CRITICAL REVIEW AND EVALUATION OF 2012 NATIONAL BUDGET. Akinlo, A. Enisan Department of Economics, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife

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1 CRITICAL REVIEW AND EVALUATION OF 2012 NATIONAL BUDGET Akinlo, A. Enisan Department of Economics, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife 1

2 1. Introduction It is quite a pleasure to me to accept the invitation to present a paper on the topic at stake. The critical review and evaluation of 2012 budget at this moment in time is very timely, given the vast controversies that trail the poor implementation of the 2012 budget and the current debate surrounding the 2013 budget that is right away due for implementation. Presently the country is in a valley of decision on either to continue the uncompleted projects of 2012 while the new projects in the 2013 budget are suspended or abandon the uncompleted projects of 2012 for proper execution of the programs and projects of the 2013 budget. This review exercise is necessary given the importance of budgeting and the budgetary process to national economic, socio-economic, and political development of our nation. Moreover, a review exercise of this type will shed light on the rights and wrongs that characterized the formulation and implementations of the 2012 budget, thereby helping the process and implementation of 2013 budget for better performance. To achieve this, we analyze revenue and expenditure projections in the 2012 budget, the composition of the expenditure and resources earmarked for key sectors of the economy and programs. Factors that are likely to impinge upon the capacity of the ministries, departments and agencies that are charged with the responsibility of implementing the programs and projects indicated in the budget shall also be taken into consideration. This paper will be divided into five subsections. The second section discusses the conceptual issues. The third section provides a brief overview of 2012 budget. The fourth section contains the evaluation of the budget. The last section provides the recommendations and conclusion. 2. Conceptual Issues What is Budget: a budget is a fiscal tool which the government uses to achieve various economic and socio-economic objectives. More precisely, a budget is a detail statement of proposed expenditure and anticipated receipts of the government for a particular period (usually a year) and is designed to achieve macroeconomic objectives of promoting economic growth, price stability and full employment of resources. Budget as a prime economic tool of countries, got it roles expanded as the purview of the economic system of countries expand due to the continuing new developments in the global system. Budget Process: at the national level, the budgeting process in Nigeria starts when the President presents a drafted copy of the budget to the legislative arms of the government. The draft of the budget send by the president is just a proposal. After the receipt of the draft copy of the budget by the joint session of the national assembly, a budget resolution will be passed in the two houses and commence the setting up of budget appropriation committees to review the budget. The House of Representatives and Senate will vote on appropriations bills and reconcile differences. 2

3 The appropriations bill goes to the President after the House and Senate pass it, the President signs each appropriations bill, and the budget becomes law. Appropriations Bills: it specifies how much money will go to different agencies and programs, but it is not a budget until the President signs it. Supplementary Appropriations: the national budget usually lasts for a year, in the course of which there could be unanticipated situations for which funding becomes inadequate due to unforeseen contingency, such as natural disasters or wars. In these cases the government has to allocate additional resources to meet up such challenges in a timely manner. This type of funding is allocated through legislation known as supplementary appropriations. Types of Budget: types of budget refer to the various ways in which the structural relationship between the anticipated revenues and the proposed expenditures of a budget can be conceived. For instance, when the anticipated revenue is more than the proposed expenditure stipulated in the budget, the government is running a budget surplus. In this case, public saving is positive. Budget deficit occurs when the proposed expenditure is more than the anticipated revenue (public saving is negative), while a balanced budget refers to a situation whereby the proposed expenditure and the anticipated revenue of a budget are equal (public saving is zero). However, a government can adopt any of these budget types to cater for the immediate needs of her citizenry and the future stability and survival of her economy. Put differently, budget types is not the basis for determining whether a budget is good or bad, rather the macro-economic environment in an economy often determines the type of budget that is appropriate for an economy at a given time. For instance, budget deficit is usually adopted during recession while budget surplus is commonly used when the economy is booming and there is the need to prevent it from overheating. The criteria for a good budget are different from types and method of budgeting. For instance Shields and Petrie (2010) put forward the following general criteria for a government s Citizens Budget. (i) (ii) (iii) It should be an objective and technical document, not a political piece of writing. It should be written with the needs of the general public in mind, using everyday language, and it should be linked to more detailed explanations to provide a simple access point to those who want to know more because budget is about the people and everything in the budget should be people oriented without any form of arbitrariness. Full use should be made of simple and effective tables, charts, and diagrams, such as a Budget at a Glance table showing revenue, spending, the budget balance, and public debt for the budget year and the previous two years, and their percentages of GDP; the distribution (and change in distribution) of spending by function, ministry, major program, or economic type; revenues by source; the 3

