Unit 5: Examples of Independent Budgetary Units

Transcription

1 Unit 5: Examples of Independent Budgetary Units Learning Objectives Examples of PBOs and Fiscal Councils After studying this unit, you should be able to: Provide examples of specialized legislative budget offices and fiscal councils. Understand the similarities and differences between their roles and functions. Introduction & Overview This unit provides factual examples of specialized legislative budget offices and fiscal councils. It demonstrates the diversity of existing budgetary units in terms of size and remit. A. Parliamentary Budgetary Offices i. Legislative Analyst s Office: California ( The LAO was established in 1941 to redress the balance of power that had been shifting to the executive. The office s website states that it serves as "eyes and ears" for the legislature to ensure that the executive branch is implementing legislative policy in a cost efficient and effective manner. The office carries out this legislative oversight function by reviewing and analysing the operations and finances of state government. It also makes recommendations to the legislature as to how the state can operate more effectively and efficiently and issues a biennial report which summarizes various changes to law that it has recommended.

2 The LAO was first established as a resource to all legislators through a joint rule of the Senate and the Assembly. It was later established by statute. Services provided by the LAO are available to all committees and members of the legislature, but it is overseen by the Joint Legislative Budget Committee (JLBC), a 16-member bipartisan committee (traditionally chaired by a senator with a member of the assembly as vice-chair). Both Houses fund the LAO on an equal basis. The office currently has a staff of 43 analysts, divided into ten subject areas, and approximately 13 support staff. One of the most important responsibilities of the LAO has been to produce an Analysis of the Budget Bill. This is a detailed review of the annual Governor's budget and it includes individual department reviews and recommendations for legislative action. A companion document, the Perspectives and Issues, provides an overview of the state's fiscal picture and identifies some of the major policy issues confronting the legislature. These documents help set the agenda for the work of the legislature's fiscal committees in developing a state budget. Staff of the office work with these committees throughout the budget process and provide public testimony on the office's recommendations. The LAO also performs the following functions: Budget "Control." The LAO reviews requests by the administration to make changes to the budget after it is enacted. These reviews are used primarily by members of the JLBC and the fiscal committees. Special Reports. Throughout the year, the office prepares special reports on the state budget and topics of interest to the legislature. Initiatives and Ballot Measures. The office estimates the fiscal effect on state and local government of all proposed initiatives (prior to circulation) and prepares analyses of all measures that qualify for the statewide ballot. Forecasting. The LAO forecasts the state revenues and expenditures. ii. Congressional Budget Office (CBO): United States

3 Perhaps the most well-known PBO, the CBO was established on a statutory basis in 1974 to provide committees with independent budgetary and economic information. The 1974 Act also created new House and Senate budget committees to oversee a new budget process. CBO's mandate is to provide the Congress with: Objective, nonpartisan, and timely analyses to aid in economic and budgetary decisions on the wide array of programs covered by the federal budget; and The information and estimates required for the Congressional budget process. The CBO assists the House and Senate Budget Committees, and the Congress more generally, by preparing reports and analyses. These reports contain no policy recommendations. One major annual report is a report on the economic and budget outlook for the United States, estimating spending and revenue over the next 10 years under current law. This so-called budget baseline serves as a neutral benchmark against which Members of Congress can measure the budgetary effect of proposed legislation. Each summer, CBO updates its baseline projections, incorporating a new economic forecast and the effects of laws that have been enacted to date in that session of Congress. The CBO also provides an independent re-estimate of the President s budget proposals, normally released within a month of the release of the president s budget proposal. This allows the Congress to compare the President's spending or revenue proposals to other proposals using a consistent set of economic and technical assumptions. To assist the Budget Committees and the Congress with enforcement of the budget resolution, CBO analyses the spending or revenue effects of specific legislative proposals and estimates the costs of pending legislation. Since 1995, it has also been responsible for identifying the costs associated to legislation containing federal mandates on state, local, and tribal governments, as well as on the private sector.

