REPUBLIC OF KENYA COUNTY GOVERNMENT OF ISIOLO FINANCE AND ECONOMIC PLANNING ISIOLO COUNTY BUDGET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK PAPER SEPTEMBER 2015

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1 REPUBLIC OF KENYA COUNTY GOVERNMENT OF ISIOLO FINANCE AND ECONOMIC PLANNING ISIOLO COUNTY BUDGET REVIEW AND OUTLOOK PAPER SEPTEMBER 2015 Foreword The Public Finance Management Act, 2012 brought in a paradigm shift in budget making process at national and county level. Sections 117 and 118 of the Act provides for the preparation of the County Fiscal Strategy Paper (CFSP) and County Budget Review and Outlook Paper (CBROP)by the County Treasury

2 The County Budget Review and Outlook Paper (CBROP) providethe basis for the revision of the 2015/16 budget in the context of the Supplementary Estimates. CBROP further provides the broad fiscal parameters for the next budget and medium term period. The law requires CBROP to present the fiscal outcome for the previous financial year and to state how this outcome affects the financial objectives contained in that CFSP. The CBROP, 2015containsinformation that shows changes in the forecasts in the CFSP, It therefore plays a critical role in the preparation of budgets and management of public resources. To strengthen the budget preparation process, the County government will continue to embrace performance budgeting and deepen public financial reforms to increase efficiency and effectiveness in service delivery and value for money. Further, fiscal discipline will seek to ensure that the county is able to work towards reducing absolute poverty levels by bringing relevant and essentials services closer to people. The poverty level in the county iscurrently estimated at 65.3 percent (Socio-Economic Atlas of Kenya, 2014) and there is an urgent need forintensive effort to continue bringing these figures down. We are committed to accelerate economic growth and development in line with the expectations and commitments we made to the people of Isiolo County. Towards this end, we shall ensure that there is transparency and accountability by relaying our performance accountability to the public. We will continue to publish and publicizeour performances to our people as required by the Constitution and the Public Finance Management Act 2012 Hon. Ali Suraw County Executive Committee Member Finance and Economic Planning 2

3 Table of Content Foreword... 1 Table of Content... 3 I. INTRODUCTION... 5 Background... 5 Objective of CBROP... 5 II. REVIEW OF FISCAL PERFORMANCE IN THE FINANCIAL YEAR 2014/ Overview... 6 Fiscal Performance for Financial Year 2014/ County Expenditure... 8 Recurrent Expenditure... 8 III. IMPLICATION OF 2014/2015 FISCAL PERFORMANCE ON FINANCIAL OBJECTIVES... 9 IV. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK Developments for the Financial Year 2015/ Outlook for the Financial Year 2015/ V. RESOURCES ALLOCATION FRAMEWORK Adjustment to 2015/16 Budget Medium-Term Expenditure Framework VI. BUDGET FRAMEWORK FOR FINANCIAL YEAR 2015/ Revenue projections Expenditure Forecasts VII. FISCAL RISKS

4 Legal Basis for the Publication of the County Budget Review and Outlook Paper The County Budget Review and Outlook Paper is prepared in accordance with Section 118 of the Public Financial Management Act, The law states that: 1. The County Treasury shall prepare and submit to County Executive committee for approval by 15 th October of each financial year, a County Budget Review and Outlook Paper which shall include: a) Actual fiscal performance in the previous financial year compared to the budget appropriation for that year; b) Updated economic and financial forecasts with sufficient information to show changes from the forecasts in the most recent County Fiscal strategy paper; c) Information on how actual financial performance for the previous financial year may have affected compliance with the fiscal responsibility principles or the financial objectives in the latest County Fiscal strategy paper; and d) The reasons for any deviation from the financial objectives together with proposals to address the deviation and the time estimated to do so. 2. County Executive committee shall consider the County Budget Review and outlook Paper with a view of approving it with or without amendments, not later than fourteen days after its submission. 3. Not later than seven days after the CBROP has been approved by Executive committee, the County Treasury shall: a) Submit the paper to the Budget and Appropriation Committee of the County Assembly to be laid before the County assembly; and b) Publish and publicize the paper not later than fifteen days after laying the Paper before County Assembly. Fiscal Responsibility Principles in the Public Financial Management Law In line with the Constitution, the Public Financial Management (PFM) Act, 2012,sets out the fiscal responsibility principles to ensure prudency and transparency inthe management of public resources. The PFMA, 2012 law {Section 107(b)} states that: a) The county government s recurrent expenditure shall not exceed the county government s total revenue; 4

