How are we setting Mongolian long term development policy. Prime Minister s s Office Ulaanbaatar 2007

Transcription

1 How are we setting Mongolian long term development policy Prime Minister s s Office Ulaanbaatar 2007

2 CONTENTS 1. How are we setting Mongolian long term development policy 2. Midterm objectives of Mongolian national development strategy

3 Main target of the NDS The main purpose of the National development strategy is to estimate and determine the projections of Mongolian long term development policy. For instance: Economic development; Human development; Technical progress; Improving governance etc.

4 Priority objectives National development comprehensive policy includes approximately 120 priority objectives. Approximately 600 actions have to be taken in order to implement priority objectives until year If we separate it by each year and sector objectives must be implemented for each year and sector.

5 How is NDS reflected and estimated its policy harmonization Growth Over 600 actions to be implemented 2021 All this actions must be aimed at accelerating country economic growth. But some of them aimed for the medium term strategies like pensions and social welfare issues.

6 The specification of Mongolian s s mind-set There have global common understanding about concept of integrated policy or policy harmonization. However, according to us as Mongolians mind-set the concept of policy harmonization could be perceived as a bundle of arrows. In other words, depending on our values, tradition, development stage and our mind-set we may perceive some of the particular concepts such as comprehensive development policy from a different perspective.

7 Needs assessment to implement the comprehensive policy In order to implement NDS policy, its needs assessment has been estimated based on following two methods: Needs assessment estimation based on MDG s; Needs assessment estimation based on real sector development;

8 Needs assessment based on the implementation of MDG s First, we have determined the actions in order to implement MDG s in 2015; Secondly, we have estimated the needs assessment for those activities; To estimate these assessments UN s s specialists have provided assistance, and trained number of MOF staff with corresponding models and methods; It is estimated that the total of $US14 billion is required in order to implement MDG s within next 15 years.

9 Needs assessment estimation based on real sector development Industrial sector $US15.5 billion Energy sector Transportation sector Agriculture Environment Total source $US 1.7 billion $US 1.3 billion $US 3.5 billion $US 1.5 billion $US 21.8 billion

10 HEAVY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM OF MONGOLIA 1. MINING AND HEAVY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM PROJECT 2. INDUSRIAL CAPACITY IMPROVEMENT PROJECT 1.1. УУЛ УУРХАЙ- МЕТАЛЛУРГИ-ХҮНД ҮЙЛДВЭР ХӨГЖҮҮЛЭХ ДЭД ТӨСӨЛ УУЛ УУЛ УУРХАЙ-ХАР ХАР УУРХАЙ- МЕТАЛЛУРГИ- ӨНГӨТ ҮЙЛДВЭРЛЭЛ МЕТАЛЛУРГИ- ХӨГЖҮҮЛЭХ ҮЙЛДВЭРЛЭЛ НЭГЖ ХӨГЖҮҮЛЭХ ТӨСӨЛ НЭГЖ ТӨСӨЛ 1.2. УУЛ УУРХАЙ-НЭМҮҮ ӨРТӨГ ШИНГЭСЭН ҮЙЛДВЭРЛЭЛ ХӨГЖҮҮЛЭХ ДЭД ТӨСӨЛ ТАВАН ТОЛГОЙ НЭГЖ ТӨСӨЛ БАРИЛГЫН МАТЕРИАЛ НЭГЖ ТӨСӨЛ 2.1. УУЛ УУРХАЙ-ХҮНД ХҮНД ҮЙЛДВЭРҮҮДИЙГ ӨРГӨЖҮҮЛЭН ХӨГЖҮҮЛЭХ НЭГЖ ТӨСӨЛ 3. УУЛ УУРХАЙ-ХҮНД ХҮНД ҮЙЛДВЭРИЙГ ДАГАСАН ЖИЖИГ ДУНД ҮЙЛДВЭРИЙГ ХӨГЖҮҮЛЭХ ТӨСӨЛ

11 Needs assessment capital sources by Domestic Source: categories: Public sector source: Current expenditure up to 20 percent of GDP Investment expenditure percent of GDP Private investment External source: Public sector source Private investment

12 Need to attract foreign direct investment The role of FDI is vital where development objectives are aimed high, According to the development experience s of other countries, the FDI has played a crucial role for accelerating its development, Therefore, we will follow a policy to increase foreign direct investment by creating an investment favorable conditions.

13 To implement the comprehensive policy: To integrate and harmonize previously approved, currently effective medium term policy documents with NDS policy; To improve the capacity of civil servants; To assign development policy, planning and implementation tasks for corresponding organizations; To presume NDS policies as a base for political campaigns;

14 A condition for implementing a policy: In order to implement an approved NDS following conditions must be created: First of all, we must dispose the traditional and old thinking and start to perceive the issue from a different angle, To support private sector by promoting the public willingness to run their own businesses, To reduce the government intervention for the economy and to develop a private sector based economy, To constantly improve business favorable environment and investment climate.

