Asia/Pacific Morning Meeting Summary

Transcription

1 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Companies Featured KS, KS, 1177.HK, KS, 3368.HK, NTES.O Asia/Pacific Morning Meeting Summary Highlights The Morning Call Netease.com (China) / 1Q11: Robust Pipeline Buoying Solid Performance Overweight Hong Kong Investor Summit 2011 / Day 4: Getting used to it doesn t mean we like it India Strategy / AlphaWise Evidence Series: Indian Households Tell Us How to Play Rising Inflation Company/Industry Analysis Parkson Retail Group Limited (China) / No Buying Opportunity Yet, 1Q11 Results In-Line Sino Biopharmaceutical (China) / Solid 1Q Top-line Heralding a Strong 2011, Reiterate OW Hanjin Shipping (S. Korea) / Sell-off Opens an Attractive Entry points LIG Insurance (S. Korea) / Strong Earnings Recovery with Profitable Growth Plan NHN Corp (S. Korea) / Quick Comment: In-line 1Q11 Results Equal-weight Overweight Overweight Overweight Equal-weight Strategy/Economics Analysis S. Korea Discovery / SNU Precision ( KQ): Pioneering Thin Film OLED Encapsulation What's Changed Estimates/Price Target Changes - Up Stock Rating Price Target ModelWare Estimate Ticker Company From To From To From To (FY) Consensus* KS LIG Insurance -- O -- W31,000 W3,796 W3,990(3/'12) W3,344 W4,529 W4,931(3/'13) W4,419 W4,409 W4,527(3/'14) -- Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. += Analysts employed by non-u.s. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

2 Estimates/Price Target Changes - Down NTES.O Netease.com -- O -- NA Rmb21.37 Rmb 21.25(12/'11) -- Rmb24.65 Rmb23.48(12/'12) -- Rmb26.99 Rmb25.83(12/'13) -- * First Call consensus estimate. For valuation methodology and risks associated with any price targets above, please morganstanley.research@morganstanley.com with a request for valuation methodology and risks on a particular stock. The Morning Call NTES.O, Netease.com (US$45.94) /1Q11: Robust Pipeline Buoying Solid Performance Richard.Ji@morganstanley.com, Timothy.Yh.Chan, Philip.Wan, Jenny.Wu, Gillian.Chung Earnings topped: Sales of Rmb1.5bn dropped 8% QoQ but grew 29% YoY. Diluted EPADS was US$0.86, up 4% QoQ and 69% YoY, vs. our forecast of US$0.82, helped by a lower effective tax rate and forex gains. Our base case value of US$56.30 implies ~23% upside. We maintain Overweight our rating. Rating: Overweight China Internet: Attractive 52-Week Range: US$ Mkt. Cap(mn): US$6,016 ModelWare EPS: Rmb21.25 (FY 12/'11), Rmb23.48 (FY 12/'12) What we liked: 1) Online game sales expanded 28% YoY to 91% of total sales, aided by the robust performance of World of Warcraft, Heroes of Tang Dynasty, Fantasy Westward Journey, Tianxia IIand Westward Journey Online II. 2) Commercialization of Starcraft II started in April, earlier than our expectations. 3) Net cash of US$1.6bn (US$12/sh) exceeds a quarter of NetEase s market value, making it the second most cash-rich Chinese Internet listco. What concerned us: 1) Online advertising sales dropped 46% QoQ (up 39% YoY), largely due to weaker 1Q seasonality and the high base related to the Asian Games last quarter. 2) Operating margin shrank 1.5ppts YoY to 46%, mainly due to the increased game promotion expenses and R&D costs. Hong Kong Investor Summit 2011/Day 4: Getting used to it doesn t mean we like it Erteam@morganstanley.com Summary: As has always been the case, the focus on some of the Hong Kong establishment stocks such as Li & Fung and Tingyi Noodles remains high. However at last year s Summit the property counters attracted the highest investor traffic, hoping to see signs of recovery, while this year it has been the gaming stocks such as Wynn and SJM (a Morgan Stanley Best Idea since June 2010) attracting greater investor attention, this time climbing that wall of worry. Inflation the pervasive theme throughout Day 4.This was perhaps best highlighted by comments from Esprit warning of double-digit cost inflation in the second half of the year, and supported by similar comments other companies that cautioned about rising input costs. For the most part, management teams appear well prepared to deal with the implications of inflation.. Strategy/AlphaWise Evidence Series: Indian Households Tell Us How to Play Rising Inflation Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited Sheela.Rathi@morganstanley.com, Ridham.Desai Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. Chetan.Ahya@morganstanley.com How are consumers likely to respond to rising inflation? According to our Key AlphaWise Evidence, we note the following: 1. Households are likely to cut savings to manage rising 2

