ECOWAS Executive Secretariat Statistical Programme

Transcription

1 COMMUNAUTE ECONOMIQUE DES ETATS DE L=AFRIQUE DE L=OUEST ECONOMIC COMMUNITY OF WEST AFRICAN STATES Launching meeting for the International Comparison Program for Africa Addis Ababa, 2-4 December ECOWAS Executive Secretariat Statistical Programme Executive Secretariat, Abuja November 2002

2 1. Context The ECOWAS Executive Secretariat statistical programme is aimed at supporting the integration process, placing it in line with the short and medium terms priority integration objectives. These objectives are mainly the following: Trade liberalisation and establishment of a Customs union Establishment of a monetary union (particularly through the multilateral surveillance mechanism of economic policies of Member States, adopted in 1999 by the ECOWAS Authorithy of Heads of State and Government More generally, identification, monitoring and evaluation of social and economic regional integration programmes. A large set of indicators on quite all social and economic statistical areas is therefore needed by the Executive Secretariat on Member States. The surveillance mechanism is an instrument for the monitoring and control of economic and financial policies, for the purposes of the monetary cooperation programme, and the creation of an enabling environment for regional integration. The mechanism is based on compliance with primary and secondary macroeconomic convergence criteria, as the guarantee of monetary stability for the creation of the ECOWAS second monetary zone (WAMZ), and the ECOWAS single monetary zone. Comparable economic data are essential for the evaluation of compliance with convergence criteria, in order to guarantee the credibility of the mechanism. It is therefore necessary to harmonise methods for the preparation of statistical aggregates (national accounts and consumer price indices), and the legal, accounting and statistical frameworks for public finance. Apart from the financial aggregates, GDP plays a prominent role in the definition of most convergence criteria. Furthermore, inflation rate (measured by the consumer price index) is one of the primary convergence criteria. A study on the conditions of consumer price indices and national accounts, conducted in 2001 by the Executive Secretariat with technical assistance from AFRISTAT, has shown important limitations on the comparability of these key indicators prepared by Member States. External trade also constitutes an important area, not only because vis-à-vis the fundamental Community goal relating to the trade liberalisation and the measurement of certain convergence criteria, but also for the financing of the activities carried out by the different institutions (through community levy). The statistical priorities are therefore derived as follows: S S S Establishing Harmonised data banks to facilitate monitoring of convergence criteria and economic and social evaluation of the surveillance mechanism; Improving the framework for the preparation of external trade statistics; Formulating a statistical development strategy. 2

3 In terms of activities, three topics are considered: Updating of information on Member States Harmonisation of statistical frameworks Statistical policy and cooperation. A biennial meeting of ECOWAS Directors of Statistics is held every other year to review the Community statistical programme. The last meeting was held in September 2002 in Lome. The main points discussed were the issues relating to the harmonisation of national accounts and consumer price indices, and to data collection and dissemination. The participation was extended to national experts, other ECOWAS institutions (ECOWAS Fund, WAMA) and to central banks. AFRISTAT participated at the meeting in its capacity as the consultant for the preparation of the status report on ECOWAS national accounts and consumer price indices conducted by the ECOWAS Executive Secretariat in The following institutions also participated in the meeting as observers: UEMOA Commission, West African Monetary Institution (WAMI), African Development Bank (ADB) and International labour Organisation (ILO). EUROSTAT was absent for reasons beyond their control. 1. Activities 2.1. Update of statistical information on Member States The Member States are the main source of the data used by the Executive Secretariat. The data collection strategy consists in appointing one consultant per Member State to complete the questionnaires, with the active collaboration of Heads of national statistics services. However, the objective pursued by the Executive Secretariat in paying honoraria to consultants is only to enable them cover expenses incurred during data collection exercise. These honoraria could not be therefore viewed as remuneration for completing the questionnaires. Data collected is processed and used as the base material for three publications: external trade, national accounts, and social and economic indicators. Since 2000, following a recommendation by ECOWAS Directors of Statistics, a summary of the data is also published in the ECOWAS Statistical Bulletin. The bulletin is conceived as a liaison and information network for the national statistics services, as well as a directory and a forum for the promotion of statistical research. In the short term, it is envisaged to build an appropriate database. This has not yet been the case because of lack of resources. The September 2002 meeting of ECOWAS Directors of Statistics in Lome also focused on issues relating to data collection and dissemination. The management of the data collection and dissemination process of the ECOWAS Executive Secretariat and the AFRISTAT experience in the compilation of regional data were presented. The meeting therefore recommended the strengthening of the capacity of the national statistics services for data dissemination (statistical yearbooks, data bases, internet sites, etc.). In addition to its own 3