15 The outcome of the NDS Assuming that we are able to create the above mentioned condition and solve all current issues and by implementing NDS policies in 2021 we can see the following some results: Population thousand Average life expectancy up to 72 Maternal mortality rate (per birth)-5 Infant mortality (every 1000) School enrollment percent Poverty below 10 percent GDP per capita approximately $US12.000

16 Preparation process is still going on Document of the NDS not yet finalized, process is going on. Draft of the NDS submitted to the President of Mongolia. Public and NGO s s actively participating and sending to Government they proposals of the national development policy. We re received several interesting proposals from National Democratic Students Union and proposals from Civil movement NGO s.

17 Two. Midterm objectives of Mongolian National development strategy (FY )

18 2.1. MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF COMING NEXT YEARS

19 1.1. Midterm objectives targeted to develop real sector GROWTH To commence to explore Ouytolgoi, Tavangoltoi and Tumurtei mines by private sector investment; To commence initial production of petroleum through distilling oil, processing brown coal; To construct power plants in Central region, to provide all soum centers, herder households with reliable source of energy; To develop irrigated agriculture, intensified livestock;

20 continued To found industrial parks for processing livestock products through attracting private investment To build infrastructure for exploration of mines, for instance, Ouy-Tolgoi Tolgoi, Tavan Tolgoi mines : To intensify road construction for connecting with Millennium Road and Asian Auto Road networks. : To renew auto roads crossed in Ulaanbaatar, to eliminate air pollution : To continue housing projects for population.

21 Estimated resources of some big mine Name of mine Kind of minerals Resource 1 Хуст уул Iron 4.4 сая.тн Fe 2 Цав Zinc, Platinum, 3.5 сая.тн хүдэр,, мян.тн Pt, мян.тн Zn 3. Баргилт Iron 31 сая.тн Fe 4. Төмөртэй Iron сая.тн Fe 5. Оюу толгой Copper, gold 24 сая.тн Cu, 720 тн Au 6 Цагаан суварга Copper, molybdenum сая.тн хүдэр,, 1.3 сая.тн Cu, 48.2 мян.тн Mo 7. Улаан Zinc, Platinum, 14.8 сая.тн хүдэр,, мян.тн Pt, мян.тн Zn 8. Мардай Uranium 1.0 mill.tonn хүдэр, тн U 9. Таван толгой Coal 7.0 сая.тн

22 1.2. Real sector development Real GDP growth (%) GDP per capita (thous. togrogs) GDP per capita (US$) CPI (12 month, end of period)

23 1.3. Social measures To enhance agricultural production, to supply population with pure water, to support irrigation work for grazing land; To improve an access to educational organizations, and condition to educate, to use more foreign aids to create professional training organizations; To improve nutrition of population, to intensify immunization, and to fight against HIV &AIDS, tuberculosis;

24 1.4. Public Finance (in percent of GDP) Total revenue Current revenue Total expenditure and net lending Capital expenditure Current expenditure Current budget balance Overall budget balance

25 2.2. Needs assessment and financing

26 Current expenditure* Current expenditure, potentiality, in billion togrogs Current expenditure, needed, in billion togrogs Current expenditure, potentiality, in billion togrogs Current expenditure, needed, in billion togrogs *- it based on needs assessment estimation by task forces of line ministries, adjusting by approximate index on wage, price increases

27 Capital expenditure Capital expenditure, potentiality Capital expenditure, needed Capital expenditure, potentiality Capital expenditure, needed *- it based on needs assessment estimation by task forces of line ministries, adjusting by approximate index on wage, price increases

28 Needs of the resources by kind of sources Priority/ by sequence Budget income, the ratio to be financed from concessional loan To be financed from foreign aids, assistance Ratio of private sector Education % 30.0% 10.00% Health % 30.0% 20.00% Income poverty % 50.0% 0.00% Malnutrition % 34.0% 32.00% Environment % 33.0% 34.00% Pure water, hygienic construction % 30.0% 20.00% Housing % 20.0% 20.00% Gender % 10.0% 10.00% Infrastructure 9 9.0% 5.0% 5.00%

29 continued Even though infrastructure development is important, the more emphasis is taken place on social sector, so there is a need to postpone its financing. To finance as if mentioned above, in Mongolia about $US250 million grant would be needed. It is important to finance investment, with optimal level of external and internal borrowing and not contradicting debt sustainability.

30 2.3. Policy consistency, directions to implement objectives, measures of nearer forthcoming years To amend some legal conditions that already reflected in NDS, To amend some needed changes in budget planning and coordination. To improve correlations between National Development Strategy and annual budget, To implement big projects that should be financed by private investment, To manage optimally current expenditure and to increase capital expenditure year to year,

31 Thank you for attention

32 Examples of some industrial centers ERDENET mining ERDMIN copper industry with chemical methodology Мolybdenum factory Plant for copper concentrate Copper melting industry Final production industry DARKHAN METALLURGY CENTER Iron ore industry Melting industry Medium size industry of final products OUY TOLGOI - TAVAN TOLGOI -TSAGAAN SUVRAGA Copper concentrate factory copper industry with chemical methodology Inreached coal factory High grade coal factory

33 Projections for developing Mongolian road network for years

34 Projections for preparing Mongolian regional energy network

35 Map of mineral resources of the Mongolia

36