SunTrust Auto Receivables Trust

Transcription

1 Presale: SunTrust Auto Receivables Trust Primary Credit Analyst: Jennie P Lam, New York (1) ; jennie.lam@standardandpoors.com Secondary Contact: Ines A Beato, New York (1) ; ines.beato@standardandpoors.com Table Of Contents Rationale Transaction Overview Transaction Structure Payment Structure Managed Portfolio Pool Analysis Standard & Poor's Expected Loss: 1.00% % Cash Flow Modeling Assumptions And Results Sensitivity Analysis Money Market Tranche Legal Final Maturity SunTrust Bank JUNE 11,

2 Table Of Contents (cont.) Standard & Poor's 17g-7 Disclosure Report Related Criteria And Research JUNE 11,

3 Presale: SunTrust Auto Receivables Trust This presale report is based on information as of June 11, The ratings shown are preliminary. This report does not constitute a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell securities. Subsequent information may result in the assignment of final ratings that differ from the preliminary ratings. Preliminary Ratings As Of June 11, 2015 Class Preliminary rating (i) Type Interest rate Preliminary amount (Mil. $) Legal final maturity date A-1 A-1+ (sf) Senior Fixed June 15, 2016 A-2 AAA (sf) Senior Fixed June 15, 2018 A-3 AAA (sf) Senior Fixed Sept. 16, 2019 A-4 AAA (sf) Senior Fixed Jan. 15, 2021 B AA+ (sf) Subordinate Fixed Feb. 15, 2021 C A+ (sf) Subordinate Fixed April 15, 2021 D BBB (sf) Subordinate Fixed Jan. 16, 2023 (i) The rating on each class of securities is preliminary and subject to change at any time. Profile Expected closing date June 25, 2015 Collateral Prime auto loan receivables Sponsor, servicer, originator, and administrator SunTrust Bank (A-/Stable/A-2) Depositor SunTrust Auto Receivables LLC Issuing entity SunTrust Auto Receivables Trust Indenture trustee U.S. Bank N.A. Owner trustee Wilmington Trust N.A. Lead underwriter Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC Credit Enhancement Summary (%) (i) --STAT Initial Target Floor Class A Subordination Overcollateralization Reserve account Total Class B Subordination Overcollateralization Reserve account Total JUNE 11,

4 Credit Enhancement Summary (%) (i) (cont.) Class C Subordination Overcollateralization Reserve account Total Class D Subordination Overcollateralization Reserve account Total Estimated annual excess spread Initial aggregate receivables balance ($) 1,005,530, Total securities issued ($) 1,005,530, (i) Percentage of the initial pool balance. STAT--SunTrust Auto Receivables Trust. Rationale The preliminary ratings assigned to SunTrust Auto Receivables Trust 's (STAT 's) asset-backed notes reflect our view of: The availability of approximately 8.0%, 6.7%, 4.7%, and 2.5% credit support (including excess spread) for the class A, B, C, and D notes, respectively, based on our various stressed cash flow scenarios. These credit support levels provide coverage of approximately 5.0x, 4.5x, 3.33x, and 2.0x our 1.00%-1.10% expected cumulative net loss range for the class A, B, C, and D notes, respectively (see the Cash Flow Modeling section for details). The timely interest and principal payments made under stress cash flow modeling scenarios that are appropriate to the assigned preliminary ratings. The expectation that under a moderate ('BBB') stress scenario, all else being equal, the ratings on the class A and B notes will remain within one rating category of the assigned preliminary ratings during the first year, and the ratings on the class C and D notes will remain within two rating categories of the assigned preliminary ratings during the first year. This is within the rating tolerance for our 'AAA (sf)', 'AA+ (sf)', 'A+ (sf)', and 'BBB (sf)' rated securities, as outlined in our credit stability criteria (see "Methodology: Credit Stability Criteria," published May 3, 2010). The credit enhancement in the form of subordination, overcollateralization, a reserve account, and excess spread (see the Credit Enhancement Summary table above for details). The characteristics of the collateral pool being securitized. The transaction's payment and legal structures. Transaction Overview SunTrust Auto Receivables Trust (STAT ) is SunTrust Bank's inaugural prime auto loan issuance. The securitization pool will consist of SunTrust Bank-originated retail installment sales contracts secured by new and used automobiles and light-duty trucks. STAT will issue four classes of senior notes and three classes of subordinate notes totaling $1.0 billion. All classes will be issued as fixed-rate notes. JUNE 11,

