Project Analysis in Developing Countries

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1 Project Analysis in Developing Countries

2

3 Project Analysis in Developing Countries Steve Curry Senior ProjectEconomist Asian Development Bank Manila, Philippines and John Weiss Professor o( Development Economics University of Bradford Second Ed ition palgrave macmillan

4 * Steve Curry and John Weiss 1993,2000 All. rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisionsof the Copyright, Designsand Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licehce perrnitting Ilrrrltedcopying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron Housel6-10 Kirby Street, LondonEC1 N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civilclaims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identifiedas the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright,Designsand Patents Act 198B. First published 1993 Reprinted several ti rnes Second edition 2000 First published 1993 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macrnillah in the UK is an lmprint of MacrniUah PublishersLimited, registered in England, company number , of Houndrnllls, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG2.1 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the USis a divisionof St Martin's Press LLC I 1.75 FifthAvenue, New York, NY Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and MacmiUan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdorn, Europeand other countries. ISBN DOI-l0.1057/ ISBN (eBook) This book is printed on paper suitable for recyclingand rnade from fully rnanaged and sustained forest sources. togglrtg; pulping and rnanufacturlng processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this bookis available from the BritishLibrary.

5 For Gisella (5C) For Francis (fw)

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7 Contents List offigures List oftables Preface to the Second Edition Introduction viii ix xiii 2 Main features of Projects, Project Resource Statements and Financial Statements 8 3 Project Criteria 41 4 National Economic Returns and the Use of Economic Prices 71 5 The World Price System of Economic Analysis The Domestic Price System of Economic Analysis Non-traded Output and Benefit Valuation financial Analysis of Projects Uncertainty Projects and Environmental Effects Income Distribution Effects of Projects National Economic Parameters Limitations and Conclusions 323 Bibliography Index vii

8 List of Figures Project benefits and costs: different types of project Project life: technical, market and economic life Economic life of a project Op erating costs Project resource profiles BCR NPV curves NPV curves: different points of view NPV curves: project alternatives Incremental resource flow Project cost alternatives Incr emental resource cost flow Output effects: competitive market Output effects: regulated market Input effects: competitive market Input effects: regulated market Traded project output Traded project input Exported output Impor table output Conflicting decision: financial and economic price calculations (case 3) Financial and economic pr ice calculations Transport and distribution elem ent in border parity pricing Equivalence of world and domestic pri ce systems Increa se in supply cau sing price fall Original producers fully displaced by a new project Willingness to pay (WTP) Identificati on of two price- consumption points without and with project Two separate demand lines for different products Demand for transport SIO table: direct coefficients vii i

9 List of Tables 2.1 Project perspectives and statements Project investment costs Working capital calculation Carton project: resource flow statement Project financial statement Applying a discount factor as a weight Discounting a net benefit stream Discounted resource statement :H 2.9 Discounting a constant annual amount Discounting and time profiles Resource statement: project criteria Resource flow with more than one JRR Textile plant: different points of view Resource statements: project alternatives Comparison of NPV and BCR criteria Inconsistent results: NPV and JRR Incremental resource statement Least cost analysis: pipeline alternatives cost statements Incremental resource cost statement 63 :3. ]() Cost effectiveness analysis: accounting skills Resource statements and investment constraint Project criteria: investment fund constraint Project criteria: adjusted discount rate Economic price of exportable output: timber Economic price of import substitute output: pumps Economic price of power input supplies Application of conversion factors Alternative numeraires for economic price values Decision combinations at financial and economic prices Conversion factor for non-traded activity: electricity Estimated returns to land at world prices Use of world prices 124 5A.1 Financial returns to Water Authority 126 5A.2 Financial analysis, costs and benefits to farmers 127 5A.3 Fanners' costs 129 5A.4 Price data 129 ix

