THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA

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1 THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA Assessment of the Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) Prepared by the staffs of the International Monetary Fund and the International Development Association 1 Approved by Carlo Cottarelli and Shigeo Kashiwagi (IMF) and Shigeo Katsu and Gobind Nankani (IDA) July 23, 2002 I. OVERVIEW 1. The Poverty Reduction Strategy process was formally launched in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) in late April 2001 by the Authorities in the constituent Republics of Serbia and Montenegro under the auspices of the federal government. 2 This Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (I-PRSP) was initiated at the end of April, 2002, and was prepared over a six-week period. Despite the short time since inception, the federal and republican Authorities have provided a satisfactory baseline assessment and set in place appropriate organizational and institutional arrangements for the development of a participatory full Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) over the coming year. The interim Strategies for both republics have benefited from initial consultations with stakeholders and international partners. The FRY I-PRSP has three components: strategic blueprints for developing full PRSPs in the republics of Serbia and Montenegro, and a strategic Overview prepared by the federal authorities. The I-PRSP builds upon the 1 Henceforth referred to as staffs. 2 The PRSP process is being undertaken during a period of political change in FRY. On March 14, 2002 an agreement entitled Proceeding Points for the Restructuring of Relations between Serbia and Montenegro was signed by representatives of the federal government and the Republics of Serbia and Montenegro. This agreement sets out a general framework for establishing a union of Serbia and Montenegro which would replace the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. A Constitutional Commission is currently preparing a Charter which would define operational principles of the union. Under the provisions of the Agreement, Serbia and Montenegro would retain some common institutions, including a Presidency, a Parliament, and a Council of Ministers, but would operate as two separate economies, including separate currencies and customs systems, but with free trade between the republics.

2 - 2 - framework established in the FRY Economic Reconstruction and Transition Program (ERTP) of 2001.The major strengths of this document are: (i) a detailed and candid discussion of each republic s poverty situation based on existing data; (ii) a detailed descriptions of existing programs and policies; (iii) a clear discussion of available data and identification of limitations; (iv) a sound contextual framework and organizational arrangements for realizing participatory strategies in both republics; and (v) a recognition of the need to set appropriate goals, prioritize, and achieve balance between short and longer term objectives and actions in the development of the full PRSP. Serbia s I-PRSP is particularly effective in its recognition of the social impact of reforms and the need for ensuring fiscal sustainability. The Montenegro s I-PRSP provides a succinct discussion of the key elements of the proposed strategy. 2. Looking forward, the staffs strongly encourage the Authorities when preparing the full PRSP to: improve, harmonize and institutionalize poverty survey instruments, and enhance capacity for analysis; ensure that it is based on an effective system to monitor progress and track improvements; identify appropriate benchmark indicators and establish linkages to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals; ensure that any reallocations of resources within and across sectors maintain consistency with the medium term macroeconomic framework that is supported by an arrangement under the IMF's Extended Fund Facility (EFF); identify, prioritize and cost strategic public policies and programs designed to have the greatest impact on poverty reduction, consistent with existing institutional and financial constraints; within the fiscal envelope, elaborate plans for: improving the overall business environment; achieving the un-impeded operation of a common internal market; addressing critical infrastructure and utility investment and maintenance needs; and improving public administration, governance, and health and education service delivery. 3. In Serbia, the Authorities should be encouraged to take greater account of regional differences, address targeting, affordability and equity in social protection programs, enhance the treatment of governance issues, and establish plans for implementing anti-corruption programs, more explicitly. The Authorities' vision of a large and growing role for the public sector in redressing the impact of reforms will need to be assessed in light of its fiscal implications. In Montenegro, the Authorities would be advised to take a broader multisectoral approach and to consider incorporating such areas as environment, tourism development, governance and infrastructure into the strategy. Plans in each of the areas need to be more fully articulated. In both republics, as the Authorities appropriately propose, the full PRSP should detail the poverty and social impact of labor redeployment and identify appropriate mitigation measures.

