Financial Outlook Odd Per Brekk Director IMF Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific APEC SFOM, June 11-12 2015 2015/SFOM13/002 Session: 1 Global/Regional Economic and Financial

More information

Global Construction 2030 Expo EDIFICA 2017 Santiago Chile. 4-6 October 2017

Global Construction 2030 Expo EDIFICA 2017 Santiago Chile. 4-6 October 2017 Global Construction 2030 Expo EDIFICA 2017 Santiago Chile 4-6 October 2017 Graham Robinson Global Construction Perspectives Global Construction 2030 is the fourth in a series of global studies of the construction

More information

Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund

Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord

More information

LTCs: Reality of Margins Distribution on EU Gas Market

LTCs: Reality of Margins Distribution on EU Gas Market LTCs: Reality of Margins Distribution on EU Gas Market Sergei Komlev and Alexey Gnatyuk Contract Structuring and Price Formation Directorate Gazprom Export 2 th Meeting of the EU-Russia GAC s Work Stream

More information

ITEM 3B CURRENT STEEL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

ITEM 3B CURRENT STEEL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS ITEM 3B CURRENT STEEL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Steel Committee, September 2017 Fabien Mercier, Hokuto Otsuka, Filipe Silva Emails: fabien.mercier@oecd.org, filipe.silva@oecd.org Outline 1. Consumption 2. Production

More information

INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN

INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 12, 2014 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan

More information

PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012

PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012 PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 1 Working paper, September 1. Kindly authorized by the Author.

More information

Valuing the Risks and Returns to the Spot LNG Trading

Valuing the Risks and Returns to the Spot LNG Trading Valuing the Risks and Returns to the Spot LNG Trading Prepared for the 27th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, Houston, September 16-19, 2007 Hiroaki Suenaga School of Economics and Finance Curtin University

More information

[LNG MARKET ANALYSIS ] 1. LNG Market Analysis

[LNG MARKET ANALYSIS ] 1. LNG Market Analysis [ MARKET ANALYSIS ] 1 Market Analysis Market Analysis Volume: 4 th May 2018 [ MARKET ANALYSIS ] 2 and Natural Gas Price Assessment 23 rd April 4 th May 2018 Analysis prices remained stable to bullish due

More information

Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class

Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook for the Asset Class By Steffen Reichold Emerging Markets Economist May 2, 211 Emerging market debt has been one of the best performing asset classes in recent years due to

More information

Outlook Offshore Market Tianjin Offshore Forum Tianjin, PRC May th 2015

Outlook Offshore Market Tianjin Offshore Forum Tianjin, PRC May th 2015 Offshore Market May 215 Outlook Offshore Market Tianjin Offshore Forum Tianjin, PRC May 27-28 th 215 jan.4 jul.4 jan.5 jul.5 jan.6 jul.6 jan.7 jul.7 jan.8 jul.8 jan.9 jul.9 jan.1 jul.1 jan.11 jul.11 jan.12

More information

Progress Towards Strong, Sustainable, and Balanced Growth. Figure 1: Recovery From Financial Crisis (100 = First Quarter of Real GDP contraction)

Progress Towards Strong, Sustainable, and Balanced Growth. Figure 1: Recovery From Financial Crisis (100 = First Quarter of Real GDP contraction) Progress Towards Strong, Sustainable, and Balanced Growth Figure 1: Recovery From Financial Crisis ( = First Quarter of Real GDP contraction) 13 125 196-26 AE Recessions' Range*** 196-26 AE Recessions**

More information

The ever closer EU gas market and its monitoring by ACER

The ever closer EU gas market and its monitoring by ACER The ever closer EU gas market and its monitoring by ACER Dennis Hesseling Head of Gas Department EU-US Round Table, 26 April 2017, Arlington (VA) TITRE European and American gas hub prices are further

More information

Straits Asia Resources Limited

Straits Asia Resources Limited Straits Asia Resources Limited AGM CEO Presentation to Shareholders Martin Purvis 30 April 2010 Table of Contents 1 Company Snapshot 2 2009 Review 3 Market Outlook 4 Consolidating a Strong Foundation 5

