Corporate leverage and investment in the aftermath of the financial crisis
|
|
|
- Neil Anthony
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 ECB-UNRESTRICTED FINAL Corporate leverage and investment in the aftermath of the financial crisis Philip Vermeulen European Central Bank Directorate General Research Copyright rests with the author. All rights reserved
2 Rubric Disclaimer This slide show should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. 2
3 Rubric Total investment in the euro area and CEPR recessions 3
4 The Rubric facts The euro area has experienced two recessions 4
5 The Rubric facts Credit to GDP is high 5
6 The Rubric facts Credit to GDP is not coming down 6
7 The Rubric facts Credit to GDP in US has come down 7
8 The Rubric facts Great recession was largest ever for the euro area Followed by a second recession: sovereign bond crisis (not in the US) Investment since 2008Q1: two recessions followed by recovery Two recessions were special: financial recessions firm s entered the great recession with historical high leverage. Leverage has not come down very much. 8
9 Borrower Rubric characteristics that reduced investment (Great recession) Financially constrained firms: Campello, Graham and Harvey (2010), Campello et al. (2011a and b) Long term debt maturing during crisis: Almeida et al (2009) Low cash reserves, high short term debt, industries that depend on external finance: Duchin, Ozbas & Sensoy (2010) Only 1 main lender: Carvalho, Ferreira and Matos (2015) Being bank-dependent: Buca and Vermeulen (2015) 9
10 Rubric Buca and Vermeulen (2015): bank-dependent borrowers reduce investment due to credit tightening in the financial crisis New evidence firm side: Euro area wide (6 countries) Actual investment outcome data, not surveys we construct credit tightening index from ECB Bank lending survey A 1st deviation tightening reduces investment of bankdependent borrowers by 6 to 14 percent relative to non-bank-dependent borrowers. crisis coincided with a 1.5 standard deviation tightening of credit. 10
11 Rubric Data panel of 24 manufacturing industries; 3 size classes;6 countries period annual data Annual balance sheet, profit & loss accounts Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Portugal 346 cross-section ; 1884 obs (NxT). BACH database 11
12 Rubric Definitions Bank debt leverage= bank debt over total assets Total leverage = total debt over total assets Bank dependence is higher when firm has higher bank debt leverage 12
13 Borrower Rubric characteristics that reduced investment (Great recession) 13
14 Rubric 14
15 Rubric 15
16 Rubric 16
17 Rubric Bank lending survey: banks tightened substantially during financial crisis; but differences across countries. bank-dependent borrowers reduced investment as a function of tightening: effects we find are large Total leverage has no independent effect: suggests that source of tightening is banks (and not low collateral) controlling for demand : strongly suggestive of bank supply effects and not simply a demand story 17
18 Borrower Rubric characteristics that reduced investment (Great recession) 18
19 Other Rubric important factors during the recovery Credit is not the only story Construction is still very weak Aggregate demand is weak But: large country heterogeneity 19
20 Construction Rubric Contribution of construction and non-construction on euro area investment (difference with 2008Q1,pp) 20
21 Construction Rubric Construction: country differences 21
22 Construction Rubric Construction since 1992 Japan: similar story 22
23 Construction Rubric US is doing better 23
24 Rubric Consumption Real consumption in the euro area and CEPR recessions 24
25 Rubric Also aggregate demand has been disappointing 25
26 Rubric Country heterogeneity 26
27 Rubric Conclusion Two financial recessions: financing constraints, leverage and bank credit played an important role in determining the magnitude of investment losses during those recessions The role of credit fluctuates (recession versus recovery) Credit is not the complete story Construction is still very weak Aggregate demand is weak Country and industry dimension 27
3 Lower interest rates and sectoral changes in interest income
Chart A 3 Lower interest rates and sectoral changes in interest income Euro area balance sheet and euro area property income This box describes the impact of the decline in interest rates on interest income
Debt Overhang, Rollover Risk, and Investment in Europe
Debt Overhang, Rollover Risk, and Investment in Europe Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, University of Maryland, CEPR and NBER Luc Laeven, ECB and CEPR David Moreno, University of Maryland September 2015, EC Post
ECB LTRO Dec Greece program
International Monetary Fund June 9, 212 Euro Area Crisis: Still in the Danger Zone */ Emil Stavrev Research Department ( */ Views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily
THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN 2012 ILTA CONFERENCE. 9 May 2012 Vicky Pryce
THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN 2012 ILTA CONFERENCE 9 May 2012 Vicky Pryce Contents Global and European economy UK economy Prospects for individuals and businesses Concluding remarks what next? Global and European
Adventures in Monetary Policy: The Case of the European Monetary Union
: The Case of the European Monetary Union V. V. Chari & Keyvan Eslami University of Minnesota & Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis The ECB and Its Watchers XIX March 14, 2018 Why the Discontent? The Tell-Tale
World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy. The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy. Presentation given by
World Economy Geopolitics Investment Strategy OUTLOOK FOR WORLD S MAJOR FINANCIAL MARKETS The Impact of EU s Sovereign Risks on Turkish Economy Presentation given by Dr. Michael Ivanovitch, President MSI
Fault Lines in the Public Sector
First IMF Statistical Forum Statistics for Global Economic and Financial Stability Fault Lines in the Public Sector Jüergen von Hagen University of Bonn Paper presented at the First IMF Statistical Forum
What is the economic outlook for OECD countries?
What is the economic outlook for OECD countries? An interim assessment Paris, 3 rd September 2009 11h00 Paris time Jørgen Elmeskov Acting Head of Economics Department Corporate bond spreads have come down
The Global Economy Modest Improvement
Title line 1 Title line 2 The Global Economy Modest Improvement Name David Katsnelson, Director Title, date RISI Macroeconomic Service 3 June, 2015 1 Agenda 1. Global Snapshot 2. China 3. External Environment
What is the global economic outlook?
The outlook What is the global economic outlook? Paul van den Noord Counselor to the Chief Economist The outlook Real GDP growth, in per cent United States.... Euro area. -. -.. Japan -.... Total OECD....
Cash holdings determinants in the Portuguese economy 1
17 Cash holdings determinants in the Portuguese economy 1 Luísa Farinha Pedro Prego 2 Abstract The analysis of liquidity management decisions by firms has recently been used as a tool to investigate the
Recent developments and challenges for the Portuguese economy
Recent developments and challenges for the Portuguese economy Carlos Name da Job Silva Costa Governor 13 January 214 Seminar National Seminar Bank name of Poland 19 June 215 Outline 1. Growing imbalances
Divergence and Adjustment in the Euro Area
MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS Divergence and Adjustment in the Euro Area Vítor Gaspar Frankfurt June 15, 2012 MINISTÉRIO DAS FINANÇAS 1 Outline 1. Credit Boom 2. Eliminating excessive debt 3. Challenges ahead
44 ECB HOW HAS MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY IN THE EURO AREA EVOLVED RECENTLY?
Box HOW HAS MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY IN THE EURO AREA EVOLVED RECENTLY? High macroeconomic uncertainty through its likely adverse effect on the spending decisions of both consumers and firms is considered
Effectiveness and Transmission of the ECB s Balance Sheet Policies
Effectiveness and Transmission of the ECB s Balance Sheet Policies Jef Boeckx NBB Maarten Dossche NBB Gert Peersman UGent Motivation There is a large literature that has used SVAR models to examine the
Financial Stability Report November London - 22 November 2013
Financial Stability Report November 2013 London - 22 November 2013 Outline of the Presentation o Overview of main risks o The financial condition of firms and households o The real-estate market o The
The Real Effects of Improving Access to Capital Markets Financing: Evidence from European SMEs
Dr. Alexander Eisele, UBS AM, Zurich Prof. Dr. Eric Nowak, Swiss Finance Institute and University of Lugano The Real Effects of Improving Access to Capital Markets Financing: Evidence from European SMEs
Euro area economic developments from monetary policy maker s perspective
Euro area economic developments from monetary policy maker s perspective Member of Executive Board Structure of the presentation: 1. Where do we come from? ECB s monetary policy set up and main reactions
Economic and Housing Outlook
Economic and Housing Outlook Macdonald Realty Monday, January 23, 212 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: European developments U.S. economy and forecasts Canadian economic
Discussion: Bank lending during the financial crisis of 2008
Discussion: Bank lending during the financial crisis of 2008 Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti Banca d Italia 3rd UNICREDIT GROUP CONFERENCE ON BANKING AND FINANCE The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect
Topic 8: Financial Frictions and Shocks Part1: Asset holding developments
Topic 8: Financial Frictions and Shocks Part1: Asset holding developments - The relaxation of capital account restrictions in many countries over the last two decades has produced dramatic increases in
Insolvency forecasts. Economic Research August 2017
Insolvency forecasts Economic Research August 2017 Summary We present our new insolvency forecasting model which offers a broader scope of macroeconomic developments to better predict insolvency developments.
