Trade Implications of the EU-US TTIP for Neighboring Countries
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1 Trade Implications of the EU- TTIP for Neighboring Countries Alan V. Deardorff University of Michigan For presentation at Stanford February 20,
2 The Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) Currently being negotiated between the European Union and the United States Likely to include: Free trade agreement (FTA) Removal of behind the border barriers to trade and investment 2
3 3
4 My focus here: Trade effects on neighboring countries Many of these have FTAs with the EU and/or the How will TTIP enhance or undermine the benefits to them of these arrangements? 4
5 5
6 The neighbors are small, and most are very small They will matter little, economically to the EU and But they could be important politically 6
7 N. Amer 10% Barcelona Proc 4% E. Eur CEFTA 4% 0% EFTA 2% Figure 3 Shares of GDP (@PPP, 2012) for EU,, & Neighbor Groups EU 39% 41% 7
8 My Issue: How will TTIP affect the trade of its Neighbors? Why this is of interest: TTIP is large, both geographically and economically TTIP overlaps with NAFTA and other FTAs It s true (and important!) that TTIP will extend well beyond trade and trade barriers (tariffs & NTBs) to include many other issues Some trade related Some domestic 8
9 My Issue: How will TTIP affect the trade of its Neighbors? But I will focus on trade and on explicit trade barriers such as tariffs? Why? These are probably least important for the EU ad themselves, as their tariffs are already low But they are most important for the neighbors, who will be little affected by things like harmonization of regulations between EU and 9
10 Description of TTIP Outline Overlaps of TTIP with other FTAs Major trading partners of TTIP and its neighbors Effects of TTIP on neighbors by economy 10
11 TTIP Free Trade Area (FTA) Zero tariffs on all goods and services trade between EU and No change in tariffs on imports from outside; thus mostly unequal tariffs Rules of Origin (ROOs) 11
12 TTIP Areas that TTIP is set to cover market access for agricultural and industrial goods, government procurement, investment, energy and raw materials, regulatory issues, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, services, Most important for EU & 12
13 TTIP and more: intellectual property rights, sustainable development, small- and medium-sized enterprises, dispute settlement, competition, customs/trade facilitation, state-owned enterprises. 13
14 Overlap of TPP with AFTA and other FTAs TTIP overlap EU FTAs with EFTA (& European Economic Area on services) FTAs with members of the Barcelona Process (N. Africa & Middle East) Several FTAs with members of CEFTA (Central Europe Free Trade Area) NAFTA (North American Free Trade Area) FTAs with several (not all) of Barcelona Process 14
15 E = Economic Integration Agreement f = FTA C = Customs Union Figure 4: Existing FTAs & EIAs 15
16 Overlap of TTIP with other FTAs Messages: EU and are already heavily linked to their neighbors by existing FTAs: Most are both FTAs and Economic Integration Agreements (EIAs) on services. Of 26 countries and country groups that I ve selected as neighbors EU has FTA or EIA with all but 6 has FTA or EIA with
17 Overlap of TTIP with other FTAs The Message: TTIP should not be understood in the same way that both the original EU and NAFTA were understood, as arrangements among countries that had no other prior arrangements TTIP is integration between countries that are already heavily integrated with others 17
18 Trade Effects of TTIP I ll focus mainly on the largest trade flows Top-five partners for exports Top-five partners for imports 18
19 Exports from row to column Figure 5 Top Five Destinations for Exports for EU,, and Neighboring Economies 19
20 Imports to row from column Figure 6 Top Five Origins for Imports for EU,, and Neighboring Economies 20