3 - 3 - II. POVERTY DIAGNOSIS 4. Adequacy of Diagnostics. The Serbian and Montenegrin I-PRSPs provide accurate and detailed analysis of the poverty situations in the republics based on the data available. The documents also accurately acknowledge data limitations, which are specific to each republic. Existing data on both republics is inadequate to provide a good baseline for tracing the evolution of poverty and its correlates over time, because of inadequate measurement of consumption, and insufficient information on gender, ethnic or regional disparities and labor market linkages. 5. Establishing a Poverty Baseline. The I-PRSP recognizes the need to improve poverty diagnostics, and work is in progress in both republics to develop an adequate poverty baseline for the full PRSP. In Serbia, the authorities plan to augment the ongoing Household Budget Survey (HBS) and improve inadequate welfare measurement, population coverage and definition of the poverty line by completing a special Household Poverty Survey (HPS) and a series of focused surveys targeted at specific groups. The staffs believe that the implementation of the HPS will produce sufficient data to establish adequate baseline information on poverty to support the PRSP. The Bank is providing technical and financial support for this effort and discussions are underway with a number of bilateral and multilateral donors (UN-OCHA, UNICEF, UNDP, DFID, Eurostat) for further support. In Montenegro, the I-PRSP indicates that poverty data collection will be improved in the near term through the introduction of a household survey. Although not mentioned in the I-PRSP, ongoing surveys supported by the European Commission's Food Security Program (FSP) now include detailed blocks on household consumption and are producing more accurate data, and the staffs believe that these data are best suited to develop a poverty baseline. The World Bank and other donors (UNDP, EC, and UN-OCHA) are providing technical assistance in the analysis of data collected by the FSP survey aiming at establishing a robust and reliable poverty profile and poverty line. 6. Data Accessibility. Household survey data are currently not available to users except on a ad hoc basis, thereby limiting their use for policy analysis, including within government. However, there is an understanding that data currently being collected will be made publicly available in both republics. In particular, the Bank will provide continued support to data collection through household surveys on the understanding that those data sets will be publicly accessible. 7. Institutionalizing Poverty Monitoring. A key challenge throughout the PRSP process will be for both Republics to institutionalize their statistical functions, for general economic statistics, labor force monitoring, and more specific poverty monitoring. In this regard, the staffs believe that proposed measures to augment knowledge on poverty as detailed in the I-PRSP will result in an adequate poverty baseline, but there is a clear need to define and develop the tools that will be used to provide ongoing monitoring and evaluation, and the institutions that will implement them. Collection and analysis of the poverty data should be organized and institutionalized as a core public function, budgeted appropriately with regular government resources, and incorporated in policy formulation processes. Surveys and analyses by non-government institutions, such as those currently conducted by various