Economic state of the union, EuroMemo Engelbert Stockhammer Kingston University
Economic state of the union, EuroMemo 2013 Engelbert Stockhammer Kingston University structure Economic developments Background: export-led growth and debt-led growth Growth, trade imbalances, ages and
Building a Financial Conditions Index for the Euro Area and Selected Euro Area Countries: What does it tell us about the crisis?
Building a Financial Conditions Index for the Euro Area and Selected Euro Area Countries: What does it tell us about the crisis? Eleni Angelopoulou, Hiona Balfoussia and Heather Gibson Special Studies
Global Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally
ECB Rate Cut~ Necessary to maintain market sentiment, but actual effects are limited
VOL 7, NO 1 July 6, 12 ECB Rate Cut~ Necessary to maintain market sentiment, but actual effects are limited Summary The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to cut the main refinancing rate from 1.% to
European bank performance 10 years after the crisis
European bank performance 1 years after the crisis London, European banks have become more profitable, but revenue gap to US peers widened further in last few years Net income USD / EUR bn, up to Q4 17
PORTUGAL E O CAMINHO PARA O FUTURO: A BANCA E O SEU PAPEL
XV CONFERÊNCIA A CRISE EUROPEIA E AS REFORMAS NECESSÁRIAS PORTUGAL E O CAMINHO PARA O FUTURO: A BANCA E O SEU PAPEL FERNANDO FARIA DE OLIVEIRA AGENDA European Context: From the Actual Crisis to Growth
The ECB s Strategy in Good and Bad Times Massimo Rostagno European Central Bank
The ECB s Strategy in Good and Bad Times Massimo Rostagno European Central Bank The views expressed herein are those of the presenter only and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB or the European
THE IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS ON THE CAPITAL INVESTMENT OF SMALL DUTCH CORPORATIONS.
THE IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS ON THE CAPITAL INVESTMENT OF SMALL DUTCH CORPORATIONS. Author: Meghan Tjallinks (s1224018) School of Management and Governance, University of Twente P.O. Box 217,
Debt Overhang, Rollover Risk, and Investment in Europe
Debt Overhang, Rollover Risk, and Investment in Europe Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, University of Maryland, CEPR and NBER Luc Laeven, ECB and CEPR David Moreno, University of Maryland June 9, 2015 Corporate Investment/GDP
CFA Institute Member Poll: Euro zone Stability Bonds
CFA Institute Member Poll: Euro zone Stability Bonds I. About the Survey... 2 a. Background... 2 b. Purpose and Methodology... 2 II. Full Results... 2 Q1: Requirement of common issuance of sovereign bonds...
Is the Euro Crisis Over?
Is the Euro Crisis Over? Klaus Regling, Managing Director, ESM International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, Geneva 25 March 2014 Eight reasons for the sovereign debt crisis 1. Member States did
Starting with the measures of uncertainty related to future economic outcomes, the following three sets of indicators are considered:
Box How has macroeconomic uncertainty in the euro area evolved recently? High macroeconomic uncertainty through its likely adverse effect on the spending decisions of both consumers and firms is considered
Household Balance Sheets and Debt an International Country Study
47 Household Balance Sheets and Debt an International Country Study Jacob Isaksen, Paul Lassenius Kramp, Louise Funch Sørensen and Søren Vester Sørensen, Economics INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY What are the
Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018.
Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018. 3 Eurozone The eurozone s recovery appears to strengthen
The Global Economy. RISI Asian Forest Products Summit 22 June, David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics
The Global Economy Heightened drisks RISI Asian Forest Products Summit 22 June, 2016 David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot A Two-Track World 2. China Slowing, Not Crashing
Macroprudential Policy Analysis for Real Estate Markets in the euro area
Reiner Martin Deputy Head Macroprudential Policies Division European Central Bank Macroprudential Policy Analysis for Real Estate Markets in the euro area Oslo 21 November 2017 Rubric Outline 1 Principles
Recent Recent Developments 0
Recent Developments 0 Global activity has slowed noticeably World Trade (annualized percent change of three month moving average over previous three month moving average) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Some Basic Facts about Government Expenditures and Taxation in Canada. Econ 525
Some Basic Facts about Government Expenditures and Taxation in Canada Econ 525 Revenues and Expenditures in Canada Since we re studying the role of government in this course it is worth considering some
Real effects of the Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe: Evidence from Syndicated Loans
Real effects of the Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe: Evidence from Syndicated Loans Viral V. Acharya, Tim Eisert, Christian Eufinger and Christian Hirsch Discussion by Daniela Fabbri Cass Business School
II.2. Member State vulnerability to changes in the euro exchange rate ( 35 )
II.2. Member State vulnerability to changes in the euro exchange rate ( 35 ) There have been significant fluctuations in the euro exchange rate since the start of the monetary union. This section assesses
The euro area bank lending survey. Second quarter of 2018
The euro area bank lending survey Second quarter of 218 July 218 Contents Introduction 2 1 Overview of the results 3 Box 1 General notes 5 2 Developments in credit standards, terms and conditions, and
Financial institutions and enterprises issue less debt securities in 2010
Financial institutions and enterprises issue less debt securities in 2010 Dutch financial institutions, enterprises and the government issued debt securities totalling EUR 66 billion last year. This was
The near-term global economic outlook
Overview The near-term global economic outlook Paul van den Noord Counsellor to the Chief Economist OECD 1 Overview World growth has slowed, including in EMEs. Trade has weakened. Unemployment is high
High Debt, Slow Growth, Financial Instability, Growing Inequality: What Role for Economic Policy?
High Debt, Slow Growth, Financial Instability, Growing Inequality: What Role for Economic Policy? Paul van den Noord Counsellor to the Chief Economist, OECD 1 Central projection growth, annualised, in
Euro Basis Swap 3-Month
Euro Basis Swap 3-Month -25-5 -75-1 -125-15 Euro swap (bps.) -175 Source: Bloomberg L.P., Saxo Bank Strategy & Research 9 EONIA - Euribor Spread (3-Month) 75 6 45 3 15 Euribor spread (bps.) 2 France -
What Are the Causes of the Growing Trend of Excess Savings of the Corporate Sector in Developed Countries?
Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 6571 What Are the Causes of the Growing Trend of Excess
ECB monetary policy since June 2014
Frank Smets European Central Bank ECB monetary policy since June 2014 The views expressed are my own and not necessarily those of the ECB. Panel discussion Bank of Canada conference on Unconventional Monetary
DG TAXUD. STAT/11/100 1 July 2011
DG TAXUD STAT/11/100 1 July 2011 Taxation trends in the European Union Recession drove EU27 overall tax revenue down to 38.4% of GDP in 2009 Half of the Member States hiked the standard rate of VAT since
The euro area bank lending survey. Third quarter of 2018
The euro area bank lending survey Third quarter of 218 October 218 Contents Introduction 2 1 Overview of results 3 Box 1 General notes 5 2 Developments in credit standards, terms and conditions, and net
World Economic Outlook
World Economic Outlook Marco E. Terrones Assistant to the Director Research Department, IMF May 2012 The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those
T5-Europe The Jus Semper Global Alliance 01/09/16 1 6
Table-T5 Living-Wage-Gap and Equalisation analysis (vis-à-vis the U.S.) for all employed in the manufacturing sector in PPP for private consumption terms 1996-2015 (Europe) Beginning with the 2012 living-wage
No. 3 BANK OF RUSSIA FOREIGN EXCHANGE ASSET MANAGEMENT REPORT. Moscow
No. 3 2015 FOREIGN EXCHANGE ASSET MANAGEMENT REPORT Moscow Bank of Russia Foreign Exchange Asset Management Report 2015 Reference to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is mandatory in case of reproduction.