4 The CBO produces a volume that discusses a wide range of options that address changes in spending and taxes. The options are derived from many sources and, in keeping with CBO's mandate to provide objective analysis, each includes a discussion for or against it. A long-term budget outlook report is also presented illustrating scenarios for federal spending and revenues and describes the implications of those scenarios for the economy. Since 1996, CBO has regularly prepared reports on the long-term budgetary pressures associated with the aging of the baby-boom generation. Finally, the CBO analyses specific policy and program issues related to the budget. Such studies explore significant budgetary and economic issues in greater depth. The executive is statutory required to provide the CBO with the information it needs to perform its duties and functions. The agency was provided with $45.2 million in FY 2010 funding. In fiscal year 2009, CBO issued 33 studies and reports, 9 briefs, 11 Monthly Budget Reviews, 38 letters, 8 presentations, and 5 background papers along with 2 other publications and numerous supplemental data. CBO also testified before the Congress 17 times on a variety of issues. In calendar year 2009, CBO completed approximately 480 federal cost estimates as well as about 420 estimates of the impact of legislation on state and local governments, including the identification of any unfunded mandates contained in such legislation, and about 420 estimates of the impact of any unfunded mandates on the private sector. CBO currently employs about 250 people. The agency is composed primarily of economists and public policy analysts. About three-quarters of its professional staff hold advanced degrees, mostly in economics or public policy. iii. Legislative Budget Office: Uganda (Johnson & Stapenhurst, 2008; Kiraso, 2008) Following the Budget Act in 2001 and the subsequent establishment of the PBO, the Parliament of Uganda has been able to engage more fully in the budget process. Section 20 of the Budget Act provides that there shall be a Parliamentary Budget Office within the Parliamentary Service consisting of full time and part time budget and economic experts as may be required from time to time. The PBO is required to provide objective and timely analysis to Parliament s Budget Committee and Parliament more widely with the objective of improving the quality of parliamentary engagement with the budget process and financial management. The creation of

5 a PBO together with a centralized budget committee and changes to the role of Parliament in the budget process (for example giving the legislature an opportunity to review, comment on, and propose amendments to draft executive budget) echoes the reforms carried out in the United States in The PBO issues the following reports: Local revenue analysis. Monthly performance reports are submitted to the Budget Committee and the Budget Office by the Uganda Revenue Authority and the Budget Office reports to the Budget Committee. The reports identify whether the revenue collections are on target, if the targets were correct or could have been better made, and possible reasons for shortfalls. Foreign inflows analysis (including state indebtedness). The PBO monitors and reports on any departure from disbursements from both multilateral and bilateral donors. Interestingly, Parliament is able to question or even request government to renegotiate loan provisions that are found to be unfavourable. Expenditure reports. Each financial year ministers submit a policy statement to Parliament explaining the funds appropriated for that ministry and describing how much was actually released and what the funds were used for. The PBO reconciles the shortfalls (or the supplementary funds in some ministries) with the total budget performance and brings to the notice of the Budget Committee any discrepancies. Quarterly budget performance reports based on information collected from the treasury, as well as from all the sectors. Yearly economic indicator report A report recording all of parliament s recommendations to the government, whether government was expected to respond, whether or not it complied, and reasons for noncompliance. This has improved the overall quality of parliament s oversight role and enhanced the accountability of the government to the parliament. The Chairpersons of all other parliamentary committees act as ex officio members of the Budget Committee. The committee s remit includes focusing on the preliminary estimates and the macroeconomic plan and programs (submitting recommendations to the Speaker) and

6 considering the National Budget, compiling amendments and referring them to the relevant Committees. Every bill introduced into Parliament must be accompanied by an explanation of its financial implications (for consideration by the relevant committee) and Parliament has the power to defer bills to another financial year so that their potential impact can be properly considered. The PBO operates under serious resource constraints, but its support to the Budget Committee has made a real difference to the quality of parliamentary engagement in the budget process. The author of the Uganda Budget Act, Hon. Beatrice Kiraso, believes that a combination of the act and the creation of the PBO have enabled the Budget Committee to report on any inconsistencies in the three year revenue and expenditure projections made by the government. The PBO has also, working closely with the Ministry of Finance, standardized the policy statement format, including value-for-money information and the extent to which sectoral targets were achieved. Such statements are reviewed by committees with assistance from PBO economists. The PBO verifies the accuracy of the certificate of financial implications which accompanies every Bill introduced in Parliament and advises on the implications for the budget for that financial year. Indeed, the government has been forced to delay some initiatives after the PBO determined that they were not included in the current year s budget. Finally, the PBO works closely with ministries to ensure that government keep supplementary expenditures to within 3 per cent of what is budgeted (a requirement of the Budget Act). The PBO is headed by a director and there are positions for about 27 experts within the organization. iv. National Assembly Budget Office (NABO): Republic of Korea (NABO, 2010; The National Assembly in the Republic of Korea has established four support organizations: the National Assembly Secretariat (established in 1947); the National Assembly Library (1950), the National Assembly Budget Office (2003) and National Assembly Research Office (2007). They work on an equal footing to support the National Assembly.