4 resources, the Executive Secretariat is seeking for fund in that respect to enable it carry out this action, which is expected in the first stage to take the form of pilot activities on only a few countries Harmonisation des cadres statistiques External trade A substantial amount of work has already gone into the statistical and customs framework for external trade. However, this framework has to be updated and particular emphasis laid on quality of external trade statistics. This is one of the priorities of the ECOSTAT 1 project, financed by European Union. This project is expected to start before the end of Legal, accounting and statistical framework of public finance The harmonisation of legal, accounting and statistical framework of public finance is envisaged as part of a current EU-funded project on regional capacity building of the Executive Secretariat. But work has already started using the Secretariat s own resources. National accounts and consumer price indices Work has also started in two other crucial areas, namely national accounts and consumer price indices. It should be recalled that consumer price indices in UEMOA countries have been harmonised and that work is well advanced on the harmonisation of GDP calculation methods. The Executive Secretariat works in close collaboration with all actors involved in the ECOWAS statistical harmonisation process, mainly UEMOA, WAMA, WAMI, AFRISTAT, and central banks. The harmonisation strategy is a phased approach, taking account both of the urgency of issues relating to multilateral surveillance and the fact that full harmonisation will necessarily take some time. The main issue discussed by the meeting of ECOWAS Directors of Statistics in Lome was the harmonisation of national accounts and consumer price indices, because of the urgent needs for the functioning of the multilateral surveillance mechanism. A plan of action for the short and medium terms, and a timetable have been therefore prepared for each of these two areas, based on the orientations and recommendations of the study on the conditions of consumer price indices and national accounts conducted in 2001, and on the orientations of UEMOA in that regard. National accounts 1 a two-year project for a value of 1,950,000 euros. The project focuses on priority actions in relation to the surveillance mechanism (harmonisation of national accounts and consumer price indices, establishment of a data bank, improvement of external trade statistics quality) and on the formulation of a regional statistical development programme. To ensure more effective monitoring and implementation, it was agreed that the Directors of Statistics should be members of the project Monitoring Committee. It is envisaged that a subsequent phase of the project should be planned to consolidate the achievements of the current phase. 4

5 The objective of the plan of action is to provide ECOWAS with a series of comparable GDP for its Member States. Results expected are the following: i. Short-term actions include the adjustment of current GDP to harmonise both content and structure according to branches of activity and use headings, and alignment of compilation methods. Medium and long-term actions will focus on assisting Member States to implement the 1993 System of National Accounts (SNA 93). The necessary resources for the implementation of the short-term actions are: i. technical assistance to each Member State to transform the current GDP in the common platform adopted; i recruitment of national consultants for implementation at the national level; provision of necessary equipment to national statistics services (NSSs), giving preference to the least endowed. The project implementation budget will be up-dated by the ECOWAS Executive Secretariat. This should be done taking into account the need to provide sufficient incentives to officials in charge of national accounts and supply them with necessary computer equipment. The necessary resources for the implementation of the medium-term actions are: i i Contribution of NSS staff of the 15 Member States to the preparation of technical papers during the seminars and the compilation of the national accounts of each Member State using SNA 93; Supply of computer equipment, software and reproduction machines including photocopiers; Technical assistance for NSSs Consumer price indices The degree of comparability of current calculated consumer price indices in the ECOWAS Member States is insufficient for a reliable implementation of the multilateral surveillance. Consequently, the objective of the plan of action is to provide ECOWAS with accurate and harmonised indices for the monitoring of the monthly trend of consumer prices in each of the 15 Member States. The results expected from the plan, of which the specific activities are envisaged for shortterm (2 years), are the following: 5

6 $ adoption of a long-term harmonisation programme for consumer price indices; $ improvement of current calculated consumer price indices in 3 countries, namely, The Gambia, Liberia and Sierra Leone; $ presentation of consumer price indices for the 15 Member States, using a common classification. The following are the resources needed for the implementation of the plan of action: i i iv. Contribution of NSS staff of the 15 Member States to the preparation of technical papers during the seminars and the preparation of the presentation of the indices using the common classification; Contribution of NSS staff of The Gambia, Liberia and Sierra Leone to the improvement of their current indices; Supply of computer equipment, reproduction machines including photocopiers and other logistics for the compilation, printing and dissemination of technical documents for the 3 countries; Technical assistance for the preparation, organisation and facilitation of the seminars, and assistance to the NSSs of the 3 States for the improvement of their indices Statistical policy and cooperation The wide attendance of the last meeting of ECOWAS Directors of Statistics is a clear indication of the high degree of cooperation demonstrated by the Executive Secretariat in the implementation of its statistical programme. In this regard, it should be noted that the activities relating to the current revision of ILO Manual on consumer price indices and to the International Comparison Programme for Africa have been presented at the meeting by the representatives from ILO and ADB. The meeting took note of the revision of the ILO Manual and invited participants to comment on the draft proposals for revised international standards on CPI available at the addresses communicated to them. The ECOWAS Directors of Statistics also noted that the objectives and data needs of the ICP generally coincide with national and regional needs in the areas of national accounts, consumer and other price indices, and for the elaboration of other economic and social statistics. Consequently, they urged Member States to join the initiative. An active cooperation has also been established with the Paris21 Consortium for the organisation of two regional seminars for West Africa (in Dakar and Abuja) early 2003, and with IMF for activities relating to the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). 6

7 As regard the mobilisation of resources, a cooperation framework has been set up within the current EDF negotiations (European Union), while other bilateral (France) and multilateral (World Bank, particularly in the area of poverty reduction strategy) indicated their intention to assist. The Executive Secretariat have also undertaken the formulation of cooperation frameworks with certain renowned international statistical institutions. The Executive Secretariat is solemnly appealing to all development partners to support the regional integration process in West Africa, particularly the statistical programme. 7