5 The transaction is structured as a true sale of the receivables from SunTrust Trust (the originator) to SunTrust Auto Receivables LLC (the depositor). The depositor will transfer the receivables to STAT (the issuing entity). The issuing entity will grant a first-priority perfected security interest to the securitized assets to the indenture trustee for the benefit of the noteholders (see Chart 1 for the transaction structure). Interest and principal on the notes are scheduled to be paid on the 15th day of each month, beginning July 15, The issuer expects the notes to have a fixed interest rate and principal to be paid sequentially. In rating this transaction, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services will review the legal matters that it believes are relevant to its analysis, as outlined in its criteria. Transaction Structure STAT incorporates the following structural features: JUNE 11,

6 A sequential-pay mechanism that will result in increased credit enhancement for the senior notes as the pool amortizes; Subordination of 6.05%, 4.65%, and 2.65% for the class A, B, and C notes, respectively; Overcollateralization that is initially 0.00% of the initial collateral balance and builds to a target level of 0.75% of the initial collateral balance, where it will be maintained; and A nonamortizing reserve account that equals 0.25% of the initial collateral balance and will be fully funded at closing. Payment Structure On each payment date, except after note acceleration following an event of default, available funds on deposit in the collection account will be distributed according to the priority in Table 1. Table 1 Payment Waterfall Priority Payment 1 The 1.00% annual servicing fee and all unpaid servicing fees for any previous periods 2 Class A note interest, pro rata 3 First allocation of principal (the amount by which the class A note balance exceeds the pool balance), if any 4 Class B note interest 5 Second allocation of principal (the amount by which the sum of the class A and B note balances exceeds the pool balance), if any 6 Class C note interest 7 Third allocation of principal (the amount by which the sum of the class A, B, and C note balances exceeds the pool balance), if any. 8 Class D note interest. 9 Fourth allocation of principal (the amount by which the sum of the class A, B, C, and D note balances exceeds the pool balance), if any 10 Reserve account deposit, if any, up to its required amount 11 Regular allocation of principal (i) 12 Any unpaid amounts or expenses due to the owner trustee and indenture trustee 13 Any unpaid amounts due to the administrator 14 Any remaining amounts to the certificateholders (i) The regular allocation of principal is designed to build the overcollateralization to the target amount, which is 0.75% of the initial collateral balance. Events of default The occurrence and continuation of any of the following events will constitute an event of default: A default in the interest payment on the senior-most class of notes that continues for five business days or more; A default in the principal payment on any note on its final scheduled payment date or redemption date; Failure by the issuing entity to observe or perform any material covenants or agreements in the indenture for 90 days after receipt of notice; Any representation or warranty of the issuing entity made in the indenture proves to be incorrect in any material respect and remains uncured for 90 days after receipt of notice; or The issuing entity becomes bankrupt or insolvent. JUNE 11,

7 The third and fourth items above require notice from the indenture trustee or the holders of at least a majority of the outstanding note balance of the senior-most class. If the issuer defaults on a payment as described in the first and second items above or becomes bankrupt or insolvent and the notes are accelerated, the payment priority will change such that after paying amounts due to the indenture trustee, owner trustee, servicer, and the class A interest amount, principal payments will be made first to the class A-1 noteholders until the class A-1 notes are paid in full. Next, the class A-2, A-3, and A-4 noteholders will receive principal payments, pro rata, until all the remaining class A notes are paid in full. Then interest and principal payments will be made sequentially to the class B, C, and D noteholders. If the notes' acceleration resulted from an event of default related to the issuer's breach of a covenant, representation, or warranty, after required amounts are paid to the indenture trustee, owner trustee, the servicer, and the class A note interest amount, then amounts will be paid to class B note interest, then class C note interest, and then class D note interest. Then principal payments will be made to the class A-1 noteholders until the class A-1 notes are paid in full. Next, principal payments will be made to the class A-2, A-3, and A-4 noteholders, pro rata, until they are all paid in full. Finally, principal payments will be made sequentially to the class B, C, and D noteholders, in each case until the class is paid in full. Managed Portfolio As of March 31, 2015, SunTrust Bank's managed retail auto portfolio was approximately $9.6 billion. As of March 31, 2015, total delinquencies were 0.81% of the principal balance outstanding, up from 0.69% as of March 31, SunTrust Bank has been experiencing a moderate increase in its total delinquencies since However, in our view, the rise in delinquencies appears to be in the early to mid-stage (30-59 days), and delinquencies in the later stages are stable (see Table 2). Annualized net charge-offs for the three months ended March 31, 2015, were 0.53%, an increase from 0.36% for the same period a year earlier. Net charge-offs for the year ended Dec. 31, 2014, increased to 0.40% from 0.31% for the year ended Dec. 31, As noted below, in August 2014, SunTrust implemented a change in its charge-off policy with respect to bankrupt accounts, resulting in an increase in the charge-off rate for the three months ended March 31, 2015, and the year ended Dec. 31, 2014, compared with the same periods a year earlier. The first-quarter 2015 net charge-offs also included write-offs for fraud losses. Table 2 SunTrust Bank-Managed Retail Auto Portfolio Principal balance of receivables outstanding (Mil. $) Delinquencies as a % of the principal balance of receivables outstanding (i) (ii) --Three months ended March Year ended Dec , , , , , , , days days or more days JUNE 11,

