Workshop on Trade Policy and Trade Indicators

Transcription

1 Workshop on Trae Poliy an Trae Iniators Moule 3 Mariano Alvarez Eonomi Affairs Offier Zebulun Kreer Eonomi Affairs Offier Marelo Pereira Dolabella Consultant Eonomi Commission for Latin Ameria an the Caribbean

2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS In the BoP, eah ountry registers all transations wh natural or legal persons that are not onsiere resients. Thereby, various lassifiation reria, aoring to the nature of the transation, are applie: 6th Eion of Balane of Payments Manual IMF (2009) Manual on Statistis of International trae in Servies (2010) Benhmark Definion of Foreign Diret Investment - OECD (2008

3 Priniples an Basi Definions (1) Resiene: an instutional un will be onsiere a resient, if s enter of eonomi interest is loate whin the eonomi terrory of the ountry. Instutional Uns: An eonomi enty that is apable, in s own right, of owning assets, inurring liabilies, an engaging in eonomi ativies an in transations wh other enties. Family uns an physial persons, Legal an soial enties (firms), Non-prof instutions, Central government.

4 Priniples an Basi Definions (2) Eonomi terrory: geographial terrory uner aministration of a government, [whin whih persons, goos an apal move freely]. This also inlues islans, ontinental platforms an enlave terrories. [Curreny an eonomi unions are onsiere eonomi terrories] Center of eonomi interest: plae in whih eonomi ativies an transations are realize at a signifiant sale an intentions exist to ontinue these ativies inefinely or wh a lime but substantial perio of time. Exeptions an the 1 year rule

5 Simplifie Struture (6 th MBP) BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Net errors an Omissions Current Aount Finanial Aount Capal Aount From Employees From Investment Government Primary Inome Seonary Inome (Current Transfers) Diret Investment Portfolio Investment Finanial erivates Other Investment Capal transfers Nonfinanial assets Remtanes Other Goos an Servies Reserve assets Other Servies Goos Transportation Travel Maintenane an repairs (Fr. Goos) Goos proure in ports by arriers Other Servies (inlues 8 onepts) General Merhanise Goos uner merhanting (for Proessing) Nonmonetary gol

6 Servies Balane (6 th MBP) Constrution Insurane an pension Business Finanial Travel SERVICES Other Charges for the use of intelletual property Personal Postal an ourier Transportation Teleommuniations, omputer an information Freight Passenger Other Sea Sea Sea Other Business Personal, ultural, an rereational Air Other Air Other Air Other Government

7 The Data Soures The statistial ata of the Balane of Payments are provie by ifferent national an international soures. One ollete, they are harmonize wh the National Aount (SNA). The major rawbak is foun in the Servies Aount. Here, the General Agreement on Trae an Servies (GATS) refers to four so-alle moes of international servies inputs, where eah one inlues s own hallenges at the time of olletion of statistis.

8 The Four Moes of GATS 1. Cross-borer trae: from a resient of one eonomi terrory towars a resient of another one, whout a movement of persons; e.g. all enters. 2. Consumption abroa: the onsumption of a nonresient to the eonomi terrory where the servie is provie; e.g. travels. 3. Commerial presene: when a supplier establishes a presene in an eonomi terrory where is a nonresient, to provie a servie; e.g. branhes. 4. Presene of natural persons: when the supplier travels in person to an eonomi terrory where is a non-resient to provie a servie; e.g. tehniians.

9 Problems relate to ata olletion Moe Relevant soures Weaknesses Cross-borer trae Consumption abroa Commerial presene Presene of natural persons (selfemploye) Presene of natural persons (employe) Statistis of the Balane of Payments (other ategories ifferent from travel) Statistis of the Balane of Payments (mainly travel) Proution, Foreign Diret Investment, Foreign Affiliate Trae Statistis (FATS) Statistis of the Balane of Payments (other ategories ifferent from travel an transport) Employment statistis from FATS The Balane of Payments statistis o not istinguish between moes 1, 3, an 4. Travel also inlues goos an is not ivie into ifferent onsumption ategories. Proution statistis o not istinguish between national an foreign firms. Foreign Diret Investment statistis o not eliver sales ata; moreover s efinion oes not oinie wh that of the ommerial presene. FATS statistis only exist in the Une States, an the basi onepts are only reently being efine at the international level. The Balane of Payments statistis o not istinguish between moes 1, 3, an 4. The information is not available yet. Soure: Authors base on Chang et al. (1999)

10 Current Aount (1) Summarizes the esription of the ommerial movement of goos an servies, the transations wh proutive fator servies, an the urrent transfers of an eonomy. It is alulate from the sum of the net balanes of eah omponent: BCA = (G&S G&S ) (I I ) (CT CT ) where: / = Cres/Debs G&S = Goos an Servies Aount I = Inome (primary inome) CT = Current Transfers (seonary inome)