5 b) Over the medium term, a minimum of 30% of the County budget shall be allocated to development expenditure; c) The County government s expenditure on wages and benefits for public officersshall not exceed a percentage of the County government revenue as prescribed by the regulations; d) Over the medium term, the County government s borrowings shall be used onlyfor the purpose of financing development expenditure and not for recurrent expenditure; e) Public debt and obligations shall be maintained at a sustainable level as approved by County Government ; f) Fiscal risks shall be managed prudently; and g) A reasonable degree of predictability with respect to the level of tax rates and taxbases shall be maintained, taking into account any tax reforms that may be made in the future. I. INTRODUCTION Background 1. This County Budget Review and Outlook Paper (CBROP) is the third to be prepared by the county government of Isiolo. The CBROP contains a review of the fiscal performance of the Financial Year 2014/15. Objective of CBROP 2. The objective is to provide a review of the previous fiscal performance and how this impacts on the financial objectives and fiscal responsibility principles set out in the County Fiscal Strategy Paper, This together with updated economic outlook provides a basis for revision of the current budget in the context of Supplementary Estimates and the broad fiscal parameters underpinning the next budget and the medium term expenditure framework. Details of the fiscal framework and the medium term policy priorities will be firmed up in the CFSP The CBROP will be a key document in linking policy, planning and budgeting. The County Government has initiated the mid-term review of the County Integrated Development Plan (CIDP) and this will help in budgetary preparation and programming for Financial Year 2016/ This year s CBROP is embedded on the CIDP priorities and in addition takes into account emerging challenges in the devolved system of government. The launch of the Sector Working Groups will see the formulation of the programmes for the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) focusing on developing of new programmes for the next MTEF 2016/ /19. 5

6 5. The PFMA, 2012has set standards for compliance with the MTEF budgeting process. Therefore, it is expected that the financial year 2015/16sector budget ceilings will form the indicative baseline for sector budget ceilings for the Financial Year 2016/17. However, the sector ceilings shall be modified to reflect the development goals and priorities of the county government. 6. The updated county economic outlook will be firmed up in the CFSP 2016 to reflect any changes in economic and financial conditions. The CFSP 2016 will be submitted to County Assembly by February 2016.This will be in line with the deadline of February of every year under the PFMA, II. REVIEW OF FISCAL PERFORMANCE IN THE FINANCIAL YEAR 2014/15 Overview 1. The fiscal performance in 2014/15 was generally satisfactory despite challenges in the disbursement from National government funding to county government. Revenue collection for the period under review was not satisfactory as much of the forecasted revenue were not realized due to the continued decline in the tourism sector. Fiscal Performance for Financial Year 2014/15 1. The total cumulative revenue collection from local sources for the period between July 2014 and June 2015 waskshs133, 277,040compared toa target of Kshs. 360,000,000.This represents a negative deviation of62.98 percent in revenue collection. The poor performance in revenue collection was largely on account of unrealistic revenue targets and the continued decline in the tourism sector growth. We have continued to record low tourists visits in the county game reserves due to insecurity concerns in the county. 2. The county government must therefore open other revenue fronts and enhance revenue collection. There is an urgent need to diversify revenue sources, seal leakages and automate of revenue collection, enhanced supervision and reshuffle of staff in the revenue department after every three years. 3. From the National Government, the county received disbursements of Kshs.2,667,456, Proceeds from Foreign grants (Danida) was Kshs. 5,590,000. However projected proceeds from World Bank totaling to Kshs. 13,498,670 were never realized 6