More information

Global Equity Trading Volumes Surge 36% in 1 st half 2015 driven by Mainland China

Global Equity Trading Volumes Surge 36% in 1 st half 2015 driven by Mainland China EMBARGO: :1BST/1:1CET/19:1EDT Global Equity Trading Volumes Surge 36% in 1 st half 215 driven by Mainland China Global Equity Trading Volumes Ex Mainland China Up 5% Mainland China Share Trading Vols Rise

More information

Infrastructure Investment in Asia

Infrastructure Investment in Asia Economy Insight: A Synopsis of ADB Paper Infrastructure Investment in Asia Infrastructure Investment in Asia FICCI Research May 27, 2016 Good infrastructure plays a crucial role towards the growth of an

More information

ANGLO AMERICAN A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE

ANGLO AMERICAN A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE ANGLO AMERICAN A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE Anglo Coal Investor Roadshow November 2004 This presentation is being made only to and is directed only at (a) persons who have professional experience in matters relating

More information

Economic Outlook In the Shoes of an FOMC Member

Economic Outlook In the Shoes of an FOMC Member Economic Outlook In the Shoes of an FOMC Member This material must be read in conjunction with the disclosure statement. 9 April 2018 PRESENTED BY: MARKUS SCHOMER Chief Economist PineBridge Investments

More information

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET AN INTERNATIONAL ENERGY FORUM PUBLICATION AUGUST 2018 RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA AUGUST 2018 SUMMARY FINDINGS FROM A COMPARISON OF DATA AND FORECASTS

More information

Q Earnings Presentation. February 25, 2011

Q Earnings Presentation. February 25, 2011 Q 2010 Earnings Presentation February 25, 2011 Forward Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements (as defined in Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 193, as amended)

More information

WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK. Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division International Energy Agency / OECD

WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK. Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division International Energy Agency / OECD WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division International Energy Agency / OECD Global Strategic Challenges Security of energy supplies Threat of environmental

More information

Global Economic Management and Asia s Responsibility Masahiro Kawai Asian Development Bank Institute

Global Economic Management and Asia s Responsibility Masahiro Kawai Asian Development Bank Institute Global Economic Management and Asia s Responsibility Masahiro Kawai Asian Development Bank Institute PECC 18 th General Meeting Economic Crisis and Recovery: Roles for the Asia-Pacific Economies Washington,

More information

Advanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery

Advanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery Advanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery 23 November 2 Bauhinia Foundation Research Centre Masaaki Shirakawa Governor of the Bank of Japan Slide 1 Japan s Silver Yen and Hong Kong s Silver Yuan

More information

WHAT FUTURE FOR HEALTH AND LONG-TERM CARE SPENDING?

WHAT FUTURE FOR HEALTH AND LONG-TERM CARE SPENDING? WHAT FUTURE FOR HEALTH AND LONG-TERM CARE SPENDING? Christine de la MAISONNEUVE Joaquim OLIVEIRA MARTINS OECD The future of health spending and the implications for policy, Bruegel Panel Discussion Brussels,

More information

LE MARCHÉ DU GAZ EN 2015 ET SES PERSPECTIVES FOCUS SUR LE GNL

LE MARCHÉ DU GAZ EN 2015 ET SES PERSPECTIVES FOCUS SUR LE GNL LE MARCHÉ DU GAZ EN 2015 ET SES PERSPECTIVES FOCUS SUR LE GNL Convention Bilan et Perspectives AFG 24 mars 2016 Dr Thierry Bros Phone: +33 1 58 98 11 70 thierry.bros@sgcib.com Important Notice: The circumstances

More information

Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019

Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 October 2018 Russia: Macro Outlook for 2019 Natalia Orlova Head of Alfa Bank Macro Insights +7 495 795 36 77 norlova@alfabank.ru Egypt Saudi Arabia Brazil S. Africa UAE Iraq China Japan US Mexico UK Russia

More information

Investor Update. Rawi Corsiri Somruedee Somphong COO CFO. 13 November

Investor Update. Rawi Corsiri Somruedee Somphong COO CFO. 13 November Investor Update 13 November 2002 Rawi Corsiri Somruedee Somphong COO CFO Agenda Quarterly overview Results highlight Coal industry snapshot Business scenario 2 Quarterly overview Coal Business - Spot coal