4 - 4 - institutes, are very helpful in providing necessary information in the near term but will need to be incorporated into an appropriate institutional framework for poverty monitoring. 8. In addition to improving survey-based data, it will also be critical to improve administrative data within key programs directly impacting the welfare of the poor including social and child protection and unemployment programs in order to ensure that consistent and up-to-date information on targeted vulnerable groups is available to those implementing poverty-related programs. 9. Capacity Building and Donor Support. Substantial technical assistance and capacitybuilding efforts during the PRSP preparation period and beyond will be required to ensure that the poverty surveys are well supported and institutionalized and that a consistent monitoring framework is in place. While new needs may emerge, current priority technical assistance needs are being provided by the international community. The Bank, together with other donors (notably DFID and EU) is developing a capacity building training program in Serbia and Montenegro. Through the WBI a number of PRSP seminars and workshops will be offered that should contribute to capacity development. An IMF multisector statistics mission is working with the authorities to review statistical practices and serve as a basis for further technical assistance. 10. Outcome Benchmarks. The setting of achievable and measurable outcome benchmarks is fundamentally important for the PRSP process, and does not receive adequate attention in the paper. This will be a key challenge as the full PRSP is developed, complicated by the current lack of an established system for monitoring poverty and mechanisms to feed such monitoring into policy formulation. The lack of recent trend information will further complicate the task of defining outcome benchmarks that are achievable. Staffs recommend that the governments align outcome benchmarks with the Millennium Development Goals as a means to facilitate international comparisons. III. POLICY AGENDA 11. The staffs commend the strong emphasis in the I-PRSP on an appropriate macroeconomic framework as a prerequisite for sustained poverty reduction, and hence as an integral part of a full PRSP. The authorities macroeconomic framework for , which is supported by a three-year arrangement under the IMF s Extended Fund Facility, is appropriately ambitious and supports the authorities poverty reduction goals. The framework is consistent with lowering inflation, restoring external viability, and creating the conditions for sustainable growth. As correctly noted in the paper, a key component of the macroeconomic strategy is strong fiscal adjustment, accompanied by further improvements in tax administration, public expenditure reform, and reorientation of spending toward investment to help rebuild critical physical and institutional infrastructure. This will be supported by prudent monetary and exchange rate policies in the case of Serbia, and by adherence to the existing monetary and exchange regime in Montenegro. The staffs recommend that the full PRSP provide a more detailed analysis of the social impact of macroeconomic policies and external shocks. For example, it would be useful to provide an analysis of the impact of Montenegro s decision to adopt the euro as its sole legal tender.

5 The staffs note that the full PRSP will only be credible if the proposed sectoral policies and programs are fully consistent with the agreed macroeconomic framework. Achieving this objective will require strict policy implementation. Making room for a lower deficit, renewed servicing of FRY s large external debt, higher capital spending, and one-off transition-related costs, will require a reduction in current spending in relation to GDP and an improvement in revenue collection, including through tax administration reform. For this reason, the envisaged poverty reduction program will need to be accompanied by an expenditure reform involving a major overhaul of subsidies, the civil service, healthcare, pensions, and other social benefits. The development of this program will require a realistic costing of proposed policy reforms and initiatives and explicit discussion of intra-sectoral and cross-sectoral trade-offs, followed by the clear prioritization of expenditures within a formal budget preparation process linked to an appropriate macro-fiscal framework. Any attempt to implement the various potentially costly policy options and programs outlined in the I-PRSP in their entirety would be inconsistent with this framework. It will also be important to maintain wage discipline in the economy in particular in the public sector which provides a signal to the rest of the economy as a means of lowering inflation and protecting external cost competitiveness. 13. In addition, the authorities policy efforts will require, and deserve, the continued support of the international community. The medium-term macroeconomic framework relies heavily on foreign financing to support reforms and pay for much-needed public investments. However, the projected foreign financing, while in line with preliminary donor indications in June 2001, has not been pledged yet, pointing to important risks to the strategy in the event this foreign financing does not fully materialize. In order to minimize risks over the medium term, it is critical that the authorities follow prudent debt management policies and rely largely on concessional sources of external financing. 14. The I-PRSP clearly recognizes that an effective strategy for fighting poverty requires a multi-sectoral approach. The staffs find that the papers effectively cover past and recent outcomes and current policies in a range of sectors. However, some obvious omissions are noted in both republican papers, notably with respect to improvements in the business environment, governance, public administration, and rural sector prospects. In preparing the full PRSP, both republics should strive to achieve an appropriate balance between policy reform and investments designed to promote growth and measures to mitigate the direct impacts of reform on poverty in the near term. The staffs also encourage both republics to expand the discussion of the MDGs in the full PRSPs, particularly in motivating proposed policies and programs. 15. The staffs commend the recognition in the I-PRSP of the role of growth and economic development in a poverty reduction strategy. They also welcome the recognition in both republics I-PRSPs of the role of the private and financial sectors in the promotion of growth and employment creation. The government and the donor community have necessarily focused on privatization, enterprise and bank restructuring, and labor market reform as urgent priorities. Thus the staffs find the relatively lengthy discussion of those themes in the I-PRSP (including descriptions of successes) appropriate. However, without further reforms to build on recent progress, constraints to growth of the private sector are