7 Table 1 below provides the summary of the internal county revenue sources. Table 1: County Government Local Revenue No. Source of Revenue BUDGETED TOTAL DEVIATIONS 1 SBP & Promotions Fee 5,500,000 5,636,920 (136,920) 2 Agri. Produce Cess/Barter/Market Entrance 1,500,000 1,417,160 82,840 3 Livestock Cess 6,000,000 4,429,205 1,570,795 4 Sand Cess 10,444,600 7,466,630 2,977,970 5 Miraa Cess 5,000,000 5,314,677 (314,677) 6 Stand Premium 1,500,000 1,433,320 66,680 7 Clearance & Consent 500, , ,600 8 Application Fee 1,500,000 1,839,265 (339,265) 9 Tender Doc Sales 2,000, ,000 1,326, Water Connection Fee - 11 Water Levies 3,000,000 1,318,410 1,681, Murram Cess 300,000 23, , Parking Fee 6,000,000 5,569, , Slaughter Fee 1,500,000 1,635,380 (135,380) 15 Hides & Skin 400, , , Survey Fee 8,500, ,690 8,396, Building Approval 1,600, ,059 1,464, Land Rates & Rents - Land Rates & Rents Current 30,000,000 30,000,000 Land Rates & Rents Arrears 40,000,000 19,740,491 20,259,509 Penalties Rates & Rents 200, , Other Sectors 21,455,400 21,455,400 Hospital 15,547,326 (15,547,326) Physical Planner 38,360 (38,360) 7

8 Liquor Application 2,292,200 (2,292,200) Veterinary/ Meat inspection/fish Cess 205,870 (205,870) Social Hall Hire 150,000 (150,000) Co-operative/Audit fees 47,285 (47,285) 21 Market stalls/kiosks 500, , , Insurance - 23 Plot transfer/subdivision/registration 600, ,000 (110,000) 24 Imprest 79,970 (79,970) 24 Impounding fees 2,000,000 18,000 1,982, Town Collection 150,000,000 76,472,988 73,527, Game Collection 210,000,000 56,804, ,195,948 GRAND TOTAL 360,000, ,277, ,722,960 County Expenditure Total expenditure for the period under review amounted to Kshs. 3,111,073,333against a budget of Kshs. 3,380,658,035representing an under spending of Kshs269,584,702(8 percent deviation from the revised budget). The shortfall was attributed to unrealized internal revenue and delays by the National Treasury to release funds to County treasury. Recurrent Expenditure Recurrent expenditure amounted to Kshs 1,989,031,815against an approved supplementary budget estimates of Kshs. 2,058,988,161 representing under spending on recurrent budget of Kshs. 69,956,346 or an absorption rate of 96.6percent as shown in the table 2 below. 5. Table 2: Recurrent Expenditure Sector Approved Supplementary Budget Total Expenditure Variance Absorption Rate County Assembly Services 315,000, ,752,218 23,247, % Office of the Governor 380,679, ,318,477 3,361, % Finance and Economic Planning 348,308, ,284,359 23, % Land, Urban Planning Roads, Housing and Public Works 26,479,400 22,685,556 3,793, % Agriculture 58,297,574 52,857,336 5,440, % Livestock, Veterinary and Fisheries 72,182,620 64,689,109 7,493, % Cohesion 74,412,303 66,247,099 8,165, % 8