8 Table 2 SunTrust Bank-Managed Retail Auto Portfolio (cont.) Total delinquencies Average month end principal balance of receivables outstanding (Mil. $) Net charge-offs as a % of the average month end principal balance of receivables outstanding (iii) (iv) (v) 9, , , , , ,511,59 6, (i) SunTrust Bank considers a payment to be past due or delinquent when an obligor fails to make 90% or 95% (depending on product type) of the scheduled monthly payment by the related due date. SunTrust Bank measures delinquency by the number of days elapsed from the date a payment is due under the loan contract. (ii) Delinquencies include repossessions. (iii) Net charge-offs generally represent the total aggregate net outstanding balance of receivables determined to be uncollectible during the period less proceeds from the disposition of related vehicles but including amounts received from customers on previously charged-off accounts. (iv) Net charge-offs related to receivables outstanding at period end for three months ended March 31, 2015, and March 31, 2014, are annualized. (v) In August 2014, SunTrust Bank changed its policy for bankruptcy accounts to fully charge-off accounts that are 60 days past due. Prior to August 2014, SunTrust Bank did not charge-off 60 days past due accounts if there was reasonable belief that some payments would continue to be made. The change created an increase in the charge-offs recognized in late 2014 and first-quarter Without this policy change, the charge-off rate for 2014 would have been 0.34%. First-quarter 2015 net charge-offs also included $1.2 million of fraud losses. Without this policy change and fraud losses, the charge-off rate for first-quarter 2015 would have been 0.42%. Pool Analysis The STAT receivables pool as of the May 31, 2015, cut-off date consists of 39,967 auto loan contracts with an aggregate outstanding balance of $1,005,530,385 (see Table 3). The pool is geographically diverse and has a weighted average FICO score of 745, weighted average LTV ratio of %, and weighted average seasoning of approximately four months. About 46% of the loans are backed by new vehicles. The longest loan term is 84 months. Table 3 Collateral Characteristics (i) STAT Pool size (Mil. $) 1, No. of receivables 39,967 Avg. principal balance ($) 25,159 Weighted avg. APR (%) 4.14 Weighted avg. original term (mos.) Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) 4.13 Weighted avg. original FICO score 745 Weighted avg. LTV ratio (%)(ii) % of pool balance with an original term of months % of pool balance with an original term of months % of pool balance with an original term of months 5.92 New vehicles (%) Used vehicles (%) Top three state concentrations (%) Texas Florida Georgia JUNE 11,

9 Table 3 Collateral Characteristics (i) (cont.) (i) All percentages are of the initial receivables balance. (ii) The loan-to-value ratio (LTV) for a receivable secured by a new vehicle is equal to the original amount financed less back-end products financed divided by the dealer invoice price for that vehicle. The LTV for a receivable secured by a used vehicle is equal to the original amount financed less back-end products financed divided by the wholesale price for that vehicle as set forth in the applicable N.A.D.A. Official Used Car Guide. APR--Annual percentage rate. Standard & Poor's Expected Loss: 1.00% % To derive our base case loss for the STAT transaction, we analyzed SunTrust Bank's origination static pool net loss performance data on its retail auto loans since The data we received was on the aggregate portfolio as well as segmented by FICO (less than 700, , and ), LTV (<=100, >100), and original term (<=60, 61-72, 73-84), comprising 18 cohorts. We used 2008 performance data that had at least 72 months of performance to derive a loss timing curve with which to project on origination vintages that had at least 12 months of performance. A weighted average loss projection encompassing 2008 actual performance--up to and including 2013 projections--was derived. Our loss projection recognized the changes in origination trends post 2008, which included a decrease in losses since that time but also factored in the 2008 vintage, which experienced higher losses. In addition, we analyzed recent loss performance trends on newly originated vintages. We also compared the pool's collateral characteristics to peer auto loan-backed pools (see Table 5). Based on our analysis of the STAT pool's credit quality, the origination static pool analysis, our consideration of comparable pools from peer issuers, and our forward-looking view of the economy, we expect the STAT pool to experience a 1.00%-1.10% cumulative net loss. Table 5 Collateral Peer Comparison STAT BWSTA FITAT AART Pool size (Mil. $) 1, , , Avg. principal balance ($) 25,159 18,631 16,442 22,469 Weighted avg. APR (%) Weighted avg. FICO score Weighted avg. LTV ratio (%) Weighted avg. original term (mos.) Weighted avg. remaining term (mos.) Weighted avg. seasoning (mos.) % of pool balance with an original term greater than 60 months Maximum original loan term New vehicles (%) Used vehicles (%) Top three state concentrations (%) TX=19.4 CA=22.9 TX=9.5 TX=14.2 FL=19.3 TX=8.3 OH=8.9 CA=7.3 GA=10.2 AZ=7.5 PA=6.1 FL=7.2 JUNE 11,