6 - 6 - likely to limit future poverty reduction. The overall business environment, including the facilitation of external and domestic trade, improvement of corporate governance, control of corruption, and legal and judicial reform are emerging as policy priorities, which are likely to have a significant impact on growth, employment and poverty in the long term. The full PRSP should underscore the importance of the un-impeded operation of a common internal market, and further progress towards regional integration, for growth. 16. Reforms in the financial sector will now need to shift towards strengthening the framework for banking regulation and supervision, and to the development of nonbank financial intermediation. The resulting improved access to credit can support private sectorled growth. Placing the reform of the existing payments system on a fiscally and institutionally sustainable path is another emerging policy and reform challenge. During preparation of the PRSP, the role of the private and financial sectors in achieving sustained reductions in poverty will need to be broadly debated, progress to date assessed, and more specific programs elaborated. The potential role for micro-credit in poverty alleviation should be fully discussed, and integrated as appropriate into the financial sector framework. 17. The staffs note the particular focus on reducing the gray economy in the I-PRSP, and welcome the treatment of this phenomenon as a central issue in the poverty reduction agenda. The I-PRSP underscores the seriousness of the problem, particularly in developing sustainable growth, improving public revenue collection and bringing vulnerable groups back into the social safety net. However, the staffs note that the proposed approaches may focus unduly on punitive measures. An effective strategy will need to give more consideration to incentives and be linked with the broader business environment. 18. Lack of investment in infrastructure and utilities has become an obvious impediment to the delivery of (and access to) services such as water, sanitation, health, education, and electricity. It is thus a key barrier to poverty alleviation in both republics. The need for investment will also have direct and hidden macro-fiscal implications. The full PRSPs will need to clearly elaborate the role of these sectors in growth promotion, including discussion of the role of policy and the regulatory framework in attracting increased private participation. Care should be taken to promote active involvement of key ministries and stakeholders in these sectors in the overall PRSP effort. 19. Social Protection. The staffs commend the authorities for the initiation of bold pension reforms in Serbia in late 2001, and more recently in Montenegro. Both republics have also taken important initial steps to improve the targeting of the social safety net, and to attract interim donor support for fiscally sustainable social programs. Nonetheless, reforms in these areas, which feature prominently in the I-PRSP, remain at an early stage. The staffs encourage an extensive treatment of three poverty issues in the full PRSP: (i) the constraints which the existing pension systems place on sustained poverty reduction, and the ways in which further reforms can improve their immediate and longer-term poverty impact; (ii) an analysis of affordability, incentive and equity issues in current social assistance programs (including state support for severance packages for employees of restructured enterprises), followed by proposals to improve their design, scope and targeting; and (iii) the effectiveness