The structural decline in the Eurozone s growth potential
Economic & Financial Analysis Economics 19 March 2018 Eurozone The structural decline in the Eurozone s growth potential What s really going on and what it means for policy, politics and central banks
An interim assessment
What is the economic outlook for OECD countries? An interim assessment Paris, 8 September 2011 11h00 Paris time Pier Carlo Padoan OECD Chief Economist and Deputy Secretary-General Activity has come close
Macroeconomic Impact of the Subprime Crisis
Franco German Council of Economic Advisors Paris, 5 February 2008 Dr. Stefan Kooths DIW Berlin, Macro Analysis and Forecasting Approach Assuming a strictly macroeconomic point of view - Thinking in aggregates
Treatment of maturity in FISIM calculations
Meeting of the Task Force on Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM) New York, 5-6 July 2011 DC2 Building 16th Floor Conference Room (DC2-1684) Treatment of maturity in FISIM calculations
Euro-QE at the end of the road for now
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.8 2.6 2.1 3.21 1.17 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
Fiscal policy in Europe: What is the appropriate stance?
Fiscal policy in Europe: What is the appropriate stance? Gernot Müller (U Bonn and CEPR) ETLA fiscal policy seminar Helsinki, October 16, 212 Fiscal stance in Europe Estimating multipliers Fiscal policy
Cyclical Convergence and Divergence in the Euro Area
Cyclical Convergence and Divergence in the Euro Area Presentation by Val Koromzay, Director for Country Studies, OECD to the Brussels Forum, April 2004 1 1 I. Introduction: Why is the issue important?
EMPLOYMENT RATE IN EU-COUNTRIES 2000 Employed/Working age population (15-64 years)
EMPLOYMENT RATE IN EU-COUNTRIES 2 Employed/Working age population (15-64 years EU-15 Denmark Netherlands Great Britain Sweden Portugal Finland Austria Germany Ireland Luxembourg France Belgium Greece Spain
The ECB's drive to build purchased assets
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.6 2.5 1.9 2.86 1.11 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
The ECB's drive to build purchased assets
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.8 2.6 2. 3.1 1.11 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord
Euro-QE at the end of the road for now
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.9 2.6 2.1 3.16 1.15 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
52 ECB. The 2015 Ageing Report: how costly will ageing in Europe be?
Box 7 The 5 Ageing Report: how costly will ageing in Europe be? Europe is facing a demographic challenge. The old age dependency ratio, i.e. the share of people aged 65 or over relative to the working
2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch
2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch December 3 rd 2015 Jim Power Global Background US & UK growing at reasonable pace Euro Zone growing well below potential Emerging markets in some
OECD Interim Economic Projections Real GDP 1 Percentage change September 2015 Interim Projections. Outlook
ass Interim Economic Outlook 16 September 2015 Puzzles and uncertainties Global growth prospects have weakened slightly and become less clear in recent months. World trade growth has stagnated and financial
The euro area bank lending survey. Fourth quarter of 2017
The euro area bank lending survey Fourth quarter of 217 January 218 Contents Introduction 2 1 Overview of the results 3 Box 1 General notes 4 2 Developments in credit standards, terms and conditions, and
At the end of this report, we summarize some important Year-End Considerations which employers should be prepared to address.
