CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT

Transcription

1 CREDIT UNION TRENDS REPORT CUNA Mutual Group Economics January 214 (November 2 data) Highlights Note: Benchmark revisions were minimal and did not change overall trends. The CU count is down 286 during the past year and is now 6,83. We are forecasting a moderate acceleration in consolidation, averaging 3 CUs per year through 216. Since the Q3 2 peak, savings and asset growth rates continue to decline. Savings growth of 4.3% is the lowest in almost two years, despite record membership gains. Total assets hit $1.9 trillion, up $47 billion (4.5%) since November 2. Savings and assets are highly concentrated with 52% of assets and 61% of asset growth coming from the 2 CUs (3.1% of all CUs) with assets in excess of $1 billion. Annual loan growth moved up to 6.7%, the highest level in almost five years. Gains in vehicle loans and fixed-rate 1 st mortgages accounted for 87% of the $41 billion annual gain. Expect annual gains to average 7.% through 216 with a balance of consumer and real estate secured lending. Q3 data revisions cut previous membership estimates by 651, or.7 percentage points, but annual gains were still 2.4 million. Currently, total CU membership stands at 98.3 million. After revisions to capital, savings, assets and loans, the net effect on key ratios was minimal and did not change overall trends. The capital-toasset ratio finished November at.4%, unchanged during the past year. A loan-to-share ratio of 69.8% reflects an improvement of 159 basis points from November 2. The loan delinquency rate held fractionally below 1.%, a 15 basis point improvement from last year. ENVIRONMENT It was a busy few weeks following last month s Credit Union Trends Report. Third quarter U.S. economic growth was revised up to a robust 4.1%. Labor market conditions continued their trend of steady improvement. The Federal Reserve eased off the gas pedal and began tapering the QE 3 asset purchases. More importantly, the financial markets didn t overreact. Consumers are reasonably upbeat and interest rate and inflation indicators remain subdued. The U.S. economy has positive momentum and is expected to be a plus for continued CU growth and financial performance in 214. CUs will be a key component in broadening and strengthening our modest economic recovery. With Janet Yellen set to take the reins at the Federal Reserve, monetary policy should not be an issue in 214. The true risks are in fiscal policy (tax / spend) and regulatory uncertainty on almost all fronts. Total Lending CUNA s data revisions based on Q3 2 NCUA Call Reports subtracted $1.6 billion from previous loan portfolio estimates, primarily used vehicle loans. Annual growth was restated.3 percentage points (pp) lower. Even with the negative revisions, the improving growth rate trend for CU loans, shown by the bars in Figure 1 is impressive. The 6.7% annual gain represents $41 billion in additional loans on the books. It is the highest growth rate in almost five years and is basis points (bp) above its -year average. The $19 billion gain in vehicle loans accounted for 46% of the increase, followed by fixed-rate 1 st mortgages up $17 billion and contributing 41% of the loan portfolio gain. All major loan portfolio sub-segments contributed to the gain, with the exception of home equity loans and 2 nd mortgages. Interest rate risk management and fixed-rate 1 st mortgage retention strategies will play a big role in the final 2 growth results. While final gains may pull back from current levels, we are forecasting annual growth to average 7.% through 216. Member business loans (MBLs -7.% of all loans) are up just $2.2 billion (5.%) and accounted for % of total CU loan growth Figure 1 Loan Growth Trends November 2 Total Loans Vehicle Loans Real Estate Secured Loans.4% 6.7% 5.4%

