Virginia Local Fiscal Conditions 2018 Survey of Local Officials
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1 Virginia Local Fiscal Conditions 2018 Survey of Local Officials VML-VACo Finance Forum January 3, 2018
2 Virginia Local Fiscal Conditions Survey Conducted during November/December 2017 for presentation to the VML-VACo Finance Forum. Surveys were distributed to each Virginia City, County, and Town that has a professional manager. Responses were received from 82 localities: VML/VACo Finance 2
3 Virginia Local Fiscal Conditions Survey Modeled after the National League of Cities City Fiscal Conditions survey. Questions to be answered: 1. Where do Virginia localities stand today in terms of their overall fiscal condition? 2. Have they recovered from the Great Recession? 3. What local revenue & budget actions are planned this year and beyond? VML/VACo Finance 3
4 Positive Factors impacting local budgets The majority of local economies are growing, with healthy tax bases. Top Three Positive Factors identified by localities: VML/VACo Finance 4
5 Negative Factors impacting local budgets Major challenges include Infrastructure requirements, health benefit costs, and state mandates. Many localities are not sharing in the benefits of growing economies and tax bases. Top Three Negative Factors identified by localities: VML/VACo Finance 5
6 Local Revenues: Pre-recession and Now Virginia local government revenues exceed pre-recession levels but by relatively small amounts. Source: Auditor of Public Accounts VML/VACo Finance 6
7 Local Revenue Growth: Pre-recession and Now Revenue growth is markedly slower today than before the recession. Source: Auditor of Public Accounts VML/VACo Finance 7
8 Local Revenue Growth: Pre-recession and Now Survey respondents report slowing in revenue growth rates similar to statewide APA data. VML/VACo Finance 8
9 Local Revenue Growth: Outlook Survey respondents project even slower revenue growth in FY VML/VACo Finance 9
10 Real Estate Tax Revenues: Pre-recession and Now Virginia local government revenues exceed pre-recession levels but by relatively small amounts. Source: Auditor of Public Accounts VML/VACo Finance 10
11 Real Estate Tax Revenue Growth : Pre-recession and Now At the same time, revenue growth is markedly slower today than before the recession. Source: Auditor of Public Accounts VML/VACo Finance 11
12 Real Estate Tax Revenue Growth: Pre-recession and Now Again, survey respondents report slowing in revenue growth rates similar to statewide APA data. VML/VACo Finance 12
13 Real Estate Tax Revenue Growth: Outlook Survey respondents project still slower revenue growth in FY VML/VACo Finance 13
14 Debt Issuance for Capital Projects Debt issued per year is approaching pre-recession levels among survey respondents. $ Millions Source (FY 2007, FY 2016): Auditor of Public Accounts VML/VACo Finance 14
15 Outstanding Debt Total outstanding debt among survey respondents exceeds prerecession levels. $ Billions VML/VACo Finance 15
16 Local Revenue Actions Given slow revenue growth rates, one-fifth of localities are implementing fee, tax increases in FY FEES (22.0%) REAL ESTATE TAXES (17.1%) INCREASE PROPERTY TAXES (4.9%) DECREASE (2.4%) (1.2%) VML/VACo Finance 16
17 Local Budget Actions Few localities are scaling back work forces, and there are no clear trends with regard to government-wide budget actions. WORKFORCE (32.9%) GF BALANCE (24.4%) % WAGE INCREASE (22.0%) HEALTH BENEFITS (13.4%) RETIREE HEALTH BENEFITS INCREASE (3.7%) DECREASE (3.7%) (6.1%) (15.9%) (12.2%) (23.2%) VML/VACo Finance 17
18 Virginia Local Fiscal Conditions Survey: Conclusions Virginia local governments mirror the economy as a whole, with generally positive growth in tax bases but at rates slower than before the Great Recession. Large areas of the Commonwealth are not sharing in the benefits of a growing economy. There are no clear trends in terms of government-wide budget actions by local governments, possibly because of disparity between regions. The three major budgetary challenges facing local governments are Infrastructure Requirements, Health Benefit Costs, and State Mandates. Local governments appear to be in a vulnerable position were a recession to occur in the near future. VML/VACo Finance 18
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