Wish List of Modifying National Statistical Infrastructures for Improved International Input-Output Databases

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1 Wish List of Modifying National Statistical Infrastructures for Improved International Input-Output Databases Satoshi INOMATA (IDE-JETRO) Norihiko YAMANO (OECD) Bo MENG (IDE-JETRO) Workshop on the Fragmentation of Global Production and Trade in Value-Added, June 9-10, /6/13 1

2 Outline What is International Input-Output Databases Required data sources Data availability Methodology OECD IDE-JETRO Wish list for improving quality of International Input-Output Database 2011/6/13 2

3 International I-O database: what is it? What is available info Sectoral final expenditures and value-added components (labour income, capital depreciation) for each country Interindustry transactions (both domestic and cross border) for intermediate and final expenditures (i.e. HHCP, GFCF) Imports and exports of intermediate and final expenditures What is not available Social accounting matrix info (links between income and HHCP, GFCF, remittance, FDI) royalties, demographic figures, capital stock, price or quantity, effects over years How do we use it? (basic approaches) Demand-driven (backward): Final exp --> VA and intermediate imports Supply-driven (forward): Primary inputs (VA) and imports -> Final exp and output /6/13

4 Required data sources and statistical challenges Harmonized national Input-Output database of domestics and import matrices for reference year Harmonized I-O for reference year, Interpolation techniques, sector split, price adjustment, trade and tax margins, intermediate imports and exports trade Mirrored bilateral trade coefficients (goods, utility, and services) At least HS6 digit level merchandize trade, re-exports (NLD/HKG/SGP), energy trade, trade in services, transport cost, trade quantity, unspecified partners and sectors Additional inter-country transaction information (semi-official Intl-IO US-JP, bilateral BoP, etc) 2011/6/13 4

5 Available data sources National input-output tables years around 2005 is available for major economies including import matrices Annual national account is available for most countries but less industry level and not perfectly harmonized with I-O Trade in goods: Comtrade/ITCS/Eurostat, Re-exports, FOB based imports Trade in services ( ) Transport cost, port efficiency and economic distances 2011/6/13 5

6 IDE s AIO and OECD s ICIO IDE-JETRO OECD Time series 4 Time series Special survey 1 0 Country coverage Special survey 1 0 Country coverage Trade coefficient Trade coefficient 2011/6/13 6

7 OECD s Multinational Input-Output Model 2011/6/13 7

8 OECD Input-Output Database History 1995ed: 10 countries ( ) 2002ed: 24 countries for mid90s 2006ed & current: mid90s-2005 Format Inter-industry transactions (48 sectors) ISIC 3 harmonized classification Import &domestic inputs are separated Global GDP coverage (88%,2005) Global population coverage (64%,2005) Database and sample indicators are available at OECD.Stat OECD countries + 14 non-members (G20, BRIICS, ASEAN6,NAFTA, accession countries, other EU members)

9 Estimation procedure a) Preparation of Input-Output tables for reference years b) Preparation of bilateral trade data by end-use categories for reference years. merchandize, services and utility. Many missing flows are filled by econometric model estimates. c) Conversion of c.i.f. price based import figures to fob pricebased imports d) Separation of import matrix of each country by cleaned trade coefficients e) Total adjustment (missing sectors, trade with rest of the world, etc) Minimization of discrepancy columns by biproportional method. f) Merged inter-country database to regional blocs 2011/6/13 9

10 Main data sources: I-O and BTD Harmonized format Input-Output 50 countries (33 OECD countries) Years:1995,2000,2005 Industry: 37 sectors based on ISIC/NACE Rev 3 system Bilateral trade database Unallocated partners and sectors - Re-exports adjustment. Using national data sources (HKG) - Intermediate/enduse allocation by industry - CIF/FOB adjustments - Filled the missing number in bilateral services

