Macroeconomic Diagnostics (MDSx) Module
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1 Macroeconomic Diagnostics (MDSx) Module 7 Fiscal Policy This training material is the property of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and is intended for use in IMF Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) courses. Any reuse requires the permission of the IMF and ICD.
2 Required to effectively communicate video segments. Course: Module: Section: MDSx 7 1 Video #: Video Title: Video Type: 1 About Module 7 Standard
3 Required to effectively communicate video segments. Course: Module: Section: MDSx 7 2 Video #: Video Title: Video Type: 1 An Overview of Fiscal Policy Standard
4 Fiscal Policy and the Economy Demand conditions affect fiscal position Fiscal Policy Economy
5 Fiscal Policy and the Economy Fiscal Policy affects demand in short-term Fiscal Policy Economy Objective (short-term): Counter-cyclical Fiscal Policy
6 Fiscal Policy and the Economy Fiscal Policy affects macro stability in medium-term Fiscal Policy Economy Objective (medium-term): Sustainable public debt level
7 Fiscal Policy and the Economy Fiscal Policy affects supply Fiscal Policy Economy
8 Required to effectively communicate video segments. Course: Module: Section: MDSx 7 2 Video #: Video Title: Video Type: 2 Outline of What Comes Next Standard
9 Topics Covered Headline Fiscal Indicators Cyclically-adjusted Fiscal Balance Fiscal Stance and Fiscal Impulse Fiscal Multiplier
10 Required to effectively communicate video segments. Course: Module: Section: MDSx 7 3 Video #: Video Title: Video Type: 1 Headline Fiscal Indicators Standard
11 Headline Fiscal Indicators Stylized Fiscal Account Revenue (T): Tax revenue Non-tax revenue Expenditure (E): Current expenditure (including interest) Capital spending Policy loans T E = Overall Balance (OB)
12 Headline Fiscal Indicators Stylized Fiscal Account Revenue (T): Tax revenue Non-tax revenue Expenditure (E): Current expenditure (including interest) Capital spending Policy loans T (E interest spending) = Primary Balance (PB)
13 Required to effectively communicate video segments. Course: Module: Section: MDSx 7 3 Video #: Video Title: Video Type: 2 Headline Fiscal Indicators in Excel Excel
14 Placeholder to insert EXCEL full canvas diagram or chart. (Draft in PowerPoint and within the guides.)
15 Required to effectively communicate video segments. Course: Module: Section: MDSx 7 3 Video #: Video Title: Video Type: 3 Headline Fiscal Indicators Limitations Standard
16 Factors Affecting Fiscal Balances Discretionary Policy Measures Tax measures Expenditure measures Cyclical Factors Automatic stabilizers Factors beyond the Business Cycle Commodity price effects Other asset price effects
17 Interpreting Headline Fiscal Indicators Potentially misleading signals: Deficit fiscal expansion Surplus fiscal tightening Focus is to assess the discretionary fiscal policy
18 Discretionary Fiscal Policy Changes 3.00 Primary Balance vs. Output Gap, Country Z, Output gap Primary balance
19 Required to effectively communicate video segments. Course: Module: Section: MDSx 7 4 Video #: Video Title: Video Type: 1 Cyclically Adjusted Fiscal Balance Standard
20 Cyclically-Adjusted and Structural Balances Cyclicallyadjusted Overall Balance (CAOB) = Overall Balance net of cyclical factors Reflects changes in discretionary policy measures Main adjustment to be done in most countries Cyclically-adjusted Primary Balance (CAPB) = Primary Balance net of cyclical factors
21 Cyclically-Adjusted and Structural Balances Structural Balance (SB) Overall Balance net of cyclical factors = and Factors beyond the business cycle Definition varies from country to country and depends on what is important/relevant.
22 Required to effectively communicate video segments. Course: Module: Section: MDSx 7 4 Video #: Video Title: Video Type: 2 Cyclically Adjusted Fiscal Balance Continued Standard
23 Fiscal Policy Analysis Using CAOB Two application areas: Assessing current fiscal policy stance Assessing fiscal sustainability
24 Assessing Current Fiscal Policy Stance Changes in CAOB: Fiscal policy more expansionary or tightening? Pro-cyclical or counter-cyclical? Automatic stabilizers are counter-cyclical but not enough Discretionary policy may be pro-cyclical
25 Fiscal Policy is Not Always Counter-Cyclical 3.00 Primary Balance vs. Output Gap, Country Z, Output gap Primary balance
26 Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Some points: CAPB enough to keep debt at sustainable level? Comparison of the CAPB against a certain benchmark Short-term and Medium-term goals are interrelated
27 Required to effectively communicate video segments. Course: Module: Section: MDSx 7 4 Video #: Video Title: Video Type: 3 Computing Cyclically Adjusted Fiscal Balance Standard
28 Removing the Impact of the Business Cycle Overall Balance (OB) = Cyclical + Factors Cyclicallyadjusted Overall Balance (CAOB)
29 Cyclical Adjustment The Aggregated Approach: Cyclicallyadjusted Overall Balance (CAOB) = Cyclicallyadjusted revenue (T CA ) - Cyclicallyadjusted expenditure (G CA ) T CA Y = T Y P ε T, Y T: Actual revenue Y: Output ; Y P : Potential Output ɛ T,Y : Revenue elasticity, - If >0, T is procyclical G CA Y = G Y P ε G, Y G: Actual expenditure ɛ G,Y : Expenditure elasticity - If <0, G is counter-cyclical
30 Required to effectively communicate video segments. Course: Module: Section: MDSx 7 4 Video #: Video Title: Video Type: 5 Computing Cyclically Adjusted Fiscal Balance Continued Standard
31 The Aggregated Approach Elasticities: Are generally acquired from Econometric estimation More detailed breakdown of revenues and expenditures (disaggregated approach) IF data/time scarce, THEN use judgment/approximate values.
