Politics of Fiscal Policy: What do we know
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1 Politics of Fiscal Policy: What do we know Sanjeev Gupta XXX REGIONAL FISCAL POLICY SEMINAR Santiago March 2018 Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org
2 Drawn From a Recent Book Published by the IMF Last Year Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org 1
3 Outline I. Why Focus on Political Economy of Fiscal Policy II. Nexus Between Politics and Fiscal Policy: Elections, Divisions and Ideology III. Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Institutions IV.Supranational Fiscal Politics V. Main Policy Messages Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org 2
4 I. Rationale Economics and politics are co-determined, especially with regard to fiscal policy. The government s three core functions are inherently political in nature: Allocation Stabilization Redistribution Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org 3
5 I. Rationale What is different in the results? Unlike previous studies which focused mainly on advanced economies, the sample also contains emerging and developing countries The results go beyond electoral politics and use various electoral calendar variables, measures of political fragmentation, and indicators of ideological polarization to explain how political factors affect fiscal outcomes The results further look at the role that fiscal institutions can play in bringing fiscal outcomes closer to their optimum Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org 4
6 II. Politics and Fiscal Policy Fiscal Outcomes Political Factors Elections Political Divisions Ideology Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org 5
7 II. Impact of Elections On fiscal deficits: up to 1% of GDP higher deficits during election years, with pressure coming from the wage side, particularly in emerging and developing countries On budget s composition: growth rate of public consumption grows and that of public investment declines as elections approach (Rogoff, 1990) Source: Gupta and others (2016) Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org 6
8 II. Impact of Elections On budget s composition: public wages grow before elections Source: Own elaboration (Data: Fiscal Politics, Chapter 6) Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org 7
9 II. Impact of Elections Months to elections The second way spending composition is affected by electoral investment cycles: the growth rate of public investment peaks about 28 months before elections. Source: Fiscal Politics, Chapter 5 Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org 8
10 II. Impact of Elections Electoral investment cycles (cont d): Institutions and governance matter Growth rate of public investment Growth rate of public investment Source: Gupta, Liu and Mulas-Granados (2016) Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org 9
11 II. Impact of Elections The tax side also affected as probability of tax reform in Latin America declines as elections approach Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org 10
12 II. Impact of Political Divisions Political divisions are associated with large deviations between promised adjustment in fiscal deficit and actual outcome. Source: Fiscal Politics, Chapter 2 Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org 11
13 II. Impact of Political Divisions Weaker majorities are associated with larger debt accumulation in AEs and with smaller debt reduction in EME/LIDCs, during the electoral cycle. AE EME/LIDC Percent of GDP Source: Fiscal Politics, Chapter 9 Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org 12
14 II. Impact of Political Divisions Big cabinets (with many ministers) accumulate much more public debt than small cabinets Percent of GDP Source: Fiscal Politics, Chapter 9 Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org 13
15 II. Impact of Ideology IDEOLOGY AND TAXES: Right wing governments are more likely to increase the VAT rates during crises, while left governments prefer to increase top-personal income taxes. Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org 14
16 II. Finally the Impact of Ideology IDEOLOGY AND SPENDING: Left-wing governments are associated with larger public investment booms Source: Gupta and others (2015) Now or Later? The Political Economy of Public Investment in Democracies, IMF Working Paper No.15/175 Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org 15
17 III. Can Fiscal Rules and Institutions be Helpful? FISCAL RULES help reduce the electoral fiscal cycle Government Size and Spending Volatility Source: Fiscal Politics (Chapter 12) Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org 16
18 III. Can Fiscal Rules and Institutions be Helpful? FISCAL COUNCILS can improve fiscal performance Source: Fiscal Politics (Chapter 14) Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org 17
19 IV. Supranational Fiscal Politics Euro Area: Share of Non-Compliers (1999=2015, EA-19) Supranational rules: effective when owned by country authorities Lack of ownership explains weak compliance in Euro Area Source: Fiscal Politics (Chapter 18) Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org 18
20 IV. Supranational Fiscal Politics IMF programs have shown a high degree of ownership reflecting a growing reliance on IMF TA. Countries with a program conditionality in the revenue area were successful in increasing public revenues Source: Fiscal Politics, Chapter 19 Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org 19
21 V. Policy Messages Politics has a decisive influence on fiscal policy formulation and performance The impact of elections and political divisions is particularly significant It seems that ideology has less of an impact Budget institutions help soften the effect of politics on fiscal policy External constraints work if owned by country authorities Sanjeev Gupta CGDev.org 20
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