11 Global trade share by region and by end-use 2009 % 100 Personal computers and Passenger cars Capital goods Mining Household consumption goods Other intermediate goods Intermediate goods for assembly USA Japan (949 b$) (560 b$) OECD.EU15 (3785 b$) OECD.Others (1950 b$) China (1529 b$) BRIIS (706 b$) Rest of World (2540 b$) 2011/6/13 11

12 IDE-JETRO s Asian International Input-Output Tables (IDE-AIO) 2011/6/13 12

13 History of the IDE-AIO Tables In 1965, IDE constructed international I-O models as analytical tools for the North-South trade issues (North America, Europe, Oceania, Latin America, Japan and rest of Asia) Since 1978, IDE is producing Asian International I-O Tables (IDE- AIO) for major Asian economies. Tables for 1975 Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and United States Tables for 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005 (forthcoming,2011) China and Taiwan 2011/6/13 13

14 Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand China Taiwan Korea Japan U.S.A. Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand China Taiwan Korea Japan U.S.A. Export to H.Kong Export to EU Export to R.O.W. Discrepancy Total Outputs Figure 5: Layout of Asian I-O Schematic Image of the AIO Table Intermediate Demand (A) Final Demand (F) Export (L) code (AI) (AM)(AP) (AS) (AT) (AC)(AN)(AK) (AJ) (AU) (FI) (FM) (FP) (FS) (FT) (FC) (FN) (FK) (FJ) (FU) (LH) (LO)(LW)(QX) (XX) Indonesia (AI) A II A IM A IP A IS A IT A IC A IN A IK A IJ A IU F II F IM F IP F IS F IT F IC F IN F IK F IJ F IU L IH L IO L IW Q I X I Malaysia (AM) A MI A MM A MP A MS A MT A MC A MN A MK A MJ A MU F MI F MM F MP F MS F MT F MC F MN F MK F MJ F MU L MH L MO L MW Q M X M Philippines (AP) A PI A PM A PP A PS A PT A PC A PN A PK A PJ A PU F PI F PM F PP F PS F PT F PC F PN F PK F PJ F PU L PH L PO L PW Q P X P Singapore (AS) A SI A SM A SP A SS A ST A SC A SN A SK A SJ A SU F SI F SM F SP F SS F ST F SC F SN F SK F SJ F SU L SH L SO L SW Q S X S Thailand (AT) A TI A TM A TP A TS A TT A TC A TN A TK A TJ A TU F TI F TM F TP F TS F TT F TC F TN F TK F TJ F TU L TH L TO L TW Q T X T China (AC) A CI A CM A CP A CS A CT A CC A CN A CK A CJ A CU F CI F CM F CP F CS F CT F CC F CN F CK F CJ F CU L CH L CO L CW Q C X C Taiwan (AN) A NI A NM A NP A NS A NT A NC A NN A NK A NJ A NU F NI F NM F NP F NS F NT F NC F NN F NK F NJ F NU L NH L NO L NW Q N X N Korea (AK) A KI A KM A KP A KS A KT A KC A KN A KK A KJ A KU F KI F KM F KP F KS F KT F KC F KN F KK F KJ F KU L KH L KO L KW Q K X K Japan (AJ) A JI A JM A JP A JS A JT A JC A JN A JK A JJ A JU F JI F JM F JP F JS F JT F JC F JN F JK F JJ F JU L JH L JO L JW Q J X J U.S.A. (AU) A UI A UM A UP A US A UT A UC A UN A UK A UJ A UU F UI F UM F UP F US F UT F UC F UN F UK F UJ F UU L UH L UO L UW Q U X U Freight and Insurance (BF) BA I BA M BA P BA S BA T BA C BA N BA K BA J BA U BF I BF M BF P BF S BF T BF C BF N BF K BF J BF U Import from H. Kong (CH) A HI A HM A HP A HS A HT A HC A HN A HK A HJ A HU F HI F HM F HP F HS F HT F HC F HN F HK F HJ F HU Import from EU (CO) A OI A OM A OP A OS A OT A OC A ON A OK A OJ A OU F OI F OM F OP F OS F OT F OC F ON F OK F OJ F OU Import from the R.O.W. (CW) A WI A WM A WP A WS A WT A WC A WN A WK A WJ A WU F WI F WM F WP F WS F WT F WC F WN F WK F WJ F WU Duties & Import Taxes (DT) DA I DA M DA P DA S DA T DA C DA N DA K DA J DA U DF I DF M DF P DF S DF T DF C DF N DF K DF J DF U Value Added (VV) V I V M V P V S V T V C V N V K V J V U Total Inputs (XX) X I X M X P X S X T X C X N X K X J X U 2011/6/13 14