10 Table 5 Collateral Peer Comparison (cont.) Expected CNL (%) STAT--SunTrust Auto Receivables Trust. BWSTA--Bank of the West Auto Trust. FITAT--Fifth Third Auto Trust. AART--Ally Auto Receivables Trust. APR--Annual percentage rate. LTV--Loan to value. CNL--Cumulative net loss. N/A--Not applicable. Cash Flow Modeling Assumptions And Results We modeled the transaction to simulate stress scenarios appropriate for the assigned preliminary ratings. To test the structure, we applied a front-loaded loss curve and a back-loaded loss curve, derived from SunTrust Bank's origination static pool loss timing experience (see Table 6). Our break-even net loss results were very similar under the scenarios. Table 6 Cash Flow Assumptions And Results Class A B C D Scenario (preliminary rating) AAA (sf) AA+ (sf) A+ (sf) BBB (sf) Cumulative loss timing by months (12/24/36/48) (%) Front-loaded loss curve 40/70/90/100 40/70/90/100 40/70/90/100 40/70/90/100 Back-loaded loss curve 27/64/85/95/100 26/63/84/94/100 26/62/82/92/100 26/62/82/92/100 Voluntary ABS (%) Recoveries (%) Recovery lag (mos.) Servicing fee (%) Approximate break-even net loss levels (%) (i) Front-loaded loss curve Back-loaded loss curve (i) The maximum cumulative net losses on the pool that the transaction can withstand without triggering a payment default on the relevant class of notes. ABS--Absolute prepayment speed. Under both the front-loaded and back-loaded loss curve scenarios, the break-even net loss results show that the available credit support for the class A, B, C, and D notes provides coverage appropriate for the assigned preliminary ratings. Sensitivity Analysis In addition to running break-even cash flows, we ran sensitivity scenarios to see how the ratings on the notes could be affected by losses that are moderately higher than what we currently expect. For these sensitivity scenarios, we also applied both front- and back-loaded loss curves (see Table 7 and Charts 2 and 3). Table 7 Sensitivity Analysis Summary--Moderate Loss Scenario (2.0x Base Case) Front-loaded loss curve Cumulative net loss level (%) 2.20 Cumulative loss timing by months outstanding (12/24/36/48) (%) 40/70/90/100 JUNE 11,

11 Table 7 Sensitivity Analysis Summary--Moderate Loss Scenario (2.0x Base Case) (cont.) Voluntary ABS (%) 1.50 Recoveries (%) 50 Recovery lag (mos.) 4 Servicing fee (%) 1.00 Haircut to excess spread (%) 10 Coverage of remaining losses Class A ('AAA (sf)') Class B ('AA+ (sf)') Class C ('A+ (sf)') Class D ('BBB (sf)') Initially 3.9x, grows to 5.9x by Month 12, and continues to grow Initially 3.2x, grows to 4.8x by Month 12, and continues to grow Initially 2.3x, grows to 3.3x by Month 12, and continues to grow Initially 1.1x, grows to 1.3x by Month 12, and continues to grow Back-loaded loss curve Cumulative net loss level (%) 2.20 Cumulative loss timing by months outstanding (12/24/36/48) (%) 26/61/82/91/100 Voluntary ABS (%) 1.50 Recoveries (%) 50 Recovery lag (mos.) 4 Servicing fee (%) 1.00 Haircut to excess spread (%) 10 Coverage of remaining losses Class A ('AAA (sf)') Class B ('AA+ (sf)') Class C ('A+ (sf)') Class D ('BBB (sf)') Initially 3.9x, grows to 4.9x by Month 12, and continues to grow Initially 3.2x, grows to 4.0x by Month 12, and then continues to grow Initially 2.3x, grows to 2.8x by Month 12, and then continues to grow Initially 1.1x, grows to 1.2x by Month 12, and continues to grow ABS--Absolute prepayment speed. JUNE 11,