7 The NABO was established as a fiscal institution to support the activities of the legislative body. The mission of the NABO is to support legislative activities through analysis and evaluation of national finances and policies with the aim of becoming a fiscal think-tank relied upon by the National Assembly and trusted by citizens. The NABO s goal is to be the watchdog of national finance and guide of national policies. The NABO is mandated to encourage greater discipline in public spending and allow the legislature to play a larger role in determining how the state obtains its revenue and how that revenue is spent. It supports the National Assembly by analysing and evaluating issues related to the national budget, fund and fiscal operations. All experts and professional staff of the NABO conduct independent and non-partisan research and analysis. In summary, the NABO: Provides nonpartisan, objective information and analysis to committees and members of the National Assembly; Conducts research and analysis on the budget and on the performance of the government s fiscal operations; Estimates the annual cost of bills proposed in the legislature for the following five years after a bill is enacted and the costs each related party must bear if the bill is passed; and Analyses and evaluates government programs and medium-to-long term fiscal needs. When scrutinizing the effectiveness and efficiency of specific government programs, the NABO conducts unbiased evaluations of major government programs and policies, performance management of government agencies, and offers ideas for improvement. The NABO also provides support for more sizable and better planned fiscal operations through a mid to longterm fiscal demand analysis. It provides feedback on the government s activities and assists the National Assembly s supervision of the administration. As part of its mandate to review the budget s economic assumptions and fiscal risks, the NABO forecasts an annual and mid-term economic outlook and estimates tax revenues based on its macroeconomic outlook, and

8 analyses the direction for state expenditure. It reviews the government fiscal balance and liabilities and studies are also carried out on major economic policies that affect state finances. The budget of the NABO was $12.7 million US Dollars for the 2010 financial year. It has 105 staff. The NABO is composed of four divisions and seventeen teams. The divisions are: a Budget Analysis Division; an Economic Analysis Division; a Program Evaluation Division; and Planning and Management Division (see Table 2). Table 2: NABO Organizational Structure Planning and Management Division Budget Analysis Division Economic Analysis Division Program Evaluation Division Human Resources Economic Budget Analysis Economic Policy Analysis Economic Program Management Evaluation Planning and Cooperation Industrial Budget Analysis Macro Economic Analysis Industrial Program Evaluation Social Budget Analysis Fiscal Policy Analysis Social Program Evaluation Administrative Budget Tax Analysis Administrative Program Analysis Evaluation Bill Cost Estimates 1 Revenue Estimation Bill Cost Estimates 2 V. Congressional Planning and Budget Department (CPBD): Philippines (Johnson & Stapenhurst, 2008) The independent CPBD was created by the Philippine Congress in 1990 under the secretariat of the House of Representatives. It is modelled on the Unites States CBO (but unlike the CBO it serves only one house of the nation s two-house legislature). It has three main functions: Assisting the House of Representatives in formulating its agenda Providing House Leaders and members with technical information, analyses, and recommendations on important social and economic policy issues; and Conducts analyses on the impact of legislation and conducts research on identified policy issues.

9 Among the publications issued by the CPBD are Updates on emerging policy issues An annual macroanalysis of the budget An analysis of the medium-term economic development plan Occasional papers and a Facts and Figures publication signalling trends and providing statistics on socioeconomic conditions in the Philippines. vi. Center for Public Finance Studies (CEFP): Mexico (Johnson & Stapenhurst, 2008) Established in 1998 by the House of Deputies, the CEFP is a technical, nonpartisan office in the manner of the other PBOs. It has particular similarities with the CPBD in the Philippines as it serves the House, but not the Senate. Information is provided to committees, legislative groups, and individual members of the House. The CEFP s functions are to analyse: The executive s trimester reports on the national economic situation, public finance, and public debt. The executive s annual report on the implementation of the National Development Plan, and provide relevant information to subject area committees. The budget initiatives, tax laws, fiscal laws, and finance information that the executive presents to the House. vii. The Parliamentary Budget Officer: Canada (Library of Parliament (2011); Page (2010) The Federal Accountability Act amended the Parliament of Canada Act to create the position of Parliamentary Budget Officer (as opposed to a parliamentary budget office). The legislation is constructed in such a way that the officer is within the parliamentary institution and the reporting structure of Parliament: the PBO position is defined as an officer of the Library of Parliament. The PBO reports to the Parliamentary Librarian who, in turn, reports to the