15 Compilation Process of the AIO Table Harmonization of national input-output data sources Preparation of sector concordance (HS/SITC-NIO-AIO) and supplementary data Linking of the tables Balancing work 2011/6/13 15

16 Adjustment of Presentation Format 2011/6/13 16

17 Preparation of sector concordance and supplementary data HS (SITC)-NIO-AIO sector concordance Import data by commodity and by country of origin Export data by commodity and by country of destination Import duties and import commodity taxes by commodity Domestic trade margins and domestic freight transport costs (TTM) on exported goods, by commodity International freight and insurance, by commodity and by country of origin Other relevant information, such as Employment Matrices by country and by employment status (own account worker, employee, unpaid family worker) 2011/6/13 17

18 Special Survey on Industrial Demand of Imported Goods Commodity Description SITC Code Code of Origin Country C.I.F. Import Value (Unit: Pesos) Duties & Import Comm. Taxes (Unit : Pesos) Int l Freight & Insurance (Unit : Pesos) Distribution of the C.I.F. Import Value (Using Sector / Destination) I-O Code Value (Unit: Pesos) rice HH Share (%) meat, dried, salted or smoked ,991 1,563 5, , , , , HH 84, OH 9, The total of distribution values should be the same as for the amount imported. The total of the percentage share should be 100%. 2011/6/13 18

19 Linking of national I-O tables <Country 1> Replaced by Country 2's import matrix <International I-O Table> Ad Fd E 2 E R Am 2 Fm 2 Ad (prod.) Am 1 (prod.) Fd (prod.) Fm 2 (prod.) E R (prod.) Am R Fm R V Related Data: F&I, D&T, TTM Am 2 (prod.) Ad (prod.) Fm 2 (prod.) Fd (prod.) E R (prod.) <Country 2> Am 1 Fm 1 Am R (CIF) Am R (CIF) Fm R (CIF) Fm R (CIF) Ad Fd E 1 E R Am R Fm R V Related Data: F&I, D&T, TTMReplaced by Country 1's import matrix V V 2011/6/13 19

20 Adjustment Procedure 2011/6/13 20

21 Cross-border transfer of employment opportunities, 2000 and 2005 (Thousands of persons) 21

22 Recent Other Works on IO Tables Done by IDE-JETRO 2003: China s Multiregional IO Table (1997) 8 regions, 30 sectors Interregional commodity flow is mainly based on Leontief-Strout type gravity model, and also the survey of important and large enterprises (549). 2006: Transnational Interregional IO Table between China and Japan (2000) 19 regions (7 for China, 8 for Japan, ASEAN, East Asia, USA), 10 sectors Materials: AIO table, China s Multiregional IO table, Japan s interregional IO table, Export and import data at domestic province level. 2011: BRICs International IO Table (2005) 7 countries (country groups): BRICs (4), EU, USA, Japan 2011/6/13 22

23 Wish List for improving International IO Table I-O Rest of the world (developing economies) Time lag -> Annual SUTs Trade statistics Survey information on industrial demand of imported goods and services Second hand goods are included in trade stat. Re-export, re-import statistics by origin and destination More detailed information about international freight and insurance by origin and destination /6/13

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