More information

Economic outlook. Address by Central Bank Governor Svein Gjedrem to invited foreign embassy representatives. Norges Bank 18 March 2004

Economic outlook. Address by Central Bank Governor Svein Gjedrem to invited foreign embassy representatives. Norges Bank 18 March 2004 Economic outlook Address by Central Bank Governor Svein Gjedrem to invited foreign embassy representatives Norges Bank 1 March SG Diplomat 1.. Long-term interest rates Per cent 15 1 9 Norway US Germany

More information

Monetary Policy Report 1/12. Charts

Monetary Policy Report 1/12. Charts Monetary Policy Report / Charts Chart. Projected output gap¹) for Norway's trading partners. Percent. Q Q - - - - MPR / MPR / - - - - - 8 ) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between GDP

More information

2.) In graph A, the large country s equilibrium price after the quota is a. P 1 b. P 2 * c. P 3 d. P 4

2.) In graph A, the large country s equilibrium price after the quota is a. P 1 b. P 2 * c. P 3 d. P 4 AGEC 5343 Dr. Shida Henneberry Midterm II November 5, 2009 1.) In graph A, the import quota amount is represented by a. The distance between Q 1 and Q 3 b. The distance between Q 1 and Q 2* c. The distance

More information

Malaysia s export growth at record high in 2017

Malaysia s export growth at record high in 2017 Dr. Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid Chief Economist 03-2088 8075 afzanizam@bankislam.com.my Malaysia s export growth at record high in 2017 Facts Total exports in 2017 grew by 18.9% (2016: 1.2%) to RM935.4

More information

Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability

Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2016 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments

More information

Divergent Monetary Policy Implication for sub-saharan African Economies. By Sarah O. Alade Deputy Governor, Economic Policy Central Bank of Nigeria

Divergent Monetary Policy Implication for sub-saharan African Economies. By Sarah O. Alade Deputy Governor, Economic Policy Central Bank of Nigeria Divergent Monetary Policy Implication for sub-saharan African Economies By Sarah O. Alade Deputy Governor, Economic Policy Central Bank of Nigeria Crisis background The recent financial crisis is one of

More information

International Monetary Fund

International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF April 212 Towards Lasting Stability Global Economy Pulled Back from the Brink Policies Stepped

More information

M&A. Predictor? What is KPMG s M&A 13% Global M&A levels expected to stay strong in Capacity (net debt/ebitda) Appetite (Forward P/E ratios)

M&A. Predictor? What is KPMG s M&A 13% Global M&A levels expected to stay strong in Capacity (net debt/ebitda) Appetite (Forward P/E ratios) M&A February 2016 Predictor Global M&A levels expected to stay strong in 2016 After a strong year for M&A in key markets during 2015, analysts expect the world s largest corporates to maintain the positive

More information

Economic Integration in South East Asia and the Impact on the EU

Economic Integration in South East Asia and the Impact on the EU Economic Integration in South East Asia and the Impact on the EU Contents Executive summary... 4 1. Introduction... Error! Bookmark not defined. 2. Introduction to State of Economic Integration in South

More information

INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN

INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 11, 2015 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan

More information

Capital Markets Day. Global Trading. Claudio Machetti

Capital Markets Day. Global Trading. Claudio Machetti Capital Markets Day Global Trading Claudio Machetti Integrated model fit for digitalized, low carbon world Global portfolio optimization Integrated margin management Diversified global portfolio evolution

More information

Schroder Asian Income Monthly Fund Update

Schroder Asian Income Monthly Fund Update Schroder Asian Income Monthly Fund Update Fund Performance As at 30 September 2014, SGD 1 month Year to date Since launch* Schroder Asian Income Fund (Bid-Bid) (%) -1.7 8.4 35.2 Schroder Asian Income Fund

More information

The Relative Significance of EPAs in Asia-Pacific

The Relative Significance of EPAs in Asia-Pacific The Relative Significance of EPAs in Asia-Pacific 19 June 2014 Consulting Fellow, RIETI Kenichi Kawasaki 29 October 2011 Overview The relative significance of EPAs in Asia-Pacific TPP and RCEP are shown