10 Speakers of the Senate and the House of Commons. The Officer is appointed to hold office for a renewable term of not more than five years. The Officer has four main duties: Provide analysis to the Senate and the House of Commons on the state of the nation s finances and trends in the national economy; Undertake the above research upon request of any of the listed committees (these include all committees with a mandate to consider government estimates); When requested by such a committee, conduct research into those estimates; and Upon request by individual members of parliament or a committee provide estimates of the financial cost of proposal over which Parliament has jurisdiction. The PBO provides three core products and services: Research conducted on request from committees and parliamentarians Regular analysis products such as fact sheets, briefing notes, and in-depth economic and fiscal reports working papers, and Independent research initiated from within the PBO on economic issues. The PBO collaborates with external experts and priority is given to the potential to contribute to increasing budget transparency or analysis that may impact the government s finances or the Canadian economy. In addition to the estimates committees, the Canadian PBO has formal relationships with the Standing Committee on Finance of the House of Commons; the Standing Committee on National Finance of the Senate; and the Standing Committee on Public Accounts of the House of Commons. These committees can request the Canadian PBO to undertake financial research and analysis. The Canadian PBO can also provide such information to a committee of either House of Parliament.

11 The PBO is provided with a legislated right of access to data that are necessary for the performance of the PBO research and analysis mandates. Table 3: Financial and Human Resources: Canada PBO Planned Financial Resources $1.8 million (adjusted to $2.4 million) $2.8 million Human Resources The current Budget Officer has described experience of the first two years at PBO as broken down into three overlapping periods: the first year (2008) involving the establishment of the operating model and office structure and the development and the release of initial products on the cost of the Afghanistan engagement and the first PBO economic and fiscal outlook; a period of adjustment in 2009 involving a review by the Joint Committee of the Library of Parliament on PBO operations; and a period of progression in which PBO moved forward on analysis with broader support from parliamentarians and public, and saw the return of its original planned budget. viii. Parliamentary Budget Office: New South Wales (Lovelock, arybudgetoffice) The Parliamentary Budget Officer Act 2010 established an independent officer of parliament to overcome objections which had been expressed about previous arrangements under which NSW Treasury provided estimates of costs of election promises. The functions of the Parliamentary Budget Officer commenced on 3 February 2011.

12 The mandate of the PBO is to cost election policies and proposals which a parliamentary leader and independent members of parliament might submit during the run-up to a general election. The officer is required to publish a list of policies and their budget impact for the current financial year and the three following financial years. He/she can also correct any misrepresentation of his or her work. Although legislation does not require political parties or independent members of parliament to provide their election policies for costing, the goal of the Parliamentary Budget Office is to try to ensure that all election promises are costed accurately and quickly so that NSW voters can exercise their voting responsibilities in an informed manner. The officer is also charged with providing parliamentarians with technical briefings on financial, fiscal and economic matters, and may cost proposals submitted outside election periods. Outside of the election cycle, the office aims to ensure that members of parliament are accurately and promptly advised on the estimated costs of their proposals and on economic, financial and fiscal matters in which they have expressed an interest. The PBO is not enabled to work for the committees of the Parliament. The proposed organisation chart for the PBO is shown below. Figure 3: NSW PBO Organizational Chart

13 The indicative budget is AUS$4 million for the first year of operations (2011) and $3 million a year thereafter. ix. Budget Analysis Bureau: Morocco (Straussman & Renoni 2009; USAID 2011) The Budget Analysis Bureau (BAB) supports both houses of Morocco s parliament. The Bureau has expanded the legislature s role in evaluating and executing the national budget by providing more than 40 budget papers, enabling parliamentarians to better understand the budget and provide more effective analysis. The BAB reports to the House s decision making body where all political groups are represented and the budget committee. It is mandated to analyse the national budget and evaluate its execution; assess the executive branch s policy of public debt management; analyse the