2 Credit Union Consumer Installment Credit (CUCIC) CUCIC was restated $.6 billion lower following Q3 2 revisions. This subtracted.3 pp from previous growth estimates. At almost $264 billion, CUCIC is up $21 billion year-over-year or 8.7%, as shown by the blue line in Figure 2. Since its cyclical low in March 2, CUCIC is up 21% with 46% of the increase generated in the last months. During the last year, vehicle loan portfolio gains accounted for 89% of the CUCIC increase, credit cards %, unsecured 9%, and other was down for the year. Annual CU credit card growth finished November at 6.4% versus annual growth in the rest of the market of.9%. The CU share of $834 billion credit card market is up 17 bp to 5.%. Figure 2 also shows a growth comparison with the rest of the market (see red dashed line). CUs have clearly outperformed the broader market, accounting for almost % of all growth. This above market performance helped CUs increase their share of this $3.1 trillion lending arena to 8.6%, up 21 bp from November 2. If you exclude CUs contribution and the $4 billion (18.7%) increase in Government Student Loans (GSLs), the growth trend for traditional CIC shows minimal improvement (see green line). Growth in Consumer Installment Credit November 2 CUs 8.7% 8 4 Total Market Excl. CUs 5.9% -4 Total Market Excl. CUs & GSLs 2.1% -8-9 Figure 2 Vehicle Loans Data revisions subtracted $1.5 billion from previous portfolio estimates and cut previous growth estimates by.8 pp. Roughly 85% of this downward revision was in used vehicle loans. While down from an amazing.3% reported last month, revised data through November has the total portfolio up $18.8 billion or.4%, as shown in the left graphic of Figure 3. During the past year, gains in vehicle loans accounted for 46% of all CU loan growth. Vehicle loans now equal 3.6% of all CU loans, the highest level since October 29. Data revisions cut 1.1 pp from previous used vehicle portfolio growth estimates and.3 pp from the new. While down fractionally from previous reports, the overall growth momentum remains intact, as highlighted by the trend lines shown in the right graphic of Figure 3. Expect continued strong vehicle loan portfolio growth in 214. Vehicle Lending Growth Comparisons Annual Growth CU New vs. Used Vehicle November % 5 New.4% Used 9.9% Figure 3 2 Credit Union Trends Report

3 Real Estate-Secured Lending 1 st Mortgages and Other Real Estate Data revisions for all components of real estate secured (RE) loans were fractionally negative, but did not impact trends. CUs finished November holding $343 billion in member RE loans. This reflects a year-over-year gain of $17.7 billion (5.4%). This is a significant improvement from full-year 2 results, as shown by the right-most bars in Figure 4. RE loans now equal almost 53% of all CU loans and accounted for 43% of all CU loan growth since November 2. Figure 4 shows all subcomponents of the RE loan portfolio outperforming 2 results. The combined gains in fixed and adjustable-rate 1 st mortgages accounted for 54% of all CU loan growth since November 2, and the 8.9% growth rate is the best since mid-29. The $16.9 billion gain in fixed-rate 1 st mortgage holdings accounted for 96% of all RE loan growth and 41% of total loan growth. At $192 billion, fixed-rate 1 st mortgages equal 29% of all loans. The drag from home equity / 2 nd mortgage loan declines is lessening, and home equity loans are actually up in each of the past two months. CU Real Estate Loan Portfolio Growth by Loan Class Figure November 2 - November Fixed Rate 1st's Adj. Rate 1st's Home Equity Seconds Total RE Figure 4 Surplus Funds (Cash + Investments) Surplus funds were restated $3.1 billion (.8%) lower following the Q3 2 benchmark data revisions. Roughly 38% of this reduction was attributable to the lower estimate (-$1.2 billion) for borrowings. Despite the downward data revision, surplus funds finished November at almost $394 billion, up $1.1 billion (.3%) from November 2. The deposit surge from the fifth payroll Friday in November boosted surplus funds $5.3 billion (1.3%) during the month. Currently, surplus funds equal 36.1% of assets. While down from its peak earlier in the year, the surplus funds-toassets ratio remains 4.7 pp above the average of the previous years. Stronger loan portfolio growth is needed to bring this measure down to historical norms. CU borrowings are up $2.5 billion (8.9%) year-over-year. At $3.2 billion, borrowings equal 2.8% of assets. Most of this increase is attributable to Federal Home Loan Bank borrowings used to hedge 1 st mortgage loan portfolio expansion. Savings and Assets CUNA s data revisions reduced previous savings and asset growth estimates.2 pp and.3 pp respectively. The yearover-year growth trend shown in Figure 5 indicates savings (bars) and asset (line) growth slowing since September 2. In the 14 months following the growth peak, CUs added 2.3 million members, but rates paid on deposits fell 7%- 14%. Deposit pricing continues to be the primary tool used to control savings growth. Consistently falling deposit yields since the beginning of the recession (January 28) caused a 219 bp or 79% reduction in CUs cost-of-funds. This enabled CUs to significantly reduce loan rates and yet continue earning a positive spread. November data show savings up 4.3% year-over-year despite the $7.3 billion payroll related surge during the month. Regular shares are up almost $25 billion year-over-year. This portfolio segment represents about 34% of all deposits, but accounted for almost 65% of all deposit growth. The national average rate paid on regular shares was.22% at the end of November, down % from its prior year level. Share drafts (.22% yield) accounted for 28% of annual deposit growth, money market accounts (.34% yield) added 2%, and CDs (1-Yr. CD yield =.78%) declined 2.3% ($4.7 billion) since November 2. CUs finished November with $1.9 trillion in total assets. This reflects a $47 billion (4.5%) increase during the past months. Please note: CU assets and asset growth are highly concentrated. A look at detailed Q3 2 data shows the 2 CUs with assets in excess of $1 billion (3.1% of all CUs) hold 52% of industry assets and accounted for approximately 61% of all asset growth between Q3 2 Q Credit Union Trends Report