More information

Trading at French PEGs. EFET workshop on Spanish Gas Hub - 23 July 2008

Trading at French PEGs. EFET workshop on Spanish Gas Hub - 23 July 2008 Trading at French PEGs EFET workshop on Spanish Gas Hub - 23 July 2008 Agenda GRTgaz project for the French market At the heart of the European market How can TSOs make a difference? The Basics Latest

More information

Market gas pricing: the role of hub trading

Market gas pricing: the role of hub trading PatrickHeatherConsultancy Market gas pricing: the role of hub trading International experience on gas trading development School of Management SKOLKOVO Energy Lectorium Moscow, 18 th October, 2017 The

More information

Looking Ahead on Oil & Gas

Looking Ahead on Oil & Gas Looking Ahead on Oil & Gas Art Berman NACE Investor Speaker Luncheon Palm Beach Gardens, Florida March 16, 217 Slide 1 Oil Prices Fell Below $5 Floor Last Week: Deflation of the OPEC Expectation Premium

More information

EU-28 STEEL SCRAP STATISTICS. by Rolf Willeke Statistics Advisor of the BIR Ferrous Division For EFR a branch of EuRIC (30 October 2017)

EU-28 STEEL SCRAP STATISTICS. by Rolf Willeke Statistics Advisor of the BIR Ferrous Division For EFR a branch of EuRIC (30 October 2017) EU-28 STEEL SCRAP STATISTICS (JANUARY JUNE 2017) by Rolf Willeke Statistics Advisor of the BIR Ferrous Division For EFR a branch of EuRIC (30 October 2017) C O N T E N T S EU-28 and World Crude Steel Production

More information

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai

More information

Jet Fuel Spot Markets & Price Reporting

Jet Fuel Spot Markets & Price Reporting Airline Treasury & Risk Management Forum Jet Fuel Spot Markets & Price Reporting Andrew Bonnington, Platts JET FUEL SPOT MARKETS AND PRICE REPORTING Andrew Bonnington Editorial Director, Strategic Oil

More information

CHENIERE ENERGY, INC.

CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. CHENIERE ENERGY, INC. FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR 2017 CONFERENCE CALL February 21, 2018 Safe Harbor Statements Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains certain statements that are, or may

More information

Outlook for the Mexican Economy Alejandro Díaz de León Carrillo, Governor, Banco de México. April, 2018

Outlook for the Mexican Economy Alejandro Díaz de León Carrillo, Governor, Banco de México. April, 2018 Alejandro Díaz de León Carrillo, Governor, Banco de México April, Outline 1 External Conditions Current Outlook.1. Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants in Mexico Evolution of Economic Activity Recent

More information

2017 Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook:

2017 Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook: 217 Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook: Preparing for Choppy Seas Ranil Salgado International Monetary Fund Asia and Pacific Department May 12, 217 OAP Seminar Key messages and roadmap The near-term

More information

Ndiame Diop, Lead Economist & Economic Advisor World Bank Indonesia BKPM, December 16, 2013

Ndiame Diop, Lead Economist & Economic Advisor World Bank Indonesia BKPM, December 16, 2013 Ndiame Diop, Lead Economist & Economic Advisor World Bank Indonesia BKPM, December 16, 2013 Overview of recent economic developments Framing the policy choices for the current account and growth in 2014

More information

Economic Outlook. Macro Research Itaú Unibanco

Economic Outlook. Macro Research Itaú Unibanco Economic Outlook Macro Research Itaú Unibanco June, 2013 Agenda Economia Global Heterogeneous growth: U.S. growing faster, Europe in recession. Deceleration in the emerging economies. The Fed signals a

More information

RIETI Special Seminar. The New Landscape of World Trade with Mega-FTAs and Japan's Strategy. Handout. URATA Shujiro

RIETI Special Seminar. The New Landscape of World Trade with Mega-FTAs and Japan's Strategy. Handout. URATA Shujiro RIETI Special Seminar The New Landscape of World Trade with Mega-FTAs and Japan's Strategy Handout URATA Shujiro Faculty Fellow, RIETI / Professor of Economics, Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies,

More information

How to Resolve Price Mismatch Problem?