7 - 7 - and affordability of current and proposed programs to assist internally displaced persons (IDPs), refugees and other target groups. 20. Education and Health. The I-PRSP provides an accurate description of recent trends in the education and health systems, and points out the need for their major overhaul to improve sectoral efficiency and intra-sectoral resource allocation. The Serbian I-PRSP provides a detailed discussion of current reform priorities in these areas. As noted above, this should not preempt a full discussion of priorities and options during preparation of the full PRSP. Serbia has just launched a primary education reform with donor support and is about to embark on a major health system restructuring. The full PRSP should address improvements to the system for monitoring outcomes as a key to improving education, including through informing decisions about decentralization and resource allocation across regions. Developing appropriate strategies for vocational and skills training will also require considerable thinking over the coming year. In Serbia, it will be necessary to think beyond the traditional view of health as simply provision of services. There are likely to be significant transitional issues such as the cost of labor adjustment as service delivery is reformed and steps are taken to combat corruption in the procurement of pharmaceuticals and supplies. 21. In Montenegro, the I-PRSP provides limited discussion of future reform priorities, leaving room for their more full elaboration through the PRSP process. The current levels of education spending (about the highest ratio to GDP in Europe) suggest that the focus of the full PRSP could be on strategic initiatives to improve the efficiency of current spending. The full PRSP could also benefit from a discussion of how to improve the quality of education, especially for the poor. A master planning exercise in the health sector will be needed in order to properly prioritize expenditures in the context of the PRSP. 22. The full PRSP will need to outline plans for addressing HIV/AIDS more clearly (Serbia has recently begun to develop a participatory national strategy and Montenegro has indicated that it will also soon do so). While current HIV/AIDS incidence is low, FRY shares some characteristics with other countries of the region, which have led to rapid increases in incidence (poverty, unemployment, increasing drug usage, commercial sex activity etc.). 23. Environmental protection is a critical area which will require more detailed coverage in the full PRSP, particularly in Montenegro. Work on a National Environmental Action Plan for FRY is expected to start over the coming year. The full PRSP should take the preliminary NEAP findings into account as available, in refining an environmental management agenda. 24. Gender equality promotes sustainable development. While the analyses of poverty do address its gender dimension to some degree, there is little discussion in the I-PRSP of the way in which gender issues have been or can be integrated into the design of a poverty alleviation strategy. As the gender-related data collection improves, the full PRSP should use this data to provide additional detail on the measures required to deepen the economic and social participation of women.

8 The lack of institutional and administrative capacity is often cited as a constraint to poverty alleviation in FRY, particularly in the smaller Republic of Montenegro, as it reduces the efficiency of budget management and public services. The staffs would have liked to see greater emphasis on these important constraints to development. Building capacity will require fiscal resources and a time-consuming administrative reform. The full PRSP should provide additional discussion of the challenges expected in building the institutions of government and implementing the PRSP program, in line with available levels of fiscal resources and implementation capacity. IV. CONSULTATION AND PARTICIPATION 26. Both republics have laid out sound framework for facilitating broad-based consultation and developing participatory PRSPs. In Serbia, an extensive structure has been defined to allow open and flexible communication between republican and local levels and among all stakeholders. Five committees (parliamentarians, local government officials, ministerial officials, civil society, and international development partners) have been established to represent varied points of view and to advise and consult with the republican level PRSP Advisory Board. A variety of other inter- and intra-sectoral linkages and mechanisms for consultation and public dialogue and dissemination are also under consideration. The NGO community has been interested and active in the initiation of the process and donors have also been invited to be full partners in the process. A number of donors are already involved in supporting poverty monitoring and analysis and have expressed interest in deepening their involvement and better coordinating analytical work to support the process. The staffs consider the consultative and participatory arrangements set forth by the Serbian Authorities commendable, albeit complex and ambitious to implement. Care will need to be taken to manage expectations and ensure understanding of fiscal realities and tradeoffs among stakeholders as the process evolves. 27. In Montenegro, the arrangements for participatory interaction are more streamlined. Representatives of civil society, NGOs, the business community, local specialists, and government officials have been organized in six thematic Working Groups. The Groups will report to a Civil Society Forum for Poverty Reduction which will, in turn, report findings to the government. These findings will serve as the foundation for the full Poverty Reduction Strategy. NGOs and donors have been included in the initiation of the process. Preliminary expressions of interest indicate favorable prospects for broad-based interactions with civil society in the further development of a full PRSP. The staffs consider the organizational and participatory arrangements in Montenegro for developing the full PRSP to be satisfactory and achievable, but note that the Authorities may find that a more iterative process of public dialogue and consultation will be required as the Strategy takes shape. As in Serbia, due caution must be exercised to promote effective public dialogue and to avoid raising undue expectations. UNDP, together with NGOs, is facilitating the civil society consultation in Serbia and Montenegro. Both republics expect to apply for funding from the Bankadministered multi-donor trust fund to support the participatory process over the coming year.

