Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship?
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1 Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? Stephanie Johnson Northwestern University Policy Summit on Housing, Human Capital and Inequality June 2017 Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 1 / 23
2 Are mortgage regulations affecting entrepreneurship? Residential mortgage credit important for early stage businesses. Business owners particularly affected by regulations targeting unaffordable (high payment-to-income) mortgages: Restrictions on how business income is counted by lenders. Payment-to-income limits make it difficult for lenders to take compensating factors (e.g. collateral) into account. Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 2 / 23
3 Questions How do verified payment-to-income restrictions affect self-employed credit access? Does this have broader effects? Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 3 / 23
4 Questions How do verified payment-to-income restrictions affect self-employed credit access? Reduces mortgage lending in high self-employment areas. Does this have broader effects? Reduces self-employment and new small business employment. Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 3 / 23
5 Ability-to-Repay Ability-to-Repay (ATR) rules implemented in US in 2014: Verification: Require banks to rigorously assess whether repayments are affordable given verified income. Payment restriction: less than 43% of verified income (with some exceptions). Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 4 / 23
6 Why is ATR a problem for the self-employed? To count business income need: Two years of verified accounts. Focus is on the lower bound of recent income history. Tax optimization verifiable income may be lower. Less likely to qualify for classes of loans exempt from the rules (conforming, FHA). Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 5 / 23
7 Important exemptions from 43% PTI requirement Conforming loans. Government-insured loans. Loans originated and held in portfolio by small lenders. Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 6 / 23
8 Approach Lenders exempt if sufficiently small: Assets <$2 billion, holding company loans < 500. Compare exempt bank lending with similar non-exempt banks (non-exempt because part of holding company). Look at effect of access to exempt banks on self-employment and new small business employment. Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 7 / 23
9 Data
10 Data HMDA Loan-level data covering most U.S. residential mortgages. ACS Census tract self-employment share. BEA Non-farm proprietors employment. FDIC Branch deposits and locations. LODES Census tract employment. Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 8 / 23
11 Locations of exempt banks Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 9 / 23
12 Locations of small non-exempt banks Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 10 / 23
13 Households with self-employment income Cook County, IL Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 11 / 23
14 Distance from exempt branches Cook County, IL Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 12 / 23
15 Distance from exempt branches Cook County, IL Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 12 / 23
16 Mortgage Credit
17 Are locations with high self-employment more affected? Does relationship between census tract self-employment and credit growth change following policy? log(loans) c,y = γ n,y + β 1,y SelfEmployment c + β 2,y X c + ɛ c,y Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 13 / 23
18 Are locations with high self-employment more affected? Does market share of affected banks decline by more in high self-employment tracts? M NonExempt,c,y = γ c + α y + β 1,y SelfEmployment c + β 2,y X c + ɛ c,y Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 13 / 23
19 % Loan Growth Non-exempt Share Explanatory Variables Coef. SE Coef. SE 2011 Self-emp (0.182) 2012 Self-emp (0.064) (0.133) 2013 Self-emp (0.077) 2014 Self-emp *** (0.049) *** (0.129) 2015 Self-emp (0.045) ** (0.144) Number of Tracts 33,906 1,088 Number of Counties 2, Number of States Number of Observations 123,972 3,778 County Year FE X Tract, Year FE X Tract Year controls X X Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 14 / 23
20 Self-employment and Non-exempt Bank Share (β 1,y ) Percentage Points Year Coefficient 95% CI Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 15 / 23
21 Employment
22 Effect on self-employment How does the policy affect self-employment? SelfEmployment n,y = γ n + α s,y + β 1,y ExemptDepositShare n + β 2,y X n + ɛ n,y Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 16 / 23
23 Exempt Deposit Share and Self-employment (β 1,y ) Percentage Points Year Coefficient 95% CI Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 17 / 23
24 Exempt Deposit Share and Self-employment (β 1,y ) Percentage Points Year Exempt Share > 0% Exempt Share > 10% Exempt Share > 20% Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 17 / 23
25 Employment analysis How does the policy affect new small firm employment? New Small Firm Emp. c,y Total Emp. c,y = γ c + α n,y + β 1,y d(nearest Exempt) c +β 2,y X c + ɛ c,y Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 18 / 23
26 (1) (2) New Business Old Business New Small Firm Emp /Total Emp Coef./SE p-value Coef./SE p-value 2012 Distance (km) (0.0002) (0.0004) 2014 Distance (km) *** (0.0001) (0.0005) Number of Observations 61,201 46,150 County Year FE X X Census Tract FE X X Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 19 / 23
27 (1) (2) New Business Old Business log(new Small Firm Emp /Total Emp) Coef./SE p-value Coef./SE p-value 2012 Distance (km) (0.0055) (0.0021) 2014 Distance (km) * (0.0052) (0.0024) Number of Observations 36,298 44,507 County Year FE X X Census Tract FE X X Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 20 / 23
28 (1) (2) New Business Old Business log(new Small Firm Emp + 1 /Total Emp) Coef./SE p-value Coef./SE p-value 2012 Distance (km) (0.0035) (0.0019) 2014 Distance (km) ** (0.0037) (0.0025) Number of Observations 61,201 46,150 County Year FE X X Census Tract FE X X Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 21 / 23
29 Summary of Results Ability-to-Repay rule reduces credit access for borrowers in high self-employment areas. Counties with a larger exempt bank presence have stronger growth in self-employment. Census tracts closer to exempt bank branches have stronger new small business employment outcomes. Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 22 / 23
30 Discussion Non-pecuniary benefit from self-employment welfare effects? Reduction in small firm entry: Are affected (potential) firms less productive? In general hard for most firms to access business loans, alternative funding initially. Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 23 / 23
31 Lending growth above and below 500 loan cutoff Density Density % Change in # Loans # 2012 loans in (500,550) # 2012 loans in (100,500) % Change in # Loans # 2012 loans in (550,600) # 2012 loans in (100,500) Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 23 / 23
Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship?
Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? Stephanie Johnson Northwestern University May 2018 Johnson Are Mortgage Regulations Affecting Entrepreneurship? 1 / 22 Are mortgage regulations reducing
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