Global Report December 2009 Retirement Plan Accounting Assumptions at 2009 This report supplements our June 2009 Global Report, which presented the results of Hewitt Associates global survey of 2008 year-end
Europe s Response to the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Christophe Frankel, CFO of EFSF ICMA Conference, Milan 24 May 2012
Europe s Response to the Sovereign Debt Crisis Christophe Frankel, CFO of EFSF ICMA Conference, Milan 24 May 2012 The reasons for sovereign debt crisis 1 Member States did not fully accept the political
Euro area competitiveness developments
Euro area competitiveness developments La competitivité belge. Analyses et enjeux Bureau fédéral du Plan Brussels, 17 November 2009 Reinhard Felke Head of Unit the economy of the euro area and EMU DG ECFIN,
Summary. Economic Update 1 / 7 December 2017
Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global Strengthening of the pickup in global growth, with GDP expected to increase 2.9% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2018. 3 Eurozone The eurozone recovery is upholding
Macroeconomic Policies in Europe: Quo Vadis A Comment
Macroeconomic Policies in Europe: Quo Vadis A Comment February 12, 2016 Helene Schuberth Outline Staff Projection of the Euro Area Monetary Policy Investment Rebalancing in the euro area Fiscal Policy
Auditor s involvement in the contributions to the Single Resolution Fund. Providing assurance for 2014 and 2015 SURVEY
Auditor s involvement in the contributions to the Single Resolution Fund Providing assurance for 2014 and 2015 SURVEY AUDIT & ASSURANCE SEPTEMBER 2016 HIGHLIGHTS This survey demonstrates divergence across
I. Economic outlook. Economic outlook, challenges and policies. Setting the right course for economic policy
Setting the right course for economic policy Annual Report - German Council of Economic Experts Volker Wieland GCEE Member and IMFS, Goethe University Frankfurt Municipal Guarantee Board, Helsinki, December
BANK LENDING SURVEY Results for Portugal January 2017
BANK LENDING SURVEY Results for Portugal January 2017 I. Overall assessment According to the results of the January survey conducted on the five banking groups included in the Portuguese sample, credit
When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises
When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles, and Crises Òscar Jordà *, Moritz Schularick and Alan M. Taylor *Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and U.C. Davis, Free University of Berlin, and University
CANADA S LABOUR MARKET PRE- AND POST-CRISIS
CANADA S LABOUR MARKET PRE- AND POST-CRISIS WILLIAM ROBSON PRESIDENT AND CEO, C.D. HOWE INSTITUTE PRESENTATION TO THE NERO MEETING AT THE OECD 20 JUNE 2011 CANADA S LABOUR MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Decent Top-Level
April 2015 Fiscal Monitor
International Monetary Fund April 17, 2015 April 2015 Fiscal Monitor Now is the Time: Fiscal Policies for Sustainable Growth Xavier Debrun Deputy Chief, Fiscal Policy and Surveillance, Fiscal Affairs Department
Investment and Investment Finance. the EU and the Polish story. Debora Revoltella
Investment and Investment Finance the EU and the Polish story Debora Revoltella Director - Economics Department EIB Warsaw 27 February 2017 Narodowy Bank Polski European Investment Bank Contents We look
European Bond Spreads, Yield Curves And Volatility
European Bond Spreads, Yield Curves And Volatility A client posed the question a few years ago during one of the many rolling sovereign credit crises then roiling the Eurozone as to when the whole thing
Zenith Monthly Economic Report December 2011
Zenith Monthly Economic Report December 211 ECONOMIC STATISTICS SUMMARY Cash Rate Inflation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) GDP Annual Growth (%) Country Latest Last Change Latest Change Latest Change Past
Fiscal Policies for Innovation and Growth
Fiscal Policies for Innovation and Growth CARLOS MULAS-GRANADOS INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ECFIN WORKSHOP JANUARY 24TH, 2016 1 Outline Growth: Three a state of alert pillars of innovation: a role for
Thoughts and Concerns: 1) During the July to September quarter the financial turmoil surrounding Greece and Europe increased in its intensity.