9 Education, vocational Training 100,045,455 93,611,668 6,433, % Tourism 71,066,069 69,015,870 2,050, % Public Service management &ICT 24,207,540 24,140,595 66, % Water Irrigation, Energy, Environment and Natural Resources 55,619,056 49,129,188 6,489, % Health 529,640, ,300, , % Trade and Industrialization 3,050, ,050, % TOTALS 2,058,988,161 1,989,031,815 69,956, % 6. Development expenditure was Kshs.1,122,041,518 compared to an approved supplementary budget of Kshs. 1,321,669,874. This represented development budget variance of Kshs. 199,628,356 or absorption rate of 84.9 percent as shown in the table 3 below. Table 3: Development Expenditure Sector Approved Recurrent Variance Absorption Budget Expenditure Rate County Assembly 30,000, ,000, % Office of the Governor 214,328, ,873,014 8,455, % Finance and Economic Planning 163,434, ,367,048 18,067, % Roads, Housing and Public Works 343,159, ,064,452 22,095, % Agriculture 12,745,000 9,461,000 3,284, % Livestock, Veterinary and Fisheries 47,900,000 27,753,835 20,146, % Cohesion 30,000,000 25,663,064 4,336, % Education, vocational Training 80,700,000 73,624,197 7,075, % Tourism and Trade 94,376,289 58,457,866 35,918, % Water, Irrigation and Natural Resources 200,856, ,882,229 24,974, % Health 104,169,526 78,894,813 25,274, % TOTALS 1,321,669,874 1,122,041, ,628, % III. IMPLICATION OF 2014/2015 FISCAL PERFORMANCE ON FINANCIAL OBJECTIVES 1. The performance in the Financial Year 2014/15 affected the financial objectives set out in the Budget in the following ways: a) The macroeconomic assumptions underpinning the 2014/15 budget and the medium term period was slower than the envisaged real National Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and the significant increase in inflation rate; b) The base for revenue and expenditure projections changed, implying the need for adjustment in the fiscal aggregates for the current budget and the medium-term; and 9

10 c) The pace of execution of the budget by sectors was slow as a result of capacity gaps and uncertainty surrounding release of funds by the National Treasury. 2. Given the above deviations, the revision in revenues and expenditures will be based on the revised macroeconomic assumptions which will be firmed up in the context of the County Fiscal Strategy Paper The County Government will not deviate from the fiscal responsibility principles, but will make appropriate modification to the financial objectives to be contained in the County Fiscal Strategy Paper 2016to reflect the changing fiscal environment. IV. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK Developments for the Financial Year 2015/16 1. The County s performance is largely dependent on the formulation and implementation of prudent policies to guide service delivery. Further, the performance depends highly on the country s economic performance. Generally, the country operated under unstable macroeconomic environment which is projected to improve in the coming years. The County Government Budget Statement for the fiscal year 2015/2016 highlighted the following: a) Building on the gains of the previous budget and ensuring that the economy maintains a consistent,progressive and sustainable growth trajectory in the coming years b) Boosting food security through substantial investments in agriculture, irrigation and other innovative technologies c) Supporting infrastructure development and specifically building more access and feeder roads as a way of opening up the county to trade and investments d) Scaling up resources to improve the quality of education and health care systems to build a healthy and a productive human resource to drive county transformation agenda. e) Investing in tourism sector through aggressive marketing both in the foreign and domestic markets to boost economic growth and to create job opportunities f) Promoting pro-poor development initiatives, building resilience of the communities to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change g) Enlarging the circle of opportunities available to youth, women and persons with disabilities to start micro, small and medium enterprises h) Transforming the county into an emerging investments, trade and industrial hub i) Sealing revenue leakages; and j) Supporting anti-corruption initiatives. 10