12 Chart 2 JUNE 11,

13 Chart 3 The back-loaded loss timing scenario is generally more stressful than the front-loaded loss timing scenario because the slower loss curve allows excess spread to be used to pay down the notes such that the overcollateralization target of 0.75% of the initial pool balance is met by Month 9, thus allowing for excess spread releases from the transaction for seven months, amounting to approximately 0.07% of the initial pool balance. Under the front-loaded loss timing scenario, excess spread is not released from the transaction until all of the notes are fully repaid. In our view, under the 2.0x moderate stress scenarios, all else being equal, we expect our ratings on the class A and B notes to remain within one rating category of our preliminary 'AAA (sf)' and 'AA (sf)' ratings, respectively, and our ratings on the class C and D notes to remain within two rating categories of our preliminary 'A (sf)' and 'BBB (sf)' ratings during the first year. This is consistent with our credit stability criteria (for more information, see "Methodology: Credit Stability Criteria," May 3, 2010). Money Market Tranche The proposed legal final maturity date for the money market tranche (class A-1) is June 15, To test whether the money market tranche can be repaid by the proposed legal final date, we ran cash flows using assumptions to delay the principal collections during the 12-month period. In our cash flow runs, we assumed zero defaults and a JUNE 11,

14 absolute prepayment speed. Based on our cash flow runs, approximately 11 months of principal collections would be necessary to pay off the money market tranche. Legal Final Maturity To test the legal final maturity dates for the long-dated tranches (i.e., classes A-2, A-3, A-4, B, and C), we determined when the respective notes would fully amortize in a zero-loss, zero-prepayment scenario and then added three months to the result. We also looked to see when these notes were paid off in our break-even cash flow scenarios. In each of our cash flow scenarios, we confirmed that there is sufficient credit enhancement to both cover losses and repay the related notes in full by their legal final maturity dates. The legal final maturity date for the longest-dated security (class D) is based on the distribution date of the latest maturing loan plus at least six months. SunTrust Bank SunTrust Bank, a Georgia state-chartered bank, is a wholly owned indirect subsidiary of SunTrust Banks Inc., a Georgia corporation headquartered in Atlanta. SunTrust Bank is a member of the Federal Reserve System and is subject to regulation and examination by the Federal Reserve Board, the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance, the CFPB, and the FDIC. SunTrust Bank offers a full range of financial services to customers through its branches (located primarily in Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and the District of Columbia) and through other national delivery channels. SunTrust offers automotive consumer loan financing through approximately 4,000 active dealers in the U.S. SunTrust has been servicing motor vehicle receivables since Standard & Poor's 17g-7 Disclosure Report SEC Rule 17g-7 requires an NRSRO, for any report accompanying a credit rating relating to an asset-backed security as defined in the Rule, to include a description of the representations, warranties, and enforcement mechanisms available to investors and a description of how they differ from the representations, warranties, and enforcement mechanisms in issuances of similar securities. The Standard & Poor's 17g-7 Disclosure Report included in this credit rating report is available at Related Criteria And Research Related Criteria Methodology And Assumptions For Ratings Above The Sovereign--Single-Jurisdiction Structured Finance, May 29, 2015 Global Framework For Assessing Operational Risk In Structured Finance Transactions, Oct. 9, 2014 Counterparty Risk Framework Methodology and Assumptions, June 25, 2013 Global Investment Criteria For Temporary Investments In Transaction Accounts, May 31, JUNE 11,

15 General Methodology And Assumptions For Rating U.S. Auto Loan Securitizations, Jan. 11, 2011 Methodology: Credit Stability Criteria, May 3, 2010 Understanding Standard & Poor's Rating Definitions, June 3, 2009 Standard & Poor's Revises Criteria Methodology For Servicer Risk Assessment, May 28, 2009 Related Research SunTrust Banks Inc., Oct. 28, 2014 Global Structured Finance Scenario And Sensitivity Analysis: Understanding The Effects Of Macroeconomic Factors On Credit Quality, July 2, JUNE 11,

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