How to Resolve Price Mismatch Problem? How to Resolve Price Mismatch Problem? Sergei Komlev Head of Contract Structuring and Price Formation Gazprom Export Third European Gas Price Structuring and Market Liquidity Forum, Berlin January 28,

More information

OUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc.

OUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc. OUTLOOK 2014/2015 BMO Asset Management Inc. We would like to take this opportunity to provide our capital markets outlook for the remainder of 2014 and the first half of 2015 and our recommended asset

More information

Vantage Investment Partners. Quarterly Market Review

Vantage Investment Partners. Quarterly Market Review Vantage Investment Partners Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2016 Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2016 This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the

More information

Investor update. 3 March Rawi Corsiri Somruedee Somphong

Investor update. 3 March Rawi Corsiri Somruedee Somphong Investor update 3 March 2003 Rawi Corsiri Somruedee Somphong COO CFO Agenda 1 Quarterly overview 2 Results highlight 3 Industry outlook 4 Business scenario 2 www.banpu.co.th Quarterly overview Corporate

More information

Asia Key Economic and Financial Indicators 13-Jul-17

Asia Key Economic and Financial Indicators 13-Jul-17 Asia Key Economic and Financial Indicators -Jul-7 ASEAN Brunei (BN) Cambodia (KH) Indonesia () Laos (LA) Malaysia () Myanmar (MM) Philippines () Singapore () Thailand () Vietnam () East Asia China (CN)

More information

Monetary Policy Report 2/12. Charts

Monetary Policy Report 2/12. Charts Monetary Policy Report / Charts Chart. Yields on -year government bonds. Percent. January June Greece (left-hand scale) Germany Spain Italy 8 7 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Source: Thomson Reuters Chart. Developments

More information

2014/2015 Survey of Results and Assumptions for Actuarial Valuations of Defined Benefit Schemes in accordance with

2014/2015 Survey of Results and Assumptions for Actuarial Valuations of Defined Benefit Schemes in accordance with 2014/2015 Survey of Results and Assumptions for Actuarial Valuations of Defined Benefit Schemes in accordance with Hong Kong Accounting Standard 19 Employee Benefits Survey of Results and Assumptions for

More information

Are good assets enough? Mike Oppenheimer President, BHP Billiton Energy Coal JB Were Conference August 2, 2002 Sydney

Are good assets enough? Mike Oppenheimer President, BHP Billiton Energy Coal JB Were Conference August 2, 2002 Sydney Are good assets enough? Mike Oppenheimer President, BHP Billiton Energy Coal JB Were Conference August 2, 2002 Sydney Response to Global Energy Coal Industry change? Market evolution Energy convergence

More information

Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia. Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February

Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia. Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February 2017 1 Global and Asia Outlook 2 Global activity strengthening, with rising dispersion and uncertainty

More information

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES. Bank of Russia.

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES. Bank of Russia. RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES Bank of Russia July 218 < -1% -1-9% -9-8% -8-7% -7-6% -6-5% -5-4% -4-3% -3-2% -2-1% -1 % 1% 1 2% 2 3% 3 4% 4 5% 5 6% 6 7% 7 8% 8 9% 9 1% 1 11% 11

More information

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges Daniel A. Citrin Asia and Pacific Department, IMF April 3, 28 Global Financial Stability Map: risks have risen; conditions have deteriorated October 27

More information

INTERNATIONAL TRADE. Xie, Yiqing

INTERNATIONAL TRADE. Xie, Yiqing INTERNATIONAL TRADE Xie, Yiqing LECTURE 7 IMPORT TARIFFS AND QUOTA UNDER PERFECT COMPETITION Introduction A Brief History of the World Trade Organization The Gains from Trade Import Tariffs for a Small

More information

The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects

The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects Dr. Jacob A. Frenkel Chairman & CEO Group of Thirty (G30).Bank Indonesia 7th Annual International Seminar Global Financial Tsunami: What Can We

More information

Latin America Equities

Latin America Equities Latin America Equities March 2013 Stephen Burrows, Senior Investment Manager Emerging Markets - Pictet Asset Management Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12