11 2. The three largest expenditure drivers in the Financial Year 2015/16 are Land, Urban Planning, Roads and Public Works; Water, Environment, Irrigation and Natural resources; and Agriculture Livestock, Veterinary and Fisheries. 3. Isiolo County s economy is however, heavily dependent on livestock production and tourism products. The County is faced with acute shortage of health facilities such as dispensaries, clinics and health centers. The County government has therefore embarked on a comprehensive and deliberate strategy to improve healthcare by rehabilitation of existing health facilities, construction of new health facilities and providing adequate staffing to all health facilities. 4. The need for basic accommodation and office space for the Sub-County and Ward administration as well as transport facilities has resulted in significant resources being allocated to the executive sector. It is envisaged that dedicating significant resources to this sector will mitigate the critical need to support the operationalization of the devolved units up to village levels. 5. The County has also significantly invested in the Education sector, with budgetary provisions for construction of two ECD classrooms per ward. The county government has embarked on training and capacity building for the Early Childhood Development teachers as well as polytechnic instructors. 6. It is important to note that much consideration has been taken to ensure that the distribution of resources is sensitive to regional balance, as well as demographic distribution. As a result, both equity and efficiency have been one of the guiding principles in county resource allocations. The allocation for the Financial Year2015/16 is as shown in table 4 below; Table 3: Allocations for the Financial Year 2015/16 Vote Title Gross Current Expenditure Gross Capital Expenditure Gross Total Expenditure Kshs. Kshs. Kshs. 1 County Assembly 380,933,679 70,000, ,933,679 2 Governor s Office 258,769, ,000, ,769,521 Town Administration 14,100,000 25,000,000 39,100,000 3 Finance & Economic Planning 314,708, ,500, ,208,600 4 lands, urban Planning,Roads, Housing and 53,929, ,850, ,779,000 Public Works 5 Agriculture, Livestock,Veterinary and 117,567, ,000, ,567,400 Fisheries 7 County Cohesion, Intergovernmental 13,225,000 68,175,000 81,400,000 relations and Enterprise Development 8 Education, sports, Youth and Culture. 150,039,300 95,000, ,039,300 9 Tourism Culture and Social Services 45,977, ,500, ,477, County administration,public Service Management & ICT 70,085,000 9,100,000 79,185,000 11

12 11 Water, Irrigation,Energy, Environment and 101,102, ,331, ,433,000 Natural Resources 12 Health Services 567,564, ,370, ,934, Trade,Industrialization,Cooperative and Enterprise Development 26,995,000 40,000,000 66,995,000 Total Voted Expenditure 2,114,995,500 1,685,826,000 3,800,821,500 Outlook for the Financial Year 2015/16 1. There is still some one-off expenditure in the budget for 2015/16 which are necessary in ensuring that the county government is fully operational and provide a stable administrative framework. Such expenditures include house mortgage to county assembly members, construction of county both at sub county and ward levels, construction of health facilities, purchases of vehicles and equipments, office furniture, and refurbishment of buildings. 2. Such expenditures are mostly one-off and therefore may not need to be provided for in the near future. As a result, the budget outlook for the Financial Year 2015/16 promotes a re-orientation of expenditure with a focus towards poverty reduction as well as secured sources of livelihood. In order to accomplish this, efforts must be taken to critically examine the respective allocations for each sector and single out expenditures that can be re-designated to keydevelopment priority areas. 3. In this regard, severalmeasuresshall be used to identify areas where savings can be made. However, it will be important to understand that some sectors will continue to require more resources to finance non-core type expenditures to execute their mandates effectively. Thus, expenditure reductions for items such as both domestic and foreign travels, fuel and lubricants, printing, routine maintenance of vehicles, car hire, and hospitality supplies, among others must be made where extravagant spending is identified. It is therefore important that these expenditures be reduced reasonably without crippling the targeted sectors or spending units and re-designating the resultant savings to the core areas in the Financial Year 2016/17. V. RESOURCES ALLOCATION FRAMEWORK Adjustment to 2015/16 Budget 1. Resource allocation and utilization in this Financial Year and in the medium term period is guided by the emerging priorities, county plans and the principles of PFMA, 2012 to ensure effective and efficient utilization of public resources. The sector allocations were informed by the county development goals as well as the people's aspirations as captured in the County Integrated Development Plan, 2013/17 and Public Consultation Forums reports. The county goals arealigned to the goals and the objectives of the Second Medium Term Plan of Kenya s Vision