11 Current Aount (2) Jamaia an Central Amerian partners Balanes of the Components of the Current Aount, 2016 (in million $USD) Jamaia Costa Ria Guatemala Honuras Niaragua Panama Goos Servies Primary Inome Current Transfers Soure: Authors base on IMF ata

12 Current Aount (3) Jamaia an selete partners Balanes of the Components of the Current Aount, 2016 (in million $USD) Jamaia Dominian Rep. Bahamas Hai Goos Servies Primary Inome Current Transfers Current Aount Soure: Authors base on IMF ata

13 Current Aount (4) This simple analysis aims on ientifying the share of eah reor an ebtor omponent of the Current Aount. It gives the relative partiipation of eah of the omponents:!!!!!! "!!!!! $! # Aount the Current of res Composion of i CT I S G TC CT I S G R CT I S G S CT I S G G re þ ý ü î í ì ø ö ç è æ ø ö ç è æ ø ö ç è æ ø ö ç è æ = *100 ) ( *100 ) ( *100 ) ( *100 ) (!!!!!! "!!!!! $! # Aount the Current of ebs Composion of i CT I S G TC CT I S G R CT I S G S CT I S G G eb þ ý ü î í ì ø ö ç è æ ø ö ç è æ ø ö ç è æ ø ö ç è æ = *100 ) ( *100 ) ( *100 ) ( *100 ) ( where: / = Cres/Debs G&S = Goos an Servies Aount I = Inome CT = Current Transfers

14 Current Aount (5) Cres Jamaia Mexio Suriname Guyana Trinia an Tobago Goos 16.3% 86.2% 80.5% 59.1% 82.4% Servies 43.8% 5.7% 9.3% 7.2% 10.3% Primary Inome Current Transfers 4.2% 1.9% 1.2% 2.9% 5.3% 35.8% 6.3% 9.0% 30.8% 2.0% Debs Jamaia Mexio Suriname Guyana Trinia an Tobago Goos 55.9% 84.7% 63.3% 69.4% 75.0% Servies 28.8% 7.3% 26.5% 19.9% 17.6% Primary Inome Current Transfers Jamaia an selete partners Analysis of the Components of the Current Aount, 2016 (in million $USD) Soure: Authors base on IMF ata 12.1% 7.8% 7.0% 1.5% 6.3% 3.2% 0.2% 3.2% 9.1% 1.2%

15 Relative Posion of the Current Aount This is a measure of the magnue of the urrent surplus or efi in the GDP. In perios, where the eonomi yle is expansive an espeially for net-exporting ountries this iniator tens to be posive. RPCA = æ ç è BCA GDP ö *100 ø where: BCA GDP = Balane of the Current Aount of ountry i in the year t = Gross Domesti Prout (in Current Pries) of ountry i in the year t

16 Analysis: Relative Posion of the Current Aount Jamaia an selete partners Development of the Balane of the Current Aount, (in perentage of GDP) Soure: Authors base on UNCTAD ata Bahamas Dominian Republi Hai Jamaia

17 Purhasing Power of Exports an Effet of the Exhange Rate Ratio The first measure iniates the volume of importe prouts that oul be finane wh the ountry s exports. The seon iniator omplements the first one, an reports the loss or gain (in million $US) that the ountry s exports experiene ue to the Terms of Trae. PPX Xg& s * = TT EER = ç Xg & s * - Xg & s º PPX - Xg & s UVIX ö UVIM ø where: Xg&s = Exports of Goos an Servies in onstant pries = Country i in year t TT = Terms of Trae UVIX = Un Value Inex of exports UVIM= Un Value Inex of imports æ è

18 Analysis: Effet of Exhange Rate Jamaia, Trinia an Tobago, the Bahamas an Barbaos: Effet of the Exhange Rate, 2007 an 2015 (in million $US an inex numbers, 2007=100) 2007 X Current UVIX UVIM X Constant TT PPX EER Jamaia 5, , ,095 0 Trinia an Tobago 14, , ,252 0 Bahamas 3, , ,888 0 Barbaos 2, , , X Current UVIX UVIM X Constants TT PPX EER Jamaia 4, , , Trinia an Tobago 11, , ,574 7,790 Bahamas 3, , , Barbaos 1, , , Soure: ECLAC base on ata from UNCTADSTAT an WDI

19 Coverage of the Exports Measures the egree to whih the exports of goos an servies over the amount of total imports of a ountry in a given year. A value greater than 100 iniates that the exports over all of the imports of the ountry. In the oppose ase, a trae efi exists that nees to be finane. CXg & s = Xg Mg & & s s *100 where: = Country i in year t Xg&s = Exports of goos an servies Mg&s = Imports of goos an servies

