RAZLIKA U PRISTUPU EKONOMSKOJ PROCJENI KONVENCIONALNIH I NE NAGLASKOM NA NEKONVE
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1 UDK UDC Jezik:Hrvatski/Croatian ugljikovodika 9. Svibnja, 2014, Zagreb Pregledni rad Review RAZLIKA U PRISTUPU EKONOMSKOJ PROCJENI KONVENCIONALNIH I NE NAGLASKOM NA NEKONVE DIFFERENCE IN APPROACH TO ECONOMIC EVALUATION BETWEEN CONVENTIONAL AND UNCONVENTIONAL PROJECTS IGOR RUSAN 1 1 INA D.D., Avenija V Holjevca 10, Zagreb, Hrvatska; IGOR.RUSAN@INA.HR -a se neko kona te kvaliteti i u njima. a okusni se temelji na minimalno tri razradb 1. Uvod - u smislu redosli treba i kako bi se i i i (slika 1). Ekonomska edstava, uglavnom Key words: r resources, risk, EU legal framework Abstract: ronmental and fiscal laws in force in a given region. metodologija POS-
2 2 Rud.-geol.-naft. zb., Vol. 28, toga je smanjenje ovisnosti o uvoznim energentima i entnosti, dok se s druge strane Slika 1. Figure 1. Technical evaluation process flow in exploration projects 2. Karakteristike konvencionalnih i anje izolatorske krovinske strukturnoj, strukturno stratigrafskoj ili stratigrafskoj gravitacijsko - geološko gravimetriju je uvijek koristimo u ranim i kasnijim fazama u rezultat dobivamo lognormalnu distribuciju rezer-
3 Rud.-geol.-naft. zb., Vol. 28, nesi - rutinski, osim ako se ne izvode u ekstremnim klimatskim uvjetima ili vrlo dubokom moru. Slika 2. R HASKETT& BROWN 2005) Figure 2. Risk and uncertainty comparison of conventional vs. unconventional projects naknadn 3. O rizicima kod proizvodnje iz Dva su glavna rizika da nju (bilo zbog nedostatka i nakon stimulacije). Drugi je vezan uz toliko male nisu dovoljne za ekonomsku toga treba biti usmjerena na nesigurnosti vezane vodika. To svojstvim vrsti i ekonomskoj engl. expected value, skr. EV je e - m razdoblju -. Kako se on - tako i na dinamiku radova. To ima izravan, lokalne zajednice. glavni rizik, stimulacije l 4. Procjena ugljikovodika (resurse),, bušotinu. je konstanta tj. dosegom do - varijabla, a ostale varijable ugljikovodika, efektivna debljina, volumni faktor za ugljikovodike jenje su (slika 3). e ugljikovodika sveli s razine na razinu bušotine. Ta metodologija (HASKETT & BROWN, 2005) nazvana je EUR Envelope ili
4 4 intervalni rezultat. Rud.-geol.-naft. zb., Vol. 28, 2014., gdje je rezultat lognormaln da se mogu odrediti da se variraju, a. Ulazne vrijednosti za kovodika, volumni faktor za ugljikovodike u model dobar i loš vrijednosti kao donja i gornja granica. krivulja, tj. vrijednos najgore dobre Rizik 5. Proizvodni profili Slika 3. (iz HASKETT& BROWN 2005) Figure 3. EUR Envelope concept, prospect vs. well resources distribution (HASKETT& BROWN 2005) 4). Slika 4. Figure 4. Typical conventional prospect production profile (JAHN et al., 2008), iako je da u godini dana 50 %, relativno i dvadesetak godina slika 5).
5 Rud.-geol.-naft. zb., Vol. 28, Slika 5. Figure 5. Typical unconventional production profile (HASKETT & BROWN, 2005) Pilot- se je da biti. Time se neto sa njega akvu, to su tolerancija na rizik tvrtke i sigurnosti ( 3 do 6. Troškovi ulaganja -a i n (ulaganja gdje su,, male nesigurnosti u, kod i Slika 6. R (iz HASKETT & BROWN 2011) a - lativost na slici Projekti iskorištavanja nekonvencionalnih Sjeverne Amerike, svojevrstan - eo ugljikovodika ). karakteristikama. To i komisija izdala avaca volumena fluida dati osvrt o mjerama Figure 6. Contribution of uncertainty of principal elements in Net Present Value (NPV) calculation of unconventional projects
6 6 Rud.-geol.-naft. zb., Vol. 28, Slika 7. Figure 7. Different approaches regarding unconventional projects in Europe (The Economist ) Izbjegavanje standardima. vodnje tako elike kemikalijama koje se koriste kod frakturiranja, te kakve -, svi razina vlasti i javnosti o metodama radova, vrsti kemikalija, rabe rabe u is na u Smanjiti razliku u cijeni kurencije. bonizacija). energije u EU. stijena obzirom na svojstva glede nekonven- 3, iz 3 moratoriji). - Pozornost je usmjerena na bojazan o utjecaju na rizici i negativan utjecaj. U fno-., oni u te u. Stoga bi trebalo im ma s obzirom na
7 Rud.-geol.-naft. zb., Vol. 28, i fiskalnim uvjetima 8. Literatura Calgary, -15, 2010 MacKey, V. (ured.) (1994): Determination of Oil and Gas of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum, Calgary Section, stud -Basin, Croatia. Oil, gas - - u tisku , Colorado. malnim ww - cting- - -gas-and-oil-will-be-slow-anddifficult-business-frack-future
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