4 Growth In Credit Union Savings & Assets Savings Assets November 2 November 2 Savings = 4.3% Assets = 4.5% 9 Figure 5 Capital and Other Key Measures After quarterly benchmark data revisions, CU industry capital was restated $.8 billion lower. While this restatement reduced previous growth estimates by.8 pp, overall trends were not adversely impacted. Total CU capital reached $3 billion in November, up $4.7 billion (4.3%) from the prior year. The industry capital-toasset (C/A) ratio came in at.4% (see red line in the left graphic of Figure 6), basically unchanged during the past year. Data revisions had a fractionally negative impact on the loan-to-share (L/S) ratio, but the payroll related share surge in November had a bigger impact. At 69.8%, the L/S ratio declined 34 bp during the month (see the blue line in the left graphic of Figure 6), but this key lending measure is up 159 bp over the past year. While improved, the L/S ratio remains.6 percentage points below its pre-recession level. The loan delinquency rate (loans two or more months delinquent as a percent of total loans outstanding) was not measurably impacted by data revisions. At its current level of.997% it has help below 1% for two consecutive months and is 15 bp below its November 2 level, as shown in the right graphic of Figure 6. As the economy/employment continues to improve and CUs add more freshly underwritten loans to their books, further improvements are expected. We caution: if this key credit quality indicator moves much lower it may indicate too tight of credit underwriting. CUs could be leaving risk-adjusted spread income on the table by not lending to members with lower credit scores. Credit Union Key Ratios and Delinquency Trends November 2 Key Ratios L/S = 69.8% C/A =.4% Loan Delinquency Rate.997% %.5 Year Average 1.152% 8 Capital-to-Asset (Right Scale). 1.5% % Loan-to-Share (Left Scale) %.% 9 Figure 6 4 Credit Union Trends Report

5 Credit Unions and Members Third quarter data revisions reduced previous market count estimates by just one CU. The net result is the CU count fell to 6,83 at the end of November. This reflects a net decline of 24 CUs through the first eleven months of 2. Figure 7 shows the current consolidation rate 17 CUs (8%) above the average of the previous four years. On an annual basis, the net loss is 286 CUs or 34 CUs (%) above its four-year average and just five CUs below our forecast. Through the first two months of the fourth quarter, CUNA estimates show a loss of 34 CUs and NCUA s reports indicate approved mergers of 41 CUs. When the final numbers are in, we expect to finish 2 with a CU count just below 6,8. We are also forecasting a moderate acceleration in market contraction. Expect annual consolidation rates to average 3 through 216. This forecast is based on current levels of and trends in regulatory burdens. Should regulatory market conditions become more onerous, the annual net loss of CUs will move significantly higher. Year-to-Date Declines in Credit Union Counts November # of Credit Unions Average Prior 4 Years = Figure 7 CUNA incorporated significant data revisions into its November report. To true up data with the NCUA s 53 Call Reports, membership estimates were reduced by 651, in September. This reduction cut previous growth estimates by.7 pp. Despite this major downward data revision, the YTD gain of 2.3 million is 514, above YTD 2 results, as shown in Figure 8 and 55, above full-year 2 results. At the end of November, CUNA s estimate for total CU memberships was a healthy 98.3 million. This reflects a 2.4 million member increase from November 2. We expect final 2 results close to current levels. Our forecast calls for annual membership gains to average 1.% during the next three years, versus the 2.% average generated during the previous three years. Month-Only Membership Gains November 2 = 98.3 Million Members ( s) Mln. YTD Mln. YTD Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Figure Credit Union Trends Report