3 inflation; 2. Households are likely to respond with a down-trading in food items and other staples over the next 12 months; 3. Households are unlikely to reduce spending on medical, education, lifestyle, and transportation (MELT); 4. Mom & pop stores remain a key source for shopping. The modern retail revolution has a long way to go; and 5. Consumption habits appear alike for urban and rural India. Five investment themes: 1. Companies with pricing power to benefit; 2. Staple companies could face down-trading in the coming 12 months; 3. Companies in hospital, fashion, travel and entertainment businesses could benefit from household s focus on MELT; 4. Retail companies a must for long-term portfolios; and 5. Rural India is emerging as a key focus area for consumer companies. Our key ideas: Adani Enterprises (ADEL.BO, Rs625), Bharti Airtel (BRTI.BO, Rs365), Fortis (FOHE.BO, Rs158), IRB (IRBI.BO, Rs159), M&M (MAHM.BO, Rs676), Pantaloon (PART.BO, Rs257), Titan (TITN.BO, Rs4,120), and Zee (ZEE.BO, Rs131), all rated Overweight.. Company/Industry Analysis CHINA 3368.HK, Parkson Retail Group Limited (HK$12.12) /No Buying Opportunity Yet, 1Q11 Results In-Line Rob.Lin@morganstanley.com, Angela.Moh Maintain Equal-weight. Parkson reported 1Q net profit of Rmb350mn, up 29.6% YoY, due primarily to one-time option expense of Rmb35mn recorded in 1Q10. Excluding this one-time expense, operating profit and net profit grew 7.9% and 18.1%, YoY, respectively. Results were largely in line with expectations, with a pick up in top-line growth given recovering SSSG and new store additions in 2H10. This was offset by increased expenses, which are expected to trend higher over the next several quarters as Parkson accelerates its store openings in 2H11. Rating: Equal-weight China Department Stores: Attractive Target: HK$ Week Range: HK$ Mkt. Cap(mn): HK$34,036 ModelWare EPS: HK$0.45 (FY 12/'11), HK$0.57 (FY 12/'12) Better long-term growth prospect; Remain cautious on short-term profit growth. Parkson intends to rejuvenate growth through opening of 7-8 stores per year for , which translates to 18~22% adjusted floor space growth for the period. While we expect these stores to be earnings dilutive in the initial years, contributing ~Rmb mn in losses per year on a combined basis, this is a necessary strategic step and we are more positive of its long-term growth prospect. Nevertheless, lack of profit growth catalysts in the near-term keeps us side-lined as acceleration of new stores could translate to increased execution risks. 1Q details: Gross sales grew 19.6% to Rmb4.43bn (or 26% of our full year estimates), tracking in line to our full year estimates. The pick up in sales was driven by recovering SSSG of 13.9% and new stores. With more stores due to open in 2011.Gross profit margin declined by 86bp to 17.95%, due largely to new stores dilution, greater sales of lower margin category of gold and jewelry and weaker margin of its key flagship stores including Beijing, Wuxi and Anshan HK, Sino Biopharmaceutical (HK$2.76) / Solid 1Q Top-line Heralding a Strong 2011, Reiterate OW Sean.Wu@morganstanley.com, Bin.Li, C.Lui, Yolanda.Hu Reiterate Overweight on solid 1Q. 1Q11 results showed unexpected robust top-line growth of 36% YoY vs. our 24% forecast. We are especially encouraged by the strong rebound of the hepatitis franchise (+44% YoY growth vs. +11% for 1Q10 and +15% for 2010). Management guidance of total company sales growth of 30%+ and net profit growth of 18-20% is reassuring Rating: Overweight China Pharmaceuticals: Attractive Target: HK$ Week Range: HK$ Mkt. Cap(mn): HK$13,396 ModelWare EPS: HK$0.12 (FY 12/'11), HK$0.14 (FY 12/'12) 3