10 x List oftables SA.S Economic analysis, costs, world price system 130 5A.6 Border parity prices 133 5A.7 Economic analysis, benefits, world price system CF for foreign exchange Numerical example in world and domestic price systems Electricity conversion factor : domestic price system 148 M.1 Financial analysis, costs and benefits to farmers 155 6A.2 Economic analysis, costs, domestic price system 1S7 6A.3 Economic analysis, benefits, domestic price system 160 6A.4 DRC irrigation: illustration Willingness to pay (WTP) in water supply Average cost savings without project traffic Education project: life time worker income without and with project Education project: benefits and costs in present values at 10 per cent Health pro ject: cost effectiveness 186 7A.1 Fin ancial analysis (case 1 tariff = O&M costs) 190 7A.2 Economic analysis (case 1 tariff = O&M costs), domestic price system 195 7A.3 Economic analysis (case 1 tariff = O&M costs), world price system 197 7A.4 Financial analysis (case 2 tariff = O&M costs + 40 per cent) 198 7A.5 Economic analysis (case 2 tariff = O&M costs + 40 per cent), domestic price system 199 7A.6 Economic analysis (case 2 tariff = O&M costs + 40 per cent), world price system FinanciallRR: railway project Comparators for financial indicators Financial cost of initial capital (FCIC) Financial IRR: railway corporation Return on equity Average incremental cost Project cash flow (current prices) Resource flow: best estimates Percentage cost breakdown and conversion factors Switching values Risk analysis: basic data Results of risk analysis Economic value of gas 250

11 List of Tables xi 10.2 Valuation of environmental effects Project A: mining project Project B: power rehabilitation Project C: national park Financial analysis: telecommunications project Economic analysis in domestic prices Distribution analysis: divergence between economic and financial values Summary distribution effect Alternative measures of poverty impact: telecommunications example Distributional analysis: divergence between economic and financial values with foreign financing Distributional analysis: divergence between economic and financial values using world prices Summary distribution effect: world price analysis Income weights Re-valuation of telecommunications project with income weights \.1 Water example distributional effects A.2 Distributional effect: case \.3 Water example: distributional effects with higher tariff A.4 Distributional effect: case l1a.5 Ranking poverty-oriented programmes SIO table: direct coefficients Total primary factors of output in productive sectors Full CF results Indonesia discount rate, Results of NEP studies 316

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13 Preface to the Second Edition Project analysis has grown up in the last 40 years and has been widely adopted, particularly in the process of external funding of public sector projects. Project analyses are undertaken from different points of view, and the scope of the analysis varies in different applications. The focus of this book is on the economic analysis of projects in developing countries, which we see as complementary to financial, environmental, or social analyses. This emphasis on the economic impact of projects remains relevant, partly because of the major change in the portfolio of aid-funded projects, which are now predominantly from infrastructure and social sectors, for which financial appraisals will either be inappropriate or will be seriously misleading as a guide to project worth. Project analysis has been facilitated greatly by the development of microcomputing, so what were once relatively complex manual calculations can be carried out rapidly using spreadsheet packages. The ways in which microcomputing techniques can be used for the analysis of projects is a subject in its own right and the application of spreadsheets to project decisions is not discussed here. Since the first edition of this book was published in 1993 several other texts on project analysis have become available, such as Perkins (1994), Dinwiddy and Teal (1995) and AnB (1997). We would like to think that our text complements these, particularly that of Dinwiddy and Teall which is a rigorous survey of the theory of the subject. Here we have tried to combine the application of project analysis methods with their theoretical underpinnings. Multilateral financing institutions have also renewed their interest in the economic analysis of projects (ADB,1997; World Bank, 1998). The applications in this second edition are consistent with the practise of these institutions. Apart from the use of different project examples, illustrations and references the new edition contains two new chapters, Chapter 8 on the link between economic and financial analysis and Chapter 10 on the economic effects of environmental impact. These have become more important in recent years. In addition, Chapter 4 which introduces the issue of economic value, Chapter 7 on non-traded goods and Chapter 11 on income distribution have been completely rewritten. xiii

14 xiv Preface to the Second Edition The authors take this opportunity to acknowledge the excellent work of Jean Hill who once again helped us in producing the manuscript despite her other responsibilities. STEVE CURRY JO HN WEIS S

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