4 division of spending across levels of government; and per capita spending on the main social programs. By so doing, everybody will be fully aware about the budget and its content, and it will easy for the government to carry along every interested members of the community in the implementation process. Thus, ensuring transparency in the implementation of the budget. (iv) It should be a self-contained document, so that readers do not need to know the contents of other documents in order to make sense of it. (v) It should focus on the objectives and contents of the budget, not its process. (vi) It should meet a range of quality standards, including comprehensiveness, objectivity, relevance, reliability, ease of understanding, and timeliness. (vii) It should be disseminated at the same time that the government presents the annual budget to the legislature, so that the public is engaged in the discussion in time to have an impact on the legislature s deliberations on the budget. (viii) It should be actively and widely disseminated using a variety of media. In some countries this will require production of the guide in more than one language. Transparency in Budgeting: transparency is another pertinent issue in public budgeting as it enhances the performances of the fiscal activities of the government in no small measure. Transparency in government finances implies openness about policy intentions, formulation, and implementation (OECD 2002). Fiscal transparency is linked with better fiscal discipline, better credit ratings, and lower corruption. And it also entails bringing together evidence about the coverage, timeliness, and public availability of fiscal information at different stages of the budget process. However, IMF (2007) had identified some useful guides for transparency in countries that depend on natural resources for fiscal revenue like Nigeria. The guides are meant to apply to countries that are dependent on natural resources, regarding the National Budget Proposal, the guides indicate that: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) The budget framework should incorporate a clear policy statement on the rate of exploitation of natural resources and the management of resource revenues, referring to the government s overall fiscal and economic objectives, including long-term fiscal sustainability. Mechanisms for coordinating the operations of any funds established for resource revenue management with other fiscal activities should be clearly specified. The investment policies for assets accumulated through resource revenue savings should be clearly stated. All resource revenue-related transactions, including those through resource funds, should be clearly identified, described, and reported. Reports on government receipts of company resource revenue payments should be available. The (primary) fiscal balance not related to natural resources should be presented as an indicator of the macroeconomic impact and sustainability of fiscal policy, in addition to the overall balance and other relevant fiscal indicators. 4

5 (vii) Arrangements whereby international or national resource companies undertake social or environmental expenditures or provide subsidies to producers or consumers without explicit budget support should be clearly defined and described. (viii) Risks associated with resource revenue, particularly price risks and contingent liabilities, should be explicitly considered, and measures taken to address them should be explained and their performance should be monitored. 3. Review of the 2012 Budget 3.1 Presidential Speech The President presented the budget to a joint session of the National Assembly in Abuja, on Tuesday, 13 December It was indicated in the budget speech delivered by the President that the government was conscious of the continued uncertainties in the external environment, and the determination of the government to alleviate the effect of such uncertainties on the economy through necessary provisions in the budget. This implies that Nigerian should exercise less fear about the likelihood of the smooth implementation of the budget being disrupted by external shocks. However, the budget was variously called the stepping stone to transformation, budget of transformation agenda, and budget of fiscal consolidation, inclusive growth, and job creation. In my view, whether the theme of a budget is right or wrong is of less important. What I consider to be paramount in a budget are; the goals and objectives of the budget, how the goals and objectives set in the budget fit into the prevailing macro-economic environment in the economy, the feasibility of the goals and objectives of the budget in the context of the revenue allocation and expenditure proposals stipulated in the budget, the relevance of the goals and targets of the budget to the economic and socio-economic needs of the citizenry, and the appropriateness of the implementation strategies and machineries adopted in the budget, including the political will to ensure fiscal discipline and transparency in the implementation process. If all the foregoing issues are properly addressed in a budget, the concerned citizenry could be assured that the budget will deliver its promises. The 2012 budget as presented by the president is as follow; The 2012 budget was predicated on the following: Oil production of 2.48 million barrels per day (mbpd) up from 2.3mbpd for 2011; Benchmark oil price of US$70/barrel (a cautious revision from the US$75/barrel approved in the 2011 Amended Budget) Exchange rate of N155/US$; Projected GDP growth rate of 7.2%; and Projected inflation rate of 9.5%. Projected fiscal deficit of 2.77% of GDP (compared to 2.96% in 2011). 5