14 financial impact of legislation and undertake research about parliament s inclusion in the budget process. The inclusion of parliament in the budget cycle was recently extended from 70 days to 6 months. The BAB responds to requests from parliamentarians and is a reference for MPs who are drafting legislation including amendments to the national budget. Both budget committees in the bicameral parliament use the BAB products. The BAB budget for fiscal year 2009 was doubled to help fulfil its role as an independent directorate. x. Parliamentary Budgetary Office: Jordan (Straussman & Renoni 2009) The Jordan PBO reports primarily to the Finance and Economic Committee. It has no legal stipulations, but its work includes budget analysis reports and lists of questions for each segment of the budget (used by the Finance and Economic Committee).The PBO also provides reports analysing the performance of government based on budget data which is used by all interested parliamentarians. The PBO has not yet been fully used by other committees. Day to day activities include analysing economic news; developing macroeconomic indicators; training parliamentary staff; answering MPs inquiries; and preparing reports about the government s fiscal and monetary performance. xi. National Assembly Parliamentary Budget Office: Kenya (Straussman & Renoni 2009) The Kenyan PBO is a newly created non-partisan professional office of the National Assembly whose primary function is to provide timely and objective information and analysis concerning the national budget and economy. The PBO reports to the Parliamentary Service Commission through the Director and the Clerk of the National Assembly. The tasks of the PBO are to support MPs in overseeing the national

15 budget; providing budget-related information to committees; conducting analytical studies requested by the Parliament on the budget; liaising with the Treasury and other organisations with interest in budget matters. It is expected that the PBO will have a total of 36 staff by xii. Parliamentary Budget Office: Afghanistan (Straussman & Renoni 2009; The PBO was inaugurated on December 6th, It provides technical and specialized research on the fiscal, economic and expenditure issues of Afghanistan. The Budget Office s legal status, mandate, composition and structure have been established by legal mandate. The Office has autonomy to conduct fiscal and budgetary research studies without political interference. Three full-time dedicated Afghan experts staff the Budget Office and are supported in their mandate and duties by the USAID/Afghanistan Parliamentary Assistance Program where a further three experts are engaged in supporting the Budget Office. International and national experts are hired regularly, providing a strong and complement backing to the MPs in the pursuit of their democratic mandate to represent the Afghan people. Annex A provides a descriptive matrix of Parliamentary Budget Offices in Kenya, Jordan, Afghanistan and Morocco. B. Fiscal Councils Box 7: Fiscal Councils Austria huss.jsp The Public Debt Committee was established in 2002, and receives financial support from the Austrian Central bank. It provides recommendations on the direction of fiscal policy, and the overall fiscal stance. Belgium

16 The Federal Planning Bureau, established in 1994, provides a range of services along similar lines to the CPB in the Netherlands (see below). In addition, the High Council of Finance, which was reformed in 1989, overseas the coordination of regional and national fiscal policy. It sets medium term objectives for regional and national budget deficits, and proposes annual targets, which form the basis for government negotiations. The High Council is chaired by the Minister of Finance, but has representatives from inside and outside government. Although it has no formal decision making power, it does exert considerable influence. Denmark The Economic Council, established in 1962, prepares economic reports and forecasts on a range of issues including fiscal policy. Hungary The Fiscal Council of the Republic of Hungary was set up in 2009 as an independent state institution that endeavours to ensure the responsible management of public resources. It prepares macroeconomic forecasts which represent the baseline for budgetary decisions. It also provides comment and advice on fiscal planning more generally, within the context of existing fiscal rules. Slovenia The Public Finance Act of 2009 requires the creation of an independent advisory body to provide assessments of the public finances. Source: Simon Wren-Lewis (2011) i. Fiscal Council: Sweden ( The Swedish Fiscal Council was established in It consists of eight members and is assisted by a secretariat with four employees. The mission of the Council is to provide an independent evaluation of the Swedish Government s fiscal policy. The Council has no formal relationship to parliament and its only output is an annual report, which is addressed to the government, although it also works to achieve an increased public discussion in society of economic policy. However, the Parliament s Finance Committee organises a public hearing on the basis of the annual report. The Council s annual report contains the following information: - An assessment of the extent to which the government s fiscal objectives are achieved. - An evaluation of whether economic developments are in line with healthy long-run growth and sustainable high employment. - An examination of the clarity of the government s Budget Bill and Spring Fiscal

