2018 Midterm Forecast Roundup: Week of Aug. 6

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1 Aug. 7, Midterm Forecast Roundup: Week of Aug. 6 With less than 100 days until the midterm election, most forecasters are now formally predicting a Democratic majority in the House. Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report says Democrats are substantial favorites for House control. According to Larry Sabato of Sabato s Crystal Ball, the battle for House control tilts toward the Democrats because the party has succesfully recruited well-funded and credible challengers in key districts. Sources: The Cook Political Report; Larry J. Sabato s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics; Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales; FiveThirtyEight, Are Democrats or Republicans winning the race for Congress?

2 Generic congressional ballot polling 30-DAY MOVING AVERAGE 45% 40% 35% Aug. 6 42% 36% Democrats are leading by 6 points. 30% Nov. Jan. March May July

3 AR-02 French Hill (R) Lean R Lean R Likely R AZ-01 Tom O'Halleran (D) Likely D Likely D Tilt D AZ-02 OPEN Lean D Lean D Tilt D CA-10 Jeff Denham (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R CA-21 David Valadao (R) Likely R Likely R Likely R CA-25 Steve Knight (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R CA-39 OPEN Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up CA-45 Mimi Walters (R) Lean R Toss-up Lean R CA-48 Dana Rohrabacher (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R CA-49 OPEN Lean D Lean D Toss-up CO-06 Mike Coffman (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R FL-15 OPEN Lean R Likely R Safe R FL-16 Vern Buchanan (R) Lean R Lean R Safe R FL-18 Brian Mast (R) Lean R Likely R Safe R

4 FL-26 Carlos Curbelo (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R FL-27 OPEN Lean D Lean D Lean D GA-06 Karen Handel (R) Lean R Lean R Likely R IA-01 Rod Blum (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tossup IA-03 David Young (R) Toss-up Toss-up Likely R IL-06 Peter Roskam (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R IL-12 Mike Bost (R) Toss-up Toss-up Lean R IL-13 Rodney Davis (R) Lean R Likely R Likely R IL-14 Randy Hultgren (R) Lean R Likely R Safe R KS-02 OPEN Lean R Toss-up Lean R KS-03 Kevin Yoder (R) Lean R Lean R Lean R KY-06 Andy Barr (R) Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up ME-02 Bruce Poliquin (R) Toss-up Lean R Lean R

5 MI-08 Mike Bishop (R) Toss-up Toss-up Lean R MI-11 OPEN Toss-up Toss-up Tossup MN-01 OPEN Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up MN-02 Jason Lewis (R) Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up MN-03 Erik Paulsen (R) Toss-up Toss-up Lean R MN-07 Collin Peterson (D) Likely D Likely D Lean D MN-08 OPEN Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up MT-AL Greg Gianforte (R) Lean R Lean R Likely R NC-09 OPEN Lean R Toss-up Tilt R NC-13 Ted Budd (R) Lean R Lean R Likely R NE-02 Don Bacon (R) Lean R Lean R Tilt R NH-01 OPEN Lean D Lean D Tilt D

6 NJ-02 OPEN Likely D Likely D Likely D NJ-03 Tom MacArthur (R) Lean R Lean R Lean R NJ-07 Leonard Lance (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R NJ-11 OPEN Lean D Toss-up Tilt D NM-02 OPEN Lean R Lean R Lean R NV-03 OPEN Lean D Lean D Tilt D NY-11 Dan Donovan (R) Likely R Lean R Likely R NY-19 John J. Faso (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R NY-22 Claudia Tenney (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R OH-01 Steve Chabot (R) Lean R Toss-up Likely R OH-12 VACANT Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R PA-01 Brian Fitzpatrick (R) Lean R Toss-up Tilt R PA-07 VACANT Lean D Toss-up Tilt D

7 PA-16 Mike Kelly (R) Lean R Likely R Safe R PA-17 Keith Rothfus (R) Lean D Toss-up Toss-up TX-07 John Culberson (R) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R TX-23 Will Hurd (R) Lean R Toss-up Toss-up TX-32 Pete Sessions (R) Toss-up Lean R Toss-up UT-04 Mia Love (R) Lean R Lean R Lean R VA-02 Scott Taylor (R) Lean R Toss-up Likely R VA-05 OPEN Lean R Lean R Likely R VA-07 Dave Brat (R) Toss-up Toss-up Lean R VA-10 Barbara Comstock (R) Lean D Lean D Toss-up WA-05 Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) Lean R Lean R Likely R WA-08 OPEN Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up WI-01 OPEN Lean R Toss-up Lean R WV-03 OPEN Lean R Toss-up Likely R

8 Predictions for competitive Senate races by top forecasters STATE INCUMBENT Cook Sabato Gonzales CHANGES Ariz. OPEN Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up Fla. Bill Nelson (D) Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up Ind. Joe Donnelly (D) Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up Mich. Debbie Stabenow (D) Likely D Likely D Safe D Miss. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) Likely R Likely R Safe R Minn. Tina Smith (D) Likely D Likely D Likely D Mo. Claire McCaskill (D) Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up Mont. Jon Tester (D) Likely D Lean D Tilt D Neb. Deb Fischer (R) Likely R Safe R Safe R

9 Predictions for competitive Senate races by top forecasters STATE INCUMBENT Cook Sabato Gonzales CHANGES N.D. Heidi Heitkamp (D) Toss-up Toss-up Tilt R N.J. Bob Menendez (D) Likely D Likely D Safe D Nev. Dean Heller (R) Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up Ohio Sherrod Brown (D) Lean D Likely D Likely D Pa. Bob Casey (D) Likely D Safe D Likely D Tenn. OPEN Toss-up Lean R Lean R Texas Ted Cruz (R) Lean R Likely R Likely R Wis. Tammy Baldwin (D) Likely D Likely D Lean D W.Va. Joe Manchin (D) Toss-up Lean D Tilt D