6 The objectives of the budget according to the budget speech delivered by the president were derived from the theme of the budget, which was; fiscal consolidation, inclusive growth and job creation. Fiscal consolidation is a term that is used to refer the formulation of strategies that are aimed at reducing deficits and accumulation of public debt. The policy frameworks adopted by the government in pursuant of those objectives, were anchored on four pillars, namely; (a) Macroeconomic Stability: according to the president, to achieve macro-economic stability the following measures would be put in place; prudent fiscal policy, manageable deficits, sustainable debt-gdp ratio of no more than 30%, and single digit inflation, with a view to promoting real growth, a stable and competitive exchange rate and help to reverse the declining trend of our international reserves. (b) Structural Reforms: the government promised to press forward with key structural reforms, which would involve the full implementation of the privatization of the power sector based on the Power Roadmap unveiled by the government in the previous year. The petroleum industry will also participate in the reform as the government was already preparing to bring the Petroleum Industry Bill debate to conclusion. (c) Governance and Institutions: the government wanted to promote transparency and accountability in the management of public funds and strengthen the anti-corruption agencies such as the EFCC and ICPC to enable them discharge their duties without let or hindrance. As the government acknowledged that none of the reform efforts will yield any enduring value if the level of corruption and other unguided practices are not brought under control. (d) Investing in Priority Sectors: the priority sectors through whom the government intended to achieve her objectives are; security, power, works, Education, Health, Agriculture, Water Resources, Petroleum Resources, Aviation, Transport, Lands & Housing, Science & Technology, Niger Delta, FCTA, and Communications 3.2 Expenditure, Revenue and Key Sectors Allocation Proposals in 2012 Budget Expenditure Proposal Table 1 and Figure 1 present the expenditure proposal for 2012 and 2011 budgets. The total budget for the year 2012 was trillion (an increase of 13.1% relative to the amount appropriated in 2011), while the capital and recurrent expenditures were 1.34 trillion and N3.357 trillion respectively. The balance was in debt servicing and statutory transfers. In this budget, the capital expenditure was relatively higher than the previous year with a percentage increase of 15%, but the capital expenditure accounted for 28.2% of the total budget. Recurrent expenditure was overwhelmingly higher than capital expenditure as usual, as the former accounted for over 70% of the total budget. This shows that the bulk of the proposed aggregate expenditure was gulfed by recurrent expenses of the government while the proposed capital expenditure was as low as 28.2% of the budget. This calls for concern and raise the issue of whether the budget of this kind will create jobs to the level of the pledge made by the government concerning job creation. 6

7 Table 1: Budget 2012: Expenditure Proposal Total Budget (Ntrillion) Debt service & statutory transfers(ntrillion) Recurrent Capital Year Expenditure(Ntrillion) Expenditure(Ntrillion) Sources: Federal Republic of Nigeria(2011) Appropriation Bill and Federal Republic of Nigeria Appropriation Bill(2012) Amount(Ntrillion) Total Budget Recurrent Expenditure Capital Expenditure Debt service & statutory transfers Figure. 1: Expenditure Proposal of 2011 and 2012 Budgets Sources: Federal Republic of Nigeria(2011) Appropriation Bill and Federal Republic of Nigeria Appropriation Bill(2012) Revenue Proposal The Gross federally collectible revenue is projected at N9.406trillion, of which the total revenue available for the Federal Government s Budget is estimated as N3.644 trillion. This implies that States and Local governments are expected to receive the balance. The anticipated 7