17 Policy Bill with respect to the grounds given for economic policy and the motivations for policy proposals. - An evaluation of the quality of the government s economic forecasts as well as the underlying models. ii. United Kingdom: The Office for Budget Responsibility (Calmfours & Wren-Lewis 2011) ( The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was formed in May 2010 to make an independent assessment of the public finances and the economy. It has a very different structure and remit than the Swedish Fiscal Policy Council. It has direct control over the forecast and makes all the key judgments that drive the official projections. The OBR has full access to the necessary data and analysis produced by the Treasury and is much more integrated into government decisionmaking. The OBR presents a range of outcomes around its forecasts to demonstrate the degree of uncertainty. Based on these range of outcomes, in each Budget and Pre-Budget Report the OBR will confirm whether the Government's policy is consistent with a better than 50 per cent chance of achieving the forward looking fiscal mandate set by the Chancellor. The OBR also has a role in making an independent assessment of the public sector balance sheet, including analysing the costs of ageing, public service pensions and Private Finance Initiative contracts. The OBR is precluded from formally examining the consequences of alternatives to current government policy and does not comment on the merits of individual policies. The eventual size of the OBR is expected to be about 20 and the office is going to be moved from a different location than the Treasury. However, it is expected to rely on Treasury expertise when producing its fiscal forecasts. Conclusion

18 A number of countries have PBOs or fiscal councils, although their role and structure differ. This unit provides basic information of such units together with links for further information on each jurisdiction. A striking feature of existing budgetary units is their diversity: They range in size from the CBO in the US that employs around 250 staff to councils in Slovenia and Sweden with minimal staff. While some have a narrow remit focusing on macroeconomic fiscal assessment and sustainability, others also provide assessments of either individual fiscal projects (e.g. in the US and Canada) or other issues such as employment policies (e.g. in Sweden and the Netherlands). Some produce forecasts, while others do not. A common feature of all fiscal councils established so far is that they only play an advisory role, with none having the power to determine the size of budget deficits While some councils make policy recommendations (including in Austria, Belgium, Denmark and Sweden), others are explicitly precluded from recommending particular courses of action (e.g. the CBO and the CPB). (Calmfours & Wren-Lewis, 2011) Unit 5 Questions Please answer each of the following questions. If you are taking this course in a group you may then meet to discuss your answers. 1. Compare and contrast the role and structure of any two PBOs. Which is most effective and why? Select Bibliography United States: Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Johnson, J & Stapenhurst, R (2008) Legislative Budget Offices: International Experiences in Legislative Oversight and Government Accountability: A World Perspective by Rick Stapenhurst, Riccardo Pelizzo, David Olson and Lisa Von Trapp. World Bank Publications.

19 Kiraso, Beatrice (2008). Establishment of Uganda s Parliamentary Budget Office and the Parliamentary Budget Committee. in Legislative Oversight and Government Accountability: A World Perspective by Rick Stapenhurst, Riccardo Pelizzo, David Olson and Lisa Von Trapp. World Bank Publications. California: Legislative Analyst s Office Calmfors, L and Simon Wren-Lewis (2011) What Should Fiscal Councils do? Oxford, University of Oxford Lovelock, L (2010) Submission by the Clerk of the Parliaments, Legislative Council of New South Wales to the Joint Select Committee on The Parliamentary Budgetary Office. NABO (2010) An Introduction to The National Assembly Budget Office, NABO, Republic of Korea. NABO (2011) Page, K. (2010). Lessons from Canada, Paper to Conference on Independent Fiscal Institutions, March 18-19, Fiscal Council Republic of Hungary, Budapest. Page, K (2010). Submission to the Senate Standing Committee on Finance and Public Administration Legislation Committee Regarding the Parliamentary Budget Office Bill 2010, Canberra, Parliament of Australia. Parliament of Canada Parliament of New South Wales Straussman, J & Renoni, A. (2009) Establishing a Parliamentary Budget Office as an Element of Good Governance, New York, Center for International Development, State University of New York. United States Agency for International Development Sweden: Fiscal Council United Kingdom: The Office for Budget Responsibility

20 Wren-Lewis, Simon (2011)