9 - 9 - V. PREPARATION FOR A FULL PRSP 28. The Authorities envisage that a full PRSP would be completed in June Paragraph 3 summarizes the areas that must be addressed over the coming year. Appropriate organizational arrangements have been put in place in both republics, and responsibilities have been allocated. Both republics have outlined sequenced actions necessary to achieve this timetable with priority attention to improving poverty data collection and analysis, defining benchmarks and developing monitoring and evaluation systems, and initiating a program of capacity building. While some initial steps have been taken, the authorities in both republics should take a more pro-active role in identifying resource and skill mix needs, and coordinating donor analytical and technical support to the process. The staffs consider the proposed critical path and timetable toward the full PRSP to be quite ambitious, but achievable with intensive sustained efforts and continued donor support. In the Montenegro case, the authorities may need to reconsider some of the interim deadlines which appear somewhat optimistic. VI. RISKS 29. There are several risks that could compromise the successful completion of the full PRSP in FRY: Economic and Political Context. The PRSP process is taking place during a period of political change and economic uncertainty. Serbia and Montenegro are engaged in the difficult process of redefining the constitutional structure of the common state. The political agenda is full: once the new constitutional charter is drafted and ratified by the three parliaments, various elections at the union and republican levels are expected to be held. Subsequently, republican laws will need to be adjusted to the new union structure. Despite impressive reform efforts and substantial donor funding over the last eighteen months, economic recovery remains highly vulnerable to negative external shocks. Stagnation of economic recovery could lessen public support for the reform program and complicate completion of the PRSP. While it is not expected that the commitment of the authorities to poverty reduction and the elaboration of the PRSP will be affected, the extensive political agenda and legislative change ahead and the difficult economic situation could distract the attention of key policy makers and institutions of government. Institutional Structure and Donor Support. While the institutional arrangements proposed in the I-PRSPs are adequate, capacity constraints are clearly significant in FRY and key government officials are overstretched. The ability of the governments to remain focused on the PRSP for the full process will depend on strengthening the capacity of key ministries and agencies, including through coordinated external technical assistance. Without targeted donor support, the PRSP will be at risk of being crowded out by the multitude of priorities demanding the attention of government. Capacity constraints are likely to be particularly acute in Montenegro, owing to the smaller size of government and the current focus on implementing newly enacted legislation. The development of adequate institutional capacity for

10 statistical and poverty monitoring to allow for thorough evaluation of results will also be difficult given the proposed ambitious timetable. The Consultative Process. Both republics have outlined impressive frameworks for the participation of the full spectrum of civil society actors. The consultative process will need to be carefully designed and implemented, in order not to raise expectations in excess of what would be feasible within existing fiscal and structural constraints. Finally, as the strategy is developed it may be found that more time is required to achieve consensus despite the ambitious consultative framework proposed. VII. CONCLUSION 30. The staffs of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund consider that the interim Poverty Reduction Strategy for the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia provides a sound basis for development of a fully participatory PRSP. The staffs recommend that the Executive Directors of the World Bank and the IMF reach the same conclusion. Bank staff further concludes that the I-PRSP provides the sound basis for Bank concessional assistance and recommends that the Executive Directors of the World Bank reach the same conclusion.

11 Key World Bank-IMF Events related to the PRSP Organization Event Expected Date Govt/WB/IMF PRSP launch April 2002 WB PRSP Parliamentary Workshop May 2002 on Governance (Finland) (WBI) IMF EFF Approval May 13, 2002 IMF FAD Mission June 2002 IMF Statistics TA Mission July 2002 IMF I-PRSP & JSA Board Review August 6, 2002 WB TSS Update Board Review August 8, 2002 WB I-PRSP & JSA Board Review August 8, 2002 WB Agriculture Round Table Fall 2002 WB Workshop on Public Expenditure Fall 2002 Study & Country Financial Accountability Study (Belgrade/Podgorica) WB Regional Poverty Forum (Vienna) (WBI) October 2002 WB Microcredit Workshop (Belgrade) November 2002 WB FRY Fiscal Sustainability Study March 2003 Govt./WB/IMF Full PRSP and JSA June 2003 WB CAS (FY04-06) Summer 2003

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