8 revenue of the budget accounts for 76.7% of the proposed expenditures. The revenue collectible by the Federal Government thus represented an increase of 9% over the estimate for Besides, it was also mentioned in the budget speech made by the president that the non-oil revenue was projected to grow significantly in 2012 as efforts were being made to reform the revenue collecting agencies and to implement some initiatives that will boost the revenue potentials of the non-oil sectors of the economy Allocations to some Key Sectors As earlier mentioned, the government prioritized some sectors of the economy in the budgetary allocations of the 2012 budget. The reason why the government planned to concentrate on those sectors in his budgetary plan was that, those sectors are sectors whose activities have direct impact on the goals and targets that the government wanted to use the budget to accomplish. Fig. 2 presents the sectors alongside their respective allocations Amount(Nbillion) Figure 2: Budget Allocations to Key Sectors Sources: 2012 Budget Speech and Appropriation Bill

9 As shown in Fig. 2, Security (N billion) had the highest allocation followed by education (N billion), health (N billion), works (N180.8 billion), and power (N billion). Agricultural sector had less than these five sectors in the budget, in spite of the fact that over 70% of Nigerian populace reside in the agricultural sector and the Federal Government was proposing that the sector will feed the nation and export excess produce to foreign counties in the nearest years. However, all those put together constituted the priority sectors and according to the budget speech of Mr. President, those sectors were prioritized in line with the theme of the budget which was given as fiscal consolidation, inclusive growth and job creation. When the President was presenting this budget proposal to the joint session of the National Assembly in Abuja, he assured the entire Nigerians that with this budget and the special considerations given to those priority sectors, the nation would record significant facelift in all those sectors, as it affect growth, job creation and fiscal consolidation. However, the breakdown of the allocations to these sectors is presented in Table 2 and fig. 3. The government promised to give those sectors special considerations and it did. But we might not stop there, if we really want to understand the ruses behind the whole drama. We could examine the capital and recurrent expenditures composition of the allocations to know how sincere the government was over all these promises and actions. Table 2: Breakdown of Budget Allocation to some Priority Areas Sector Capital Exp (Nbn) Recurrent Exp (Nbn) Total Exp (Nbn) Agriculture & Rural Dev Education Health Niger Delta Power Security Water Resources Works Total Sources: 2012 Budget Speech and Appropriation Bill

10 Amount(Nbillion) Capital Exp Recurrent Exp Total Exp 0 Fig. 3: Breakdown of Budget Allocations Priority Areas The breakdown of the allocations to some of the priority sectors of the economy are presented in Table 2 and Fig. 3. In total priority sectors allocation, recurrent expenditure accounted for 71%, while capital expenditures took just 29%. More specifically, the recurrent expenditure was higher than the capital expenditure in education, health, power, and security. Capital expenditures were significantly higher than recurrent in three sectors, namely; works, Niger Delta, and water resources. However, in the agricultural sector, the capital expenditure was marginally above the recurrent expenditures. And the recurrent expenditures are made of salaries, maintenances of equipment, allowances, impress, and other daily or frequent expenses, while the capital expenditures are basically meant for execution of projects and programs. 4. EVALUATION OF 2012 BUDGET The effective evaluation of this budget can be done by assessing the feasibility of the objectives laid down in the budget, given the structure of the resources allocation in the budget and by assessing the overall performance of the budget through its immediate impact on some key macro-economic variables of the economy. The objectives of the 2012 budget were; fiscal consolidation, inclusive growth and job creation. The economic situation in the country, which 10