20 Analysis: Coverage of the Exports 250 Jamaia, Trinia an Tobago, the Bahamas an Barbaos: Development of the Coverage of Exports, Jamaia Trinia an Tobago Bahamas Barbaos Soure: WDI

21 Openness Derive from the Current Aount an the GDP These are iniators that allow for the observation of the egree of internationalization of a partiular eonomy. They an be alulate wh respet to exports as well as imports an in net terms. Exports of goos an servies Imports of goos an servies Total trae of goos an servies Trae of goos an servies (2 n measure) Xg & s GDP Mg & s GDP Xg & s Mg GDP *100 *100 & s ( Xg & s Mg & s ) GDP *100 / 2 *100 where: = Country i in year t Xg&s = Exports of goos an servies Mg&s = Imports of goos an servies GDP = Current Gross Domesti Prout

22 Openness Derive from the Current Aount an the GDP 120 Jamaia: Different Measures of Openness, (in % of GDP) Exports of goos an servies Total trae of goos an servies Imports of goos an servies Trae of goos an servies (2n measure) Soure: CEPALSTAT

23 Coverage of the Servies in the Goos an Servies Aount This an be performe in two levels. The first are the servie exports relative to the total exports of goos an servies. Seon, the imports of servies an be alulate relative to the total exports of goos an servies. æ Xs ö æ Ms Coef Xs = ç *100 Coef Ms = ö ç * 100 & è Xg& s ø è Xg s ø where: = Country i in year t Xg&s = Exports of goos an servies Xs/Ms = Exports/Imports of Servies

24 Analysis: Coverage of the Servies in 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% the Aount Export of Servies in the Goos an Servies Aount, Antigua an Barbua Bahamas Barbaos Dominia Grenaa Hai Jamaia Montserrat Saint Kts an Nevis Saint Luia Saint Vinent an the Grenaines Trinia an Tobago Soure: UNCTADSTAT

25 Analysis: Coverage of the Servies in the Aount Import of Servies in the Goos an Servies Aount, Soure: UNCTADSTAT

26 Partiipation of Servies in the Worl Measures the partiipation of servies exporte by a ertain ountry in the total global imports. It an be alulate for a speifi setor or for the total set of servies: s n s s XS XS pxs = *100 pxs = * 100 s å s MS MS wt s= 1 wt where: = Country i in perio t s = speifi servie setor wt = the worl in perio t XS/MS = Exports/Imports of servies

27 Analysis: Partiipation of the Servies in the Worl 0.10 CARICOM: Perentage of total worl servies exports, (in %) Antigua an Barbua Bahamas Barbaos Belize Dominia Grenaa Guyana Hai Jamaia Montserrat Saint Kts an Nevis Saint Luia Saint Vinent an the Grenaines Suriname Trinia an Tobago Soure: ECLAC base on ata from UNCTADSTAT

28 Partiipation of the Servies an Competiveness Wh the former iniators, one an easily infer the evelopment of gains or suffere losses over time experiene by the servie market; whih in turn is s ompetiveness: s s D i = pxsi( t 1) pxs - pxs s where: = Country i in perio t s = Speifi setor of servies = Variation t1 = The following year wh respet to t

29 Analysis: Competiveness of the Servies in the Worl Selete Countries of the Caribbean: Competiveness of the Servies in the Worl, vs Transportation Travel Other Servies Jamaia Barbaos Bahamas Dominian Republi Soure: ECLAC base on ata from UNCTADSTAT

30 Contribution of Migrants Reflets the partiipation of the foreign urreny sent by resients that live abroa (through apal transfers or remtanes) in the national eonomy. It an be alulate as well over the GDP as well as over the Available Inome (unerstoo as omesti onsumption). CMGDP ( RM TM ) ö 100 æ = ç è GDP * ø CMGDP æ ö ç ç RM = *100 ç GDP - NFI $!! #!! " è AI ø where: = Country i in perio t K = Capal RM = Remtanes TM = Transfers of migrants GDP = Current Gross Domesti Prout NFI = Net Fator Inome AI = Available Inome 30

31 Analysis: Contribution of Migrants Selete Countries: Contribution of Migrants to GDP, (% of GDP) 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% El Salvaor Barbaos Dominian Republi Jamaia Niaragua Soure: IMF

32 Exerises How has the global ompetiveness of Jamaian servie ategories hange between 2005 an 2016? Fin the servie ategories wh the most posive an negative hange between the two perios. What was the ontribution of emigrants to Jamaia s eonomy in 2016? What was the loss or gain (in millions of US$) that Jamaia s exports experiene in 2016 ue to the Terms of Trae?

33