13 2. The risks to the 2015/16 budget include a continued weak revenue collection performanceand the medium term expenditure pressures with respect to the wage bill. In addition, implementation pace of development programmes continues to be a source of concern especially with regard to the insufficient resource allocations from the National Treasury, lack of capacity and delayed disbursement of funds. The risks will be monitored closely and measuresto reduce the risks include: a) County Public Service Board is tasked to harmonize the salaries of county government employees, former defunct local authorities employees and devolved central government employees; b) County Government has put on hold approval of any policy and proposed legislation, which establishes new county sector entities with personnel and wage implications. All such establishments are delayed until a comprehensive restructuring of the county Government is done in accordance with the Constitution; c) On the revenue side, the County Treasury has instituted corrective measures to reverse the decline in revenue collection from local sources,enhanced compliance audit of large outstanding property tax payers, initiated automation of highly potential but leaking revenue sources, and has instituted collection of other sources of taxes such as liquor licenses, car park fees, royalties, advertisement and rental charges; and d) All devolved ministries collecting revenue are instructed to deposit them to the County revenue fund account as soon as those revenues are realized. 3. While expenditure cuts are targeted on the one-off expenditures that do not require additional funding for the next financial year, expenditure increments will be continuously informed by the core needs identified through public consultation forums. In this regard, high impact areas or chronically neglected areas identifiedwill receive additional funding. Further, the most important areas of public spending will include equipping of new health facilities, rural water and sanitation improvement, provision of livestock vaccines and infrastructure, value addition and extension services. The revenue sourcesof the county are critically low and savings must be made and the non-core spending areas to be used to fund these urgent programs. Medium-Term Expenditure Framework 1. In view of the limited resources, we will continue to adjust non-priority expenditures to cater for the priority expenditures in all sectors. The County integrated development plan ( ) and its annual development plan 2015 will continue to guide resource allocations. 2. The priority sectors, including Health, Roads and Infrastructure, Livestock, Water, Education and Tourism will continue to receive adequate resources. Healthsector isalready receiving a significant share of resources in the budget and we require them to utilize the allocated resources more efficiently to generate fiscal space to accommodate strategic interventions in the sector. Livestock and Watersector will receive increasing share of resources to boost productivity with a view to deal with value addition and threats in food security in the county. 13

14 3. With the County Government s commitment in improving physical infrastructure countywide, the share of resources going to Roads, Housing and Public Works sector will continue to rise steadily over the medium term period. Other priority sectors such as Education, Sports, Youth and culture will also continue to receive adequate resources. 4. Reflecting the above medium-term expenditure framework, the table below provides the tentative projected baseline ceilings for the 2015 MTEF, classified by sector. Table 4: Total Expenditure Ceilings for the MTEF Period 2015/ /18 SECTOR NAME FY 2015/16 FY 2016/17 FY 2017/18 1 County Assembly 2 Governor s Office 450,933, ,971, ,729, ,769, ,440, ,697,914 Town Administration 39,100,000 40,664,000 42,290,560 3 Finance & Economic Planning 526,208, ,256, ,147,222 4 lands, urban Planning,Roads, Housing and Public Works 397,779, ,690, ,237,766 5 Agriculture, Livestock,Veterinary and Fisheries 309,567, ,950, ,828,100 7 County Cohesion, Intergovernmental relations and Enterprise Development 81,400,000 84,656,000 88,042,240 8 Education, sports, Youth and Culture. 245,039, ,840, ,034,507 9 Tourism Culture and Social Services 168,477, ,216, ,224, County administration,public Service Management & ICT 79,185,000 82,352,400 85,646, Water, Irrigation,Energy, Environment and Natural Resources 344,433, ,210, ,538, Health Services 724,934, ,931, ,088, Trade,Industrialization,Cooperative and Enterprise Development 66,995,000 69,674,800 72,461,792 Total Voted Expenditure 3,800,821,500 3,952,854,360 4,110,968,534 VI. BUDGET FRAMEWORK FOR FINANCIAL YEAR 2015/16 1. The budget framework for Financial Year 2015/16 is set against the background of County integrated development plan and the medium-term fiscal framework set out above. 14

