Tracking Poverty-Related Spending

Transcription

1 Tracking Poverty-Related Spending Preliminary Assessment Results Bill Dorotinsky World Bank

2 Background Why a public expenditure needs assessment? JC request to help address Board concerns regarding: Safeguarding of HPC assistance Ensuring its use for intended purposes What was done? Joint Bank/Fund team initiated work in late-summer on: Conceptual issues Assessing capacity for tracking in 25 HPCs Developing a PEM assessment tool (36 questions) Applying tool in desk assessments with Bank-Fund country teams Summarizing and analyzing data

3 Assessment Topics Focus: Assess the capacity of a country to plan a program of spending, execute that plan, and report on results Budget Management Formulation Comprehensiveness: Can t plan or manage what you can t see or control Classification: Can t target management intervention to correct problems without knowing where and on what spending problems occur Projections: mportant planning tool, and need for HPC counterfactual Execution nternal Control: s spending actually guided by the plan? And, are spending reports reliable? Reconciliation: assuring the budget controls spending n-year reporting: timely, informative reporting in-year so Government can manage spending Final Audited Accounts: Reliability of reporting, assuring the budget controls spending

4 EXAMPLE OF COUNTRY TABLE ASSESSMENT Benchmark Results Results versus benchmark. BUDGET MANAGEMENT Formulation Execution COMPREHENSVENESS 1. Budget reporting follows GFS definition of consolidated general government. A C 2. Government activities are not funded through extrabudgetary sources to a significant degree. A A Meets 3. Budget outturn data (levels, functional allocation) are quite close to that of the original budget. B B Meets 4. Budget includes capital and current expenditure financed by donors. A B CLASSFCATON 5. Budget classified on an administrative, economic, functional basis. B B Meets 6. Poverty-related expenditure clearly identified in the budget. A A Meets PROJECTON 7. Multi-year expenditure projections integrated into the budget cycle. A C NTERNAL CONTROL 8. Stock of expenditure arrears less than X percent of total expenditure; little accumulation of A new arrears over past year. B 9. nternal audit is active. A A Meets 10. Tracking surveys supplement internal control. B B Meets RECONCLATON 11. Fiscal and banking reconciliation undertaken routinely. A B REPORTNG 12. nternal budget reports from line ministries/treasury received within four weeks of the end of B the relevant period. B Meets 13. Functional classification is reflected in the in-year budget reports. A A Meets FNAL AUDTED ACCOUNTS 14. Closure of the accounts occurs within two months after the end of the fiscal year. A B 15. Audited account presented to the legislature within 12 months of the end of the fiscal year. B B Meets

5 Description of Benchmarks Budget Management Benchmark Description Formulation Execution Comprehensiveness 1. Composition of the budget entity "Close-fit or better" to GFS definition of general government 2. Limitations to use of off-budget transactions Extra (or off) budget expenditure is not substantial 3. Reliability of budget as guide to outturn Level and composition of outturn is "quite close" to budget 4. Data on donor financing Both capital and current donor funded expenditures included Classification 5. Classification of budget transactions Functional and/or program information provided 6. dentification of poverty-reducing expenditure dentified through use of classification system (e.g., a virtual poverty fund) Projection 7. Quality of multi-y ear exp enditure p rojections Projections are integrated into budget formulation nternal Control 8. Level of p ay ment arrears Low-level of arrears accumulated 9. Quality of internal audit nternal audit function (whether effective or not) 10. Use of tracking surveys Tracking used on regular basis Reconciliation 11. Quality of fiscal/banking data reconciliation Reconciliation of fiscal and monetary data carried out on routine basis 12. Timeliness of internal budget reports M onthly expenditure reports provided within four weeks of end of month 13. Classification used for budget tracking Timely functional reporting derived from classification system Final Audited Accounts 14. Timeliness of accounts closure Accounts closed within two months of year end 15. Timeliness of final audited accounts Audited accounts p resented to legislature within one y ear

6 Need to Upgrade Systems for Tracking Poverty- Related Spending HPC Countries Little Upgrading Required Some Upgrading Required Substantial Upgrading Required Need for Upgrading

7 Relative Needs for Upgrading Budgetary Systems Percentage of Countries Requiring Substantial Upgrading Comprehensiveness nternal Control Classification Projection Reconciliation Final Audited Accounts Formulation Execution

8 Budget Formulation Comprehensiveness About half of the 25 HPCs have budgets that are broadly consistent with GFS Extra-budgetary spending is identified for over 40 percent of the HPCs Most HPCs have budget outturns considered quite close to their original budgets About 40 percent have sufficiently detailed data on donor-financed expenditures About 25 percent have significant spending through subnational governments. Classification Most have functional classifications sufficient to assess broad changes in expenditure Close to two-thirds plan to use a virtual poverty fund or other classification-based approach to monitor and track a particular set of programs and projects. Multi-year Projections Only 10 percent already have a Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) that is fully integrated into the budget process. May be less difficult to overcome these budget formulation problems through short-term assistance

9 Budget Execution nternal Control About two-thirds of HPCs do not currently have serious payment arrears problems. Expenditure tracking surveys have been recently introduced in about 15 percent of HPCs. About one-third of HPCs are reported to have active internal audit systems but a closer look suggests that for most, internal audit capacity was partial at best, and often ineffective. Reconciliation About 40 percent of the countries now undertake regular reconciliation between fiscal and monetary accounts. More difficult to address problems of internal control through shortterm assistance

10 Budget More than 20 percent of HPCs forward their annual accounts to external audit within six months of the end of the year But only about 15 percent have audited accounts forwarded to the legislature within twelve months of the end of the fiscal year. n some cases, the accounts are never closed and audited. About one-third of the HPCs close their books shortly after the end of the fiscal year. Final Audited Accounts Less than 20 percent of HPCs provide in-year tracking reports within two weeks of the endof-period, and two-thirds within two to four weeks. About two-thirds of HPCs surveyed provide a functional classification for the budget but 40 percent do not currently provide in-year tracking on a functional basis. Again difficult to tackle such problems through short-term action

11 Next Steps Board paper (February) Follow-up Finalize needs assessments with countries Link priorities with PRSPs Continue to address in-house issues of budget, staffing, and coordination mprove coordination of donor assistance Address broader issues: decentralization, impact evaluation