21 Trade Effects of TTIP Three main effects Trade creation: Import from partner what was previously produced at home Trade diversion: Import from partner what was previously imported from 3 rd country Reversal of trade diversion: Import from new partner what had been diverted to partner in prior FTA ( trade un-diversion? trade reversion? counter trade diversion?) 21
22 Trade Effects of FTAs Trade Creation: Import from partner what you previously produced yourself Beneficial to partner, which exports Beneficial to importing country as a whole But harmful to import-competing industry in importing country 22
23 Trade Effects of FTAs Trade Diversion: Import from partner what you previously imported from an outside country Harmful to outside country Harmless to import-competing industry in importing country (there is none) Harmful to importing country as whole, as it pays more for imports Beneficial to the partner exporting country 23
24 B A D C
25 (Sample Countries) (EU) B () A D () C ()
26 Trade Diversion Hurts A Helps C Hurts B (!) B A D C
27 Trade Effects of FTAs Additional effect if a member already has an FTA with an outside country: Reversal of trade diversion: Imports that were diverted from the new partner by the 1 st FTA revert to the new partner with the 2 nd FTA This is a form of trade diversion Harmful to the country diverted from (which had benefited from 1 st FTA s trade diversion) But beneficial to the importing country it gets back to cheap imports 27
28 B A D C
29 Reversal of Trade Diversion Helps A Hurts C Helps B (TTIP) B A D More Trade Diversion Helps B Hurts A Hurts C (&D) C
30 Trade Effects of TTIP I now work through the trade effects on individual countries and groups of countries Discussion is based on the presence and absence of FTAs in Figure 4 covering the major trade flows indicated in Figures 5 &
31 EFTA Countries:,, EU Exports E e e e Imports M m m m FTAs E E E f f f f f E f f f f f f f f E EU Exports E e e e Imports M m m m m FTAs E E E f f f f f E f f f f f f f f E EU Exports E e e e Imports M m m m FTAs f E E f f f f f E f f f f f f f f E 31
32 EU Exports E e e e Imports M m m m FTAs E E E f f f f f E f f f f f f f f E EFTA Countries:,, (above) is typical These countries share an EIA among themselves and at least FTAs with the EU, but not with They have the EU as their major export destination and import origin They also trade significantly with the 32
33 EU Exports E e e e Imports M m m m FTAs E E E f f f f f E f f f f f f f f E EFTA Countries:,, They do not trade significantly with any of the other TTIP neighbors and do trade significantly with and, exports to and imports from 33
34 EU Exports E e e e Imports M m m m FTAs E E E f f f f f E f f f f f f f f E EFTA Countries:,, Their FTAs with the EU will have caused some trade diversion away from the. This will be reversed by TTIP That is economically beneficial for EU But painful for industries in EFTA that exported to EU only because of the trade preference vis a vis the They also suffer from conventional trade diversion: Their exports to must now compete with tariff-free exports of the EU 34
35 EU Exports E e e e Imports M m m m FTAs E E E f f f f f E f f f f f f f f E EFTA Countries:,, Conclusion: EFTA countries lose from TTIP 35
36 CEFTA Countries 5 of them have FTAs with the EU:, Bosnia & Herzegovina,,, 2 do not: I ll look at the two groups separately 36
37 CEFTA Countries:, Bosnia & Herzegovina,,, EU Exports E e e e e Imports M m m m m FTAs E f f f f f f f f f f Exports E e e e Imports M m m m FTAs f f f f f f f f Exports E e e e Imports M m m m m FTAs E f f f f f f f f f f f Exports E e e e Imports M m m m FTAs E f f f f f f f f f f E Exports E e e e e Imports M m m m FTAs E f f f f f f f f f f 37
38 EU Exports E e e e e Imports M m m m m FTAs E f f f f f f f f f f CEFTA Countries (5 of them):, Bosnia & Herzegovina,,, (above) is typical These countries share an FTA among themselves and at least FTAs with the EU, but not with They have the EU as their major export destination and import origin They do not trade significantly with the 38
