THE FINANCING OF CORPORATE INVESTMENT IN SPAIN ALONG THE CURRENT RECOVERY PHASE
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1 THE FINANCING OF CORPORATE INVESTMENT IN SPAIN ALONG THE CURRENT RECOVERY PHASE Roberto Blanco Head of the Financial Analysis Division BE-EIB Conference: Investment and Investment Finance the Spanish Case Madrid, 8 September 17 DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS, STATISTICS AND RESEARCH
2 Strong corporate investment recovery in Spain in spite of the intense deleveraging INVESTMENT (MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT) INVESTMENT AND NFC DEBT 15 8 q1 = q1= SPAIN EURO AREA INVESTMENT (SPAIN) NFC DEBT (SPAIN) INVESTMENT (EURO AREA) NFC DEBT (EURO AREA) Sources: Banco de España, Eurostat DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS, STATISTICS AND RESEARCH 2
3 Internal funding has been key during the crisis and the recovery, buffering debt contraction % of NFC GVA INVESTMENT AND FINANCING FLOWS Resources Uses GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION INTERNAL FUNDING (GROSS SAVING) FINANCIAL DEBT NEW SHARES AND OTHER EQUITY FINANCIAL ASSETS OTHER Sources: INE, Banco de España DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS, STATISTICS AND RESEARCH 3
4 Aggregate deleveraging has been compatible with a significant share of investing firms raising their indebtedness ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NFCs WITH POSITIVE OR ZERO NET INVESTMENT. FLOWS ASSETS AND LIABILITIES OF NFCs WITH NEGATIVE NET INVESTMENT. FLOWS % GVA % 8 % GVA % 8 Resources Resources Uses s -1 - Uses s GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION INTERNAL FUNDING (GROSS SAVINGS) FINANCIAL DEBT NEW SHARES AND OTHER EQUITY FINANCIAL ASSETS OTHER FIRMS AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL (RHS) -8 Source: Banco de España DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS, STATISTICS AND RESEARCH 4
5 Business investment determinants Firms with positive net investment are more profitable, more productive and have a stronger financial position than those whose investment does not cover the depreciation of their fixed assets. Following the crisis, firms investment decisions are more sensitive to their indebtedness. Impact on the probability of positive net investment Coefficients for 5-7 Coefficients for 8-13 Coefficients for Profitability it-1.3*** ***'_ Debt burden it-1 _ '-.9*** -.12*** -.9***_' Indebtedness it *** -.65*** -.58*** Sales growth it-1 '.41***..32***.32***' Total factor productivity it ***..1***.41*** Source: Banco de España DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS, STATISTICS AND RESEARCH 5
6 Since the crisis, the efficiency of credit allocation has improved MEDIAN DEBT BURDEN OF NON-FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS (t-1) (a) AVERAGE DIFFERENCE IN TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, IN t-1, BETWEEN FIRMS WHOSE CREDIT IS NOT DECLINING AND THOSE WHOSE CREDIT IS DECLINING % 14 % FIRMS WHOSE CREDIT IS NOT DECLINING FIRMS WHOSE CREDIT IS DECLINING INDUSTRY TRADE, HOTELS AND CATERING INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS CONSTRUCTION AND REAL ESTATE OTHER SECTORS a The debt burden is defined as the ratio between interest payments on financing received and gross income (sum of gross operating profit and financial revenue). Source: Banco de España DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS, STATISTICS AND RESEARCH 6
7 a process that has been accompanied by an improvement in the selection of borrowers by credit institutions Impact on the probability of a firm obtaining credit from any bank PROBABILITY OF OBTAINING CREDIT Coefficients for 5Q1-8Q1 Coefficients for 8Q2-13Q3 Coefficients for 13Q4-16Q2 % 8 75 Previous NPLs *** Indebtedness -.36*** -.78*** -.12*** 7 65 Debt burden. -.2*** -.3*** 6 No. of previous relationships with banks.6***.14***.15*** 55 5 Total assets -.1.9***.5** Age.4.18***.3 Source: Banco de España MEDIAN FIRM LESS FINANCIALLY SOUND FIRM MORE FINANCIALLY SOUND FIRM DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS, STATISTICS AND RESEARCH 7
8 Conclusions How have Spanish firms financed investment along the recovery? Heterogeneity at the firm level is key to account for aggregate dynamics: Some companies invest, others reduce their debts Internal funding has played an important role Improvement in credit allocation accompanied by changes in the selection of borrowers by banks DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS, STATISTICS AND RESEARCH 8
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