Thoughts and Concerns: 1) During the July to September quarter the financial turmoil surrounding Greece and Europe increased in its intensity. In an effort to support the European banking system (and indirectly
Impact of Greece Debt Crisis on World Economy
Impact of Greece Debt Crisis on World Economy Kovid Kumar Gupta 1 kovid.gupta@gmail.com Abstract This study aims at exploring the reasons behind the Greece debt crisis that emerged in the 21 st century
Prof. Charles Calomiris Prof. Jordi Gual James D. Wolfensohn Introduction & M.C.: Prof. Pedro Videla
Prof. Charles Calomiris Columbia Business School Prof. Jordi Gual IESE and Chief Economist, La Caixa James D. Wolfensohn Former President, World Bank Introduction & M.C.: Prof. Pedro Videla IESE Business
Fiscal Policy, Budget Deficits and the Economic Crisis. Lars Calmfors Intermediate macroeconomics Stockholm, 30 March 2010
Fiscal Policy, Budget Deficits and the Economic Crisis Lars Calmfors Intermediate macroeconomics Stockholm, 30 March 2010 Three lines of defence against the economic crisis 1. Measures to deal with the
Online Appendixes to Missing Disinflation and Missing Inflation: A VAR Perspective
Online Appendixes to Missing Disinflation and Missing Inflation: A VAR Perspective Elena Bobeica and Marek Jarociński European Central Bank Author e-mails: elena.bobeica@ecb.int and marek.jarocinski@ecb.int.
Modelling the sovereign debt crisis in Europe
Modelling the sovereign debt crisis in Europe National Institute Global Econometric Model Dawn Holland October 211 Project LINK Meeting on the World Economy National Institute of Economic and Social Research
1 The real effects of credit constraints. Prepared by Miguel García-Posada
Articles 1 The real effects of credit constraints Prepared by Miguel García-Posada This article reviews the existing literature on financial constraints and their effect on investment. It also provides
Investment in Germany and the EU
Investment in Germany and the EU Pedro de Lima Head of the Economics Studies Division Economics Department Berlin 19/12/2016 11/01/2017 1 Slow recovery of investment, with strong heterogeneity Overall
Where is the European household sector in the deleveraging cycle?
ANGELO FIORANTE 1 Where is the European household sector in the deleveraging cycle? Angelo Fiorante 1 ECRI Commentary No. 10, 11 May 2012 One of many uncertainties still hanging over Europe s economic
Review and Outlook. Review of 2011 and Outlook for the Coming Year
Review and Outlook Review of 2011 and Outlook for the Coming Year Overview Review of world economy in 2011 Review of world markets in 2011 Review of Eurozone conditions i and implications for investment
Outlook to Finnish Economy
Member of the Board Marja Nykänen Bank of Finland Outlook to Finnish Economy Estonia / Finland 200 seminar, Tallinn 1.11.2017 Unrestricted 1 Finland has gone through an extraordinary decade Country specific
The Global Economy Heightened Risks
The Global Economy Heightened Risks RISI Latin American Conference 16 August, 2016 David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot A Two-Track World 2. Latin America Some Improvement
Falling Short of Expectations? Stress-Testing the European Banking System
Falling Short of Expectations? Stress-Testing the European Banking System Viral V. Acharya (NYU Stern, CEPR and NBER) and Sascha Steffen (ESMT) January 2014 1 Falling Short of Expectations? Stress-Testing
The Outlook for the European and the German Economy
The Outlook for the European and the German Economy Annual Economic Forum of the German American Chamber of Commerce Chicago January 26, 2012 Joachim Scheide, Kiel Institute for the World Economy Once
Cross-country risk-sharing in the EMU:
Cross-country risk-sharing in the EMU: Current mechanism and new proposals Cinzia Alcidi FIRSTRUN CONFERENCE Fiscal Rules, Stabilization and Risk-Sharing in the EMU Helsinki, 3 October, 2017 CEPS_thinktank