4 and attainable, in our opinion. 1Q sales overview: The strong rebound in hepatitis sales was anchored by Tianqingganmei (HK$153mn, +94% YoY) and Runzhong (HK$85mn). Hence, we are comfortable that sales of the two products should reach HK$600mn and HK$300mn for 2011, respectively. Mingzheng sales saw +8.4% YoY growth, vs expectations of no growth. Kaishi grew a solid 30% in 1Q, albeit below management expectation of 40% due to price cut. Kaifen grew 41% YoY. Operational update: SBP received manufacturing approval for three products in 1Q and for Pronase of Beijing Tide in April. After receiving go-ahead to bring 5 more products into clinical trials, it currently has 53 products under clinical development, which we believe is one of best pipelines in the industry. SBP entered into contracts to acquire a 52% interest in an orthopedic specialty hospital for ~7x trailing P/ E and 1.1x P/B. S. KOREA KS, Hanjin Shipping (W26,250) /Sell-off Opens an Attractive Entry points Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, Seoul Branch HyunTaek.Lee@morganstanley.com, Shawn.Kim Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte. Sophie.Loh@morganstanley.com Rating: Overweight S. Korea Shipping: Attractive Target: W40, Week Range: W41,900-25,550 Mkt. Cap(bn): W2,231 ModelWare EPS: W1,796 (FY 12/'11), W4,881 (FY 12/'12) Stock down sharply on recent news flow. Hanjin s stock price is down 13% in the past six trading sessions (vs. -1% for KOSPI) due to 1) lackluster recovery in freight rates, 2) weak 1Q earnings with consensus downward revision, 3) negative news from the European Commission that, on May 18, began an investigation into possible price fixing among container shipping companies. Reasons we believe it is time to accumulate: 1. Capacity growth has peaked out and rising demand on seasonality imply current freight rates are the bottom; 2.Consensus downward revisions seem overdone 2011 EPS estimates have come down 50% in the past four weeks; 3. We do not expect the EC investigation to result in significant fines; 4. Huge underperformance to its regional peers make its 2011E 0.85x P/B the cheapest in the region Additional positives: 1. Bunker fuel (20% of COGS); After peaking at $667/bbl in April, bunker fuel was down by 8% to $615/bbl on May 18; and 2. Charter rates for 4000TEU ships were down 9% MoM with overall rates down 2% MoM. It is unusual to see a decline in charter rates before peak season. Liners seem to start managing supply to prevent further losses KS, LIG Insurance (W22,150) /Strong Earnings Recovery with Profitable Growth Plan Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, Seoul Branch Sara.HS.Lee@morganstanley.com, Dana.Kang Reiterate Overweight. At 6x F2012 P/E, we believe LIG is undervalued, despite our expectations of a strong earnings recovery on the back of profitability focused growth strategy. The share price has corrected recently, due mainly to concerns on low healthcare insurance market growth outlook, deteriorating auto loss ratio in April, a flattening yield curve, and concerns on potential PF loan quality deterioration. Rating: Overweight S. Korea Insurance: Attractive Target: W31, Week Range: W28,650-19,400 Mkt. Cap(bn): W1,329 ModelWare EPS: W3,990 (FY 3/'12), W4,931 (FY 3/'13) We believe the recent correction mostly reflects these concerns. The company plans the strong growth with profitable protection-type products for an improving new business value and profits outlook. The cycle of auto insurance recovery remains intact. Strong earnings recovery outlook in F2012: LIG is guiding for net profit of W197bn net profit (171%), given low base in F2011 and on the back of a strong auto loss ratio recovery with 4

5 improved expense control. It assumes 75.5% auto loss ratio (6.2ppt improvement), which is in line with our expectation. But the company is more conservative on investment return outlook on the back of flattening yield curve trend and low return of equity investment expectation. LIG guided the accounting standard change to IFRS may lower earnings by W15bn in F KS, NHN Corp (W192,500) /Quick Comment: In-line 1Q11 Results Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, Seoul Branch Jessica.Bang Moderately better-than-expected 1Q11 results. Total revenue grew 14% YoY to W517bn. Operating profit grew 14% to W168bn. NP grew 13% YoY to W127bn. Search ads grew 24% YoY to W250bn, which was in line with annual growth guidance of 20-25% this year. Most of this growth was driven by rising price per click (PPC) in 1Q11, up 9% QoQ and 22% YoY. Due to exact matching, however, the number of clicks declined during the quarter. Rating: Equal-weight S. Korea Internet Services: In-Line Target: W212, Week Range: W229, ,500 Mkt. Cap(bn): W9,265 ModelWare EPS: W11,344 (FY 12/'11), W12,370 (FY 12/'12) Game revenue grew 1% YoY to W168bn. Revenue from NHN's Hangame was W117bn, with W46bn from NHN Japan. NHN now expects game revenue to grow 10-15%, down from 15-20% previously. NHN also wants to get to 50:50 webboard to publishing sales mix by year-end. Remain Equal-weight. We believe NHN's 1Q11 results have set the tone for this year. Our numbers remain unchanged, and we do not expect much change to consensus for this year. However, we believe the key debate is emerging as to whether NHN can sustain its search ads growth next year (or even possibly 4Q11). In our view, PPC cannot continue to rise, nor can the number of advertisers. Query growth has been tepid. Moreover, next year, the Overture commission portion will no longer exist. Strategy/Economics Analysis S. Korea Discovery/SNU Precision ( KQ): Pioneering Thin Film OLED Encapsulation Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, Seoul Branch Young.Shin, Mike.Chung Equipment maker looking to benefit from the proliferating OLED industry: SNU Precision is one of the leading OLED equipment makers in Korea with a track record of supplying 2G evaporation equipment since The company expanded into the OLED business in 2009 with the acquisition of ANS Inc., a Korean company specializing in OLED deposition equipment. SNU looks to benefit from the rapid growing OLED industry as it expects to see increasing orders from Samsung Mobile Display (SMD) and other OLED makers. Core OLED Equipment: SNU believes it can leverage the knowledge and technology learned from successfully developing and supplying 2G equipments to its advantage in the R&D race for full-size 5.5G core tools. With successful results, the company expects to penetrate SMD by 2H12. SNU s encapsulation equipment technology differs from other makers as it uses thin film instead of the traditional glass sealants. Core OLED Equipment: SNU s most important customer is SMD, which accounts for about 95% of global OLED production. However, SNU has been looking to expand its customer base and has found this opportunity abroad. It expects to see a meaningful order pick-up for its 2G evaporation tools as Chinese and Taiwanese panel makers start to move into the OLED industry. 5

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