39 EU Exports E e e e e Imports M m m m m FTAs E f f f f f f f f f f CEFTA Countries (5 of them):, Bosnia & Herzegovina,,, Some trade significantly with others in the group, as well as with. But they don t trade much with other TTIP neighbors. They do trade significantly with and some of them import significantly from 39
40 EU Exports E e e e e Imports M m m m m FTAs E f f f f f f f f f f CEFTA Countries (5 of them):, Bosnia & Herzegovina,,, Because of their FTAs with the EU and not with the, the effects of TTIP on them will be similar to those on the EFTA countries, discussed above. Conclusion: They will be hurt by TTIP 40
41 CEFTA Countries:, EU Exports Imports FTAs f f f f f f I don t have trade data for. EU Exports E e e e e Imports M m m m m FTAs f f f f f f f f 41
42 EU Exports E e e e e Imports M m m m m FTAs f f f f f f f f CEFTA Countries (2 of them):, (I don t have trade data for ) These two countries have FTA only with the other CEFTA countries, but not with EU or Their trade (at least that of ) is largest with the EU, but significant also with E. Europe and As complete outsiders of TTIP who depend greatly on trade with the EU, they will lose due to trade diversion. 42
43 Eastern Europe:,, EU Exports E e e Imports m m m M m FTAs f EU Exports E e Imports M m m m FTAs C f f f f f f f f f f f f f f f EU Exports e e e E Imports m m m M m FTAs E E E f f E 43
44 EU Exports E e e Imports m m m M m FTAs f Eastern Europe:, These two countries export significantly to the EU and import also from the. But their trade otherwise is with each other and with They are in hardly any FTAs As outsiders to TTIP with export interest in the EU, they will lose from trade diversion 44
45 EU Exports E e Imports M m m m FTAs C f f f f f f f f f f f f f f f is a very special case, as it has a customs union with the EU and therefore, of necessity, shares the EU s FTAs With its EU customs union, shares the EU s external tariffs, which presumably will include its zero tariffs on imports from the under TTIP But is not, currently, a party to the TTIP negotiations and therefore will not benefit from reduced tariffs on its exports 45
46 EU Exports E e Imports M m m m FTAs C f f f f f f f f f f f f f f f will Gain from reversal of its own trade diversion favoring the EU Lose from reversal of the EU s trade diversion favoring Since its exporters will continue to face tariffs, it will also lose from new trade diversion, as the buys from the EU instead of from Conclusion: is most likely to lose from TTIP It could gain if it were included as part of it. 46
47 Barcelona Process Countries: All have FTAs with the EU 5 have no trade agreement with the,,,, 3 do have either FTA or EIA with :,, (I m ignoring the West Bank & Gaza, for which I have no trade data) I ll look at the two groups separately 47
48 Barcelona Process Countries:,,,, EU Exports E e e e Imports M m m m FTAs f Exports E e e Imports M m m m m FTAs f f f f f f f f f f Exports e E Imports M m m m m FTAs f f f f f f f f f Exports E e e Imports M m m m m FTAs f f f f f f f Exports E e e e Imports M m m m m FTAs f f f f f f f f f f 48
49 EU Exports E e e Imports M m m m m FTAs f f f f f f f f f f,,,, (above) is somewhat representative of these 5 countries They have FTAs with the EU but not with the They trade most with the EU, but also significantly with the Like others considered above, they stand to lose from TTIP due to trade diversion 49
50 Barcelona Process Countries:,, EU Exports e E e e Imports M m m m m FTAs f f f f f f f f EU Exports e E e Imports M m m m FTAs f E f f f f f f f f f f EU Exports E e e e Imports M m m m FTAs f E f f f f f f f f f 50
51 EU Exports e E e e Imports M m m m m FTAs f f f f f f f f,, and These are unique among the countries considered so far, in that they have FTAs with both the EU and To the extent that their significant exports to both were diverted from direct EU- trade, this advantage will be lost with TTIP They stand to lose more than most 51
52 The NAFTA Countries EU Exports e E e e e Imports m M m m m FTAs E f f f f f E EU Exports e E e e Imports m M m m FTAs E E E E E f E E 52