32 The Aggregated Approach Elasticities: Usual assumption: ε T,Y =1 (or a bit higher) Cyclically-adjusted revenue is lower in booms, and higher in recessions. Proportional taxes Progressive taxes Social security contributions
33 The Aggregated Approach Elasticities: Usual assumption: ε G,Y =0 (or small negative) Expenditure does not depend on output Except unemployment benefits
34 Interpreting the Cyclically-Adjusted Balance Boom: YY > YY PP TT > TT CCCC, GG GG CCCC => The actual balance > CAOB Recession: YY < YY PP TT < TT CCCC, GG GG CCCC => The actual balance < CAOB
35 Required to effectively communicate video segments. Course: Module: Section: MDSx 7 4 Video #: Video Title: Video Type: 5 Cyclically Adjusted Fiscal Balance in Excel Excel
36 Placeholder to insert EXCEL full canvas diagram or chart. (Draft in PowerPoint and within the guides.)
37 Required to effectively communicate video segments. Course: Module: Section: MDSx 7 4 Video #: Video Title: Video Type: 6 Adjusting the Fiscal Balance: Extensions Standard
38 Adjusting the Fiscal Balance Extensions Disaggregated approach to cyclical adjustment: Adjust each revenue/expenditure category separately Factors beyond the business cycle: Commodity prices effects Other asset prices effects Output composition
39 Required to effectively communicate video segments. Course: Module: Section: MDSx 7 5 Video #: Video Title: Video Type: 1 Fiscal Stance and Fiscal Impulse Standard
40 Fiscal Stance Defined as: FS t = CAOB t CAOB t < 0 CAOB t = 0 CAOB t > 0 Expansionary (FS t > 0) Neutral (FS t = 0) Contractionary (FS t < 0)
41 Fiscal Impulse Measures the change in Fiscal Stance: FI = FS FS t t 1 FI < 0 Fiscal Policy is either less expansionary or more contractionary FI > 0 Fiscal Policy is either more expansionary or less contractionary
42 Required to effectively communicate video segments. Course: Module: Section: MDSx 7 5 Video #: Video Title: Video Type: 2 Interpreting Fiscal Stance and Fiscal Impulse Standard
43 Fiscal Stance and Impulse in Hungary Fiscal policy more expansionary in More contractionary in , Fiscal impulse Net lending/ borrowing Structural balance Data: IMF WEO
44 Required to effectively communicate video segments. Course: Module: Section: MDSx 7 5 Video #: Video Title: Video Type: 3 Fiscal Stance and Fiscal Impulse in Excel Excel
45 Placeholder to insert EXCEL full canvas diagram or chart. (Draft in PowerPoint and within the guides.)
46 Required to effectively communicate video segments. Course: Module: Section: MDSx 7 6 Video #: Video Title: Video Type: 1 Fiscal Multipliers Standard
47 Fiscal Multiplier Defined by: How much output changes (ΔY) following a discretionary change in government spending (ΔG) or revenue (- ΔT). Impact multiplier = ΔY t ΔG t
48 Fiscal Multiplier General Features: Change is unnecessary one-to-one Private and Government saving may offset each other In reality can be much larger than 1; or negative Highly dependent on circumstances
49 Required to effectively communicate video segments. Course: Module: Section: MDSx 7 6 Video #: Video Title: Video Type: 2 Fiscal Multipliers in Practice Standard
50 Size of Multiplier Recent Empirical Estimates: Overall Range in normal times ~0-40% less during booms ~0-60% more during recessions FM closer to the lower boundary if: Public debt is high Capacity to administer government finance is low Economy is open Exchange rate is flexible Labor market is flexible Source: Weber A., L. Eyraud, and N. Batini, 2014, A Simple Method to Compute Fiscal Multipliers, IMF Working Paper 14/93
51 Required to effectively communicate video segments. Course: Module: Section: MDSx 7 7 Video #: Video Title: Video Type: 1 Summarizing What We Have Learned Standard
52 Summarizing the Module Headline Fiscal Indicators can be misleading Need to adjust Fiscal Balances for the effects of the business cycle and other factors Fiscal Impulse explains contraction or expansion of Fiscal Policy Fiscal Multiplier measures the short-term impact of discretionary Fiscal Policy on output
53 Required to effectively communicate video segments. Course: Module: Section: MDSx 7 8 Video #: Video Title: Video Type: 1 Assessing Diagnostica Standard
54 Placeholder to insert EXCEL full canvas diagram or chart. (Draft in PowerPoint and within the guides.)
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