15 Revenue projections 1. The revenue projections for the Financial Year 2015/16 budget are as follows: a) Equitable share of revenue raised nationally-kshs 3,056,565,534 b) Additional conditional allocation from national government-kshs 254,739,627 c) Additional allocations from loans and grants- Kshs 16,698,052 d) Revenue raised locally- Kshs 360,000,000 e) Appropriation in aid-kshs 112,818,287 Expenditure Forecasts 2. In 2015/16 the overall county budget was projected to increase by percent (or Kshs 420,163,465) up from the estimated Kshs 3,380,658,035 for the Financial Year 2014/15 budget. The budget absorption rate is projected increase from 92 percent in the Financial Year 2014/15 to 96 percent in the Financial Year 2015/ Recurrent budget increased from Kshs. 2,058,988,161 in the Financial Year 2014/15 to Kshs. 2,114,995,500 (2.7 percent increase) in the Financial Year 2015/16. The recurrent budget absorption rate is projected to increase from 96.6 percent in the Financial Year 2014/15 to 98 percent in Financial Year 2015/16. This is on the account of growth in nominal recurrent expenditure. The wage bill is expected to stabilize at 38 percent of total expenditure in the Financial Year 2015/ Development budget increased from Kshs 1,321,669,874 in the Financial Year 2014/15 to Kshs. 1,685,826,000(27.6 percent increase) in the Financial Year 2015/16. The development budget absorption rate is projected to increase from 84.9 percent in the Financial Year 2014/15 to 95 percent in 2015/16 Financial Year. This is on the account of improved human resource capacity in all the key sectors. 5. Expenditure ceilings on goods and services for sectors arebased on funding allocation in the Financial Year 2014/15 budget as the baseline. The ceilings are reduced to take into account one-off expendituresand then an adjustment factoris applied to take into account the general increase in prices. 6. The ceiling for development expenditures increased in nominal terms from the previous Financial Year 38.8 percent to 45 percent in the current Financial Year 2015/16. Most of the outlays are expected to support critical key sectors as mentioned above. VII. FISCAL RISKS 1. Despite the optimism, risks do remain. The county economy is still vulnerable to exogenous shocks as the current macroeconomic instability threatens the county economic stability. The macroeconomic management and performance of most of the sectors under the National Government have a ripple effect on how the County will perform. 15

16 2. The risks to the 2015/16 Financial Year s budget include challenges in revenue performance as the county continues to put structures in place, seal leakages and expand the revenue base. The current process of county restructuring, recruitment and rationalization of staff is expected to exert more pressure on wage bill. 3. With commitment to improving the livestock sector, the share of resources going to the sector will rise over the medium term period. County restructuring and staff rationalization will also receive greater attention in terms of resources and capacity support for the county to properly establish. Going forward, implementation pace in the spending units will be monitored closely especially with regard to the development expenditures. These will inform appropriate measures to be taken in the context of the next MTEF Budget. 4. Adjustments to the 2015/16 budget will also take into account actual performance of expenditure and absorption capacity for the remainder of the Financial Year. Because of the resource constraints faced, the County Government will rationalize expenditures and institute austerity measures by cutting down or suspending non-priority budget items. VIII. CONCLUSION AND WAY FORWARD 1. The fiscal outlook presented herein will seek to achieve the objectives outlined in the PFMA, 2012 and lay ground for the next Financial Year in terms of preparing the CBROP and CFSP. Fiscal discipline will be important in ensuring proper management of funds and delivery of expected output. Effective and efficient utilization of funds especially on capacity building on different sectors of the county will be crucial in ensuring that the County gets to deliver on its functions. 2. The set of policies outlined in this CBROP reflect the changing circumstances and are broadly in line with the County integrated development plan The county strategic objectives will form the basis for allocation of county resources. Details of the strategic objectives are provided in the first County integrated development plan Livestock sector will continue to play an important role in the county s economy. The vast range-land will continue to be an economic boost for Isiolo County. The realization of the full potential in this sector will translate to increased county revenue and job creation. 4. As budgetary resources are scarce, it is critical that County Sector Working Groups (CSWGs) prioritize their programmes within the available ceilings to ensure that use of public funds is in line with county government priorities. There is also need to ensure that currents resources are being utilized efficiently and effectively before more funding is considered for programmes. CSWGs needs to carefully consider detailed costing of projects, strategic significance, deliverables (output and outcomes), alternative interventions, administration and implementation plans. The County Fiscal Strategy Paper will be finalized by December 2015, well ahead of the February 2016 deadline as per the PFMA,

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