More information

IINO KAIUN KAISHA, LTD. (IINO LINES)

IINO KAIUN KAISHA, LTD. (IINO LINES) October 30, 2015 Consolidated Financial Results For the Six Months Ended September 30, 2015 - under Japanese GAAP IINO KAIUN KAISHA, LTD. (IINO LINES) Stock code: 9119 URL: http://www.iino.co.jp/kaiun/english/

More information

Committee on Industry, External Trade, Research and Energy

Committee on Industry, External Trade, Research and Energy Committee on Industry, External Trade, Research and Energy Public Hearing on Security of Energy Supply European Parliament 29 April 2003 By Jean-Marie Devos Secretary General, Eurogas Table of Content

More information

Real Effective Exchange Rate based on CPI as Price Index for India*

Real Effective Exchange Rate based on CPI as Price Index for India* Real Effective Exchange Rate based on CPI as Price Index for India ARTICLE Real Effective Exchange Rate based on CPI as Price Index for India* Effective exchange rates are summary indicators of movements

More information

As close as you need, as far as you go

As close as you need, as far as you go As close as you need, as far as you go BBVA, a global group For more than 150 years our clients have been the centre of our business. Now as a highly solvent international financial group we offer clients

More information

Abenomics: From Stimulus to Sustainable Growth. Jerry Schiff Deputy Director Asia and Pacific Department International Monetary Fund

Abenomics: From Stimulus to Sustainable Growth. Jerry Schiff Deputy Director Asia and Pacific Department International Monetary Fund Abenomics: From Stimulus to Sustainable Growth Jerry Schiff Deputy Director Asia and Pacific Department International Monetary Fund Abenomics: from where to where? What is the right benchmark? Recovery,

More information

New Global Coal Market and U.S. Role Coal Finance 2013 March 18 19, Tom Sanzillo Director of Finance

New Global Coal Market and U.S. Role Coal Finance 2013 March 18 19, Tom Sanzillo Director of Finance New Global Coal Market and U.S. Role Coal Finance 2013 March 18 19, 2013 Tom Sanzillo Director of Finance New Global Coal Market and U.S. Role U.S. Coal Production Global and Domestic Global Trade Going

More information

NASDAQ Global Index. More information about the Index can be found at

NASDAQ Global Index. More information about the Index can be found at NASDAQ Global Index The NASDAQ Global Index is a float adjusted market capitalization-weighted index designed to track the performance of global equities covering over 98% of the entire listed market capitalization

More information

% 38, % 40, % 2,611 2,

% 38, % 40, % 2,611 2, 3 DECEMBER 6 OPEN ENDED Number of Net Value of Number of Total Value Total Value Net New Date Authorised/Registered Schemes Registered of Sales of Repurchases Investment Schemes ( mn) Holders ( mn) ( mn)

More information

Global Economics & Market Volatility - Impact on Commodities. Nagaraj Meda MD, TransGraph Consulting

Global Economics & Market Volatility - Impact on Commodities. Nagaraj Meda MD, TransGraph Consulting Global Economics & Market Volatility - Impact on Commodities Nagaraj Meda MD, TransGraph Consulting Global economy summary Euro strength emanated from accelerated growth momentum and strong current account

More information

Public Islamic Asia Leaders Equity Fund (PIALEF)

Public Islamic Asia Leaders Equity Fund (PIALEF) Fund Information Fund Name (PIALEF) Fund Category Equity (Shariah-compliant) Fund Investment Objective To achieve capital growth over the medium to long term period by investing mainly in stocks of companies

More information

Global Risk Outlook May 2016

Global Risk Outlook May 2016 Global Risk Outlook May 2016 Scott Livermore Managing Director and COO slivermore@oxfordeconomics.com About Oxford Economics Oxford Economics is a world leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis.

More information

Key Priorities and Challenges for Canadian Oil

Key Priorities and Challenges for Canadian Oil Key Priorities and Challenges for Canadian Oil Canadian Heavy Oil Association April 15, 2013 Greg Stringham 1 Photo: Cenovus Enabling Responsible Development 2 Global Primary Energy Demand 20,000 18,000

More information