6 National Monthly Credit Union Aggregates CAPITAL/ ($ Billions) (Millions) CREDIT LOAN / ASSET YR/MO LOANS ASSETS SAVINGS CAPITAL MEMBERS UNIONS SAVINGS RATIO , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Credit Union Growth Rates Change Previous Year # OF CUs Delinquency YR/MO LOANS ASSETS SAVINGS CAPITAL MEMBERS # OF CUs DECLINE Ratio* (2.9) (222) 1.61% (3.2) (246) 1.64% (3.2) (246) 1.586% (3.6) (272) 1.492% (3.7) (278) 1.445% (3.6) (274) 1.373% (3.6) (267) 1.287% (3.6) (266) 1.198% (3.9) (289) 1.175% (3.9) (287) 1.18% (3.9) (293) 1.172% (4.) (298) 1.9% (3.7) (275) 1.143% (3.8) (281) 1.153% (3.8) (282) 1.7% (3.6) (26) 1.81% (3.7) (27) 1.% (3.6) (261) 1.1% (3.5) (252) 1.2% (4.) (289) 1.33% (4.) (289) 1.2% (3.9) (282) 1.18% (3.9) (28) 1.% (3.9) (28).996% (4.) (286).997% * Loans two or more months delinquent as a percent of total loans. 6 Credit Union Trends Report

7 Distribution of Credit Union Loans Estimated $ (Billions) Outstanding 1 ST TOT. OTHR TOTAL TOTAL NEW USED TOTAL UNSEC CREDIT MORT MORT REAL YR/MO LOANS VEHICLE LOANS Ex. CC S CARDS CUCIC TOTAL 2 ND +HE ESTATE MBLs* * Member Business Loans Distribution of Credit Union Loans Change From Prior Year 1 ST TOT. OTHR TOTAL TOTAL NEW USED TOTAL UNSEC CREDIT MORT MORT REAL YR/MO LOANS VEHICLE LOANS Ex. CC S CARDS CUCIC TOTAL 2 ND +HE ESTATE MBLs*.6 (8.7) 4.9 (.4) (1.1) 4. (7.1) (7.4) (.2) 4.2 (7.1) (6.5) (7.4) (5.6) (7.5) (4.) (7.7) (2.4) (7.9) (.8) (8.2) (8.2) (7.7) (8.) (8.3) (7.9) (7.4) (8.1) (7.7) (7.4) 1.8 (3.4) (7.5) (7.2) (7.2) (7.1) (7.) (6.8) (6.1) 4.4 (.8) (5.9) (5.6) Credit Union Trends Report

8 15 5 Annual Growth Rates Total Loans & Installment Credit Total Loans CUCIC CU Loan Portfolio $ in Billions $615.1 $58.5 $587.4 $58.3 $587. $544.1 $5.1 $474.2 $428.6 $388.5 $ % 54.1% 56.7% 59.3% 59.6% 61.% 61.5% 6.3% 49.8% 44.9% 47.% $ % Nov CIC Other CIC Share of Total Loans at Credit Unions Consumer Installment Credit at Credit Unions 45 $ Billions This report on key CU indicators is based on data from CUNA E&S s Monthly Credit Union Estimates, the Federal Reserve Board, and CUNA Mutual Group Economics. To access this report on the Internet: Sign in at cunamutual.com Go to the Resource Library tab Under Publications heading, select Credit Union Trends Report If you have any questions, comments, or need additional information, please call. Thank you. Dave Colby , Ext dave.colby@cunamutual.com CUNA Mutual Group Economics CUNA Mutual Group, 214 All Rights Reserved. CUNA Mutual Group is the marketing name for CUNA Mutual Holding Company, a mutual insurance holding company, its subsidiaries and affiliates. 8 Credit Union Trends Report