11 the government promised to use the budget to proffer solution to, is another crucial issue that needs to be put into consideration in the evaluation of the budget. According to the USAID (2012) report on the Nigeria economic environment, the Nigeria economy had enjoyed relatively strong economic growth over the past seven years but poverty was still a major concern. The oil sector accounted for 95% of export earnings and 85% of government revenues while agriculture which employed 70% of the population accounted for only 2.6 percent of exports. Economic growth in Nigeria was constrained by inadequate infrastructure, electricity, incentives, and policies that promote private sector development, and poor access to quality education. In general, the objectives of the budget matched the economic situations in the country, such that the budget could have had significant positive impacts on the economy, if the structure of resources allocation in the budget and the implementation of projects and programs stipulated in the budget did not lack political will. Let us re-examine the resources allocation to some key sectors of the economy viz-a-viz the allocation to some political offices to justify the sincerity of the government over the objectives of the budget. Table 3: Resources Allocation to some Key Ministries Ministries Recurrent Exp. Capital Exp. Total Exp. Ministry of Youth and Development 71,275,480,142 4,800,000,000 76,075,840,142 Ministry of Agriculture 33,974,838,949 45,009,990,000 78,984,828,949 Ministry of Health 225,760,885,287 57,010,886, ,771,771,425 Ministry of Science and Technology 20,985,660,859 9,851,608,365 30,837,269,224 Ministry of Power 3,116,536,317 70,300,000,000 73,416,536,317 Ministry of Works 31,599,815, ,200,000, ,799,815,245 Ministry of Environment 13,689,594,307 6,404,342,340 20,093,936,648 Statutory Transfer 397,929,101, ,929,101,917 National Judiciary Council 85,000,000,000 85,000,000,000 National Assembly 150,000,000, ,000,000,000 Niger-Delta Dev. Com. 54,691,649,372 54,691,649,372 Universal Basic Edu. 68,237,452,545 68,237,452,545 INEC 40,000,000,000 40,000,000,000 Source: 2012 Budget Speech and Appropriation Bill

12 450,000,000, ,000,000, ,000,000, ,000,000, ,000,000, ,000,000, ,000,000, ,000,000,000 50,000,000,000 0 Recurrent Expenditures Capital Expenditures Total Expenditures Fig.4: Resources Allocations to some Key Ministries Table 3 and Fig.4 show resources allocation to some crucial sectors of the economy and some political offices. The overview of the Nigeria economic situation as presented above revealed that Nigeria is poverty stricken and about 70% of the over 160 million (approximately one-hundred and twelve million people) Nigerians resided in the agricultural sector. And that agricultural sector attracted a total allocation of seventy-eight billion (78,984,828,949), while statutory transfer of the National Assembly which was basically meant to take care of their recurrent expenditures was one hundred and fifty billion (150,000,000,000). The total capital expenditures for the health sector were fifty-seven billion (57,010,886,138), which was approximately one-third of the recurrent expenditures to the National Assembly and the statutory transfer to the National Judiciary Council was eighty-five billion (85,000,000,000), far and above the total allocation to the power sector. The major factor behind the poor level of productivity and the manufacturing activities in Nigeria is the poor power generation across the country, and the government could not afford more than seventy-three billion naira (73,416,536,317) to boost power supply that is so crucial to the economy, when the government could give out 150 billion naira to the National Assembly for recurrent expenditures. Apparently, this government was far from being sincere, because the resources allocations did not support the objectives highlighted in the budget and did not identify with the plights of the average Nigerians. However, the immediate impact of the budget on some key macro-economius to understand how effective the budget was while it was in variables of the economy will also help operation. The table below presented the summary analysis of some specific sectors between the last two quarters of year 2011 and the first two quarters of the year

13 Table 4: Growth rate for some selected sectors Sectoral Growth Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 (%) Agriculture Solid Mineral Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas Manufacturing Telecommunication & Post Finance & Insurance Wholesale and Retail Trade Building and Construction Hotel and Restaurants Real Estate Business and Other Services Real Growth (Quarterly & Annual) Non - Oil Growth Source: NBS Economic Outlook