53 EU Exports e E e e Imports m M m m FTAs E E E E E f E E and The only notable difference between these two is the absence of an FTA between the EU and, and this has now been announced Thus, like, etc. above, these countries have FTAs with both the EU and the, and they stand to lose when those gain equally preferential access to the other. 53
54 A Final Word on Rules of Origin FTAs (unlike customs unions) necessarily have rules of origin With a complex web of FTAs, expanding with TTIP, an important issue is cumulation of ROOs Do imported inputs from third countries count as originating within the FTA? 54
55 A Final Word on Rules of Origin The favors bilateral cumulation, under which the answer is NO. This limits the extent to which the FTA liberalizes trade, since much trade may still be subject to tariffs Worse, firms may switch to higher cost inputs within the FTA in order to qualify under the ROO This can mean that a web of FTAs can be worse than none 55
56 A Final Word on Rules of Origin The EU uses diagonal cumulation for the countries of the Barcelona Process. Thus products assembled in, say, with inputs from, say, will still qualify for tariff-free entry into the EU Were this extended to all of the EU and FTA partners, the effects of TTIP would be better all around. 56
57 Conclusion Trade effects of TTIP on the neighbor economies will be mostly that they lose from either New trade diversion, or Reversal of previous trade diversion that was in their favor 57
58 Appendix: Country Data 58
59 EU Exports EU E e e e e Imports EU m m m m M FTAs EU E E E f E f E E E f f f f f f f f f E E E 59
60 EU Exports e E e e e Imports m m m M m FTAs E f E E f E E E 60
61 EU Exports E e e e Imports M m m m FTAs E E E f f f f f E f f f f f f f f E 61
62 EU Exports E e e e Imports M m m m m FTAs E E E f f f f f E f f f f f f f f E 62
63 EU Exports E e e e Imports M m m m FTAs f E E f f f f f E f f f f f f f f E 63
64 EU Exports E e e e e Imports M m m m m FTAs E f f f f f f f f f f 64
65 EU Exports E e e e Imports M m m m FTAs f f f f f f f f Exports E e e e Imports M m m m FTAs f f f f f f f f 65
66 EU Exports Imports FTAs f f f f f f 66
67 EU Exports E e e e Imports M m m m m FTAs E f f f f f f f f f f f Exports E e e e Imports M m m m m FTAs E f f f f f f f f f f f 67
68 EU Exports E e e e e Imports M m m m m FTAs f f f f f f f f 68
69 EU Exports E e e e Imports M m m m FTAs E f f f f f f f f f f E Exports E e e e Imports M m m m FTAs E f f f f f f f f f f E 69
70 EU Exports E e e e e Imports M m m m FTAs E f f f f f f f f f f Exports E e e e e Imports M m m m FTAs E f f f f f f f f f f 70
71 EU Exports E e e Imports m m m M m FTAs f 71
72 EU Exports E e Imports M m m m FTAs C f f f f f f f f f f f f f f f 72
73 EU Exports e e e E Imports m m m M m FTAs E E E f f E 73
74 EU Exports E e e e Imports M m m m FTAs f 74
75 EU Exports E e e Imports M m m m m FTAs f f f f f f f f f f Exports E e e Imports M m m m m FTAs f f f f f f f f f f 75
76 EU Exports e E e e Imports M m m m m FTAs f f f f f f f f 76
77 EU Exports e E e Imports M m m m FTAs f E f f f f f f f f f f Exports e E e Imports M m m m FTAs f E f f f f f f f f f f 77
78 EU Exports e E Imports M m m m m FTAs f f f f f f f f f Exports e E Imports M m m m m FTAs f f f f f f f f f 78
79 EU Exports E e e e Imports M m m m FTAs f E f f f f f f f f f Exports E e e e Imports M m m m FTAs f E f f f f f f f f f 79
80 EU Exports Imports FTAs f f f f f 80
81 EU Exports E e e Imports M m m m m FTAs f f f f f f f Exports E e e Imports M m m m m FTAs f f f f f f f 81
82 EU Exports E e e e Imports M m m m m FTAs f f f f f f f f f f Exports E e e e Imports M m m m m FTAs f f f f f f f f f f 82
83 EU Exports e E e e e Imports m M m m m FTAs E f f f f f E 83
84 EU Exports e E e e Imports m M m m FTAs E E E E E f E E 84
85 EU Exports e E Imports m M FTAs E 85
86 EU Exports e E Imports m M FTAs E E E 86
87 87
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