14 Fig. 5: Growth rates of some selected sectors. sector The overall assessment of the 2012 budget is that the budget did not perform to expectation. As we could see from table 4 and fig.5, growth rates in many of the sectors dropped significantly in the first and second quarters of 2012 as compared the last two quarters in This is clearly an indication that the budget did not impact positively on these sector in the first two quarters of This is unexpected considering the long period of time it took the government to approve the budget. Besides, the reason why the 2012 budget failed like its predecessors was that many things in the budget followedd the traditional trend of budgeting in Nigeria. It can be deduced expressly from the budget speech delivered by Mr. President, that the budget was highly dependent on the oill sector as usual. In addition, 2012 budget was greater than the 2011 budget for noo other reason than the fact that, it has been habitual in budgeting in Nigeria that, a succeeding budget must be greater than the previous one. However, a budget that was called the stepping stone to transformation transformation, budget of transformation agenda, should have some elements of uniqueness in its formation, structure, and implementation. Moreover, this budget only presented the fiscal policy of the government without any glimpse of the monetary policy. A good budget should be able to furnish any of the concern citizens with detail information about the proposed economic activities of the government for the fiscal in view. Apparently, it is 14

15 impossible for the projects and programs contained in a budget of fiscal consolidation, inclusive growth, and job creation not to have monetary implications. In view of that, the government must have proposed to adopt certain monetary policies to cater for the monetary implications of budget. In which case, transparency requires that such policies should be made known, in order to carry the entire citizens along in the implementation and monitoring of the budget. Another vital issue that was missing in the budget was the removal of oil subsidy, which caused serious crisis at the beginning of the year. It is shocking that the national budget for the year was completely silent over such vital agenda of the government with its huge financial implications both in terms of the accruable revenue and the attendant expenses. 5. Recommendations On the preparation of the budget, the executive and the legislative arms of the government should make budget ready before the commencement of the fiscal year, in order for the implementations of the budget to commence in the first month of the budget year. For instance, the 2012 budget was finally approved by the National Assembly and signed by the president in April This is too unbecoming of any reasonable government, because the budget is the basic tool in the hand of the government through which it directs the economy and determine welfare of it citizens. Therefore, any government who does not lack political-will over its responsibility to its country will prioritize budget and other budgetary issues so as to make it available for implementation as at when due. The benchmark of the oil price should be fixed based on fair reasoning for the well-being of the nation s economy with a view to alleviate the suffering of the average Nigerians, rather than to enrich the purses of some few self-centered Nigerians. The benchmark is the oil price on which the budget is based and if the market price ends up higher, the excess will accrue to the Excess Crude Account and disbursed from there for specified projects. The government should take the full implementation of the programs and projects stipulated in a budget as a duty and not an option. As this will to reduce the accumulation of uncompleted projects in the country. In this 2013, some of the projects contained in the 2011 budget are yet to be completed, while the 2012 owns have piled up on them and now in the 2013 budget we are already envisaging new projects. This kind of scenario is just aiding corruption; no government can fight corruption successfully in this kind of porous and highly indiscipline system. Finally, the government should ensure that the objectives of the budget, revenue allocations, and the sources of income generation are properly aligned. For instance, in the 2012 budget the revenue allocations were in favour of the political office holders, while the government envisaged generating more tax revenue through some tax measures. The masses that were disfavoured in the revenue allocations received more burden of tax without compensation. 15

16 Whereas, the objective of the budget was to create jobs and there was no single project or program earmarked for direct job creation in the budget. Consequently, the 2012 budget came and gone without any significant impact on the economy but the politicians have gotten richer. Most of the projects that are yet to be executed will end up not seeing the light of any day. Therefore, this can be best title as the budget of the government by the government and for the government. References Shields, Jon and Murray Petrie. (2010). Producing a Citizens Guide to the Budget: Why, What and How? OECD Journal on Budgeting, Vol. 2010/2, forthcoming. NOG Intelligence (2012). Review The National Budget and the Oil Benchmark Debate Regulatory News, Issue 33 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (2002). OECD Best Practices for Budget Transparency. OECD Journal on Budgeting 1(3): International Monetary Fund, (2007b). Guide on Resource Revenue Transparency. Washington, D.C. USAID (2012), Report on Nigeria Economic Growth and Environment. USAID Privacy Policy USAID website US Embassy Nigeria Website 16