Macquarie Asia Infrastructure Conference Macau. 8-9 December 2008
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1 Macquarie Asia Infrastructure Conference Macau 8-9 December 2008
2 Our Road Map Today RBS, Project Finance. Infrastructure What is it? What s happened so far in 2008? What about the future? What about the credit crunch and what it means for Borrowers? Project Bonds. Conclusions. RBS
3 A Global Leader For an unprecedented third time in a row, RBS named Global Project Finance House by Euromoney Best Project Finance Financial Advisory Bank Petrochemical Transport EMEA Project Finance Loans Mandated Arrangers Project Finance Loans Bookrunner 1 st 1 st Best Project Finance Arranging Bank PFI/PPP Oil & Gas Transport Telecoms Project Finance Borrowers Survey 2007 Americas Project Finance Loans Mandated Arrangers Project Finance Loans Bookrunners 2 nd 1 st Asia Pacific Global Project Finance Loans Mandated Arrangers Project Finance Loans bookrunner Project Finance Loans Mandated Arrangers 1 st 1 st 12 th Source: Thomson Financial Q Best Project Finance House Euromoney Awards for Excellence 2008, 2007 & 2006 Trade and Project Finance House of the Year The Banker Investment Banking Awards 2007 & 2006 Global Bank Arranger Infrastructure Journal Awards March 2008 Global Bank of the Year 2007 PFI Awards December 2007 Best Arranger of Project Finance Euromoney Loan Awards February 2008 Oil & Gas Arranger of the Year Infrastructure Journal Awards March 2008 Oil & Gas Adviser of the Year Infrastructure Journal Awards March 2008 Bank of the Year Americas PFI Awards January 2007 Best at Project Finance Middle East Euromoney, Awards of Excellence July 2007 RBS
4 Infrastructure what is it? It means different things to different people but generally accepted to be:- 1. Utilities energy transmission & distribution, water treatment & distribution.and generation 2. Transport airports; toll roads; railways; ports 3. Social hospitals; schools; prisons & government facilities Infrastructure 4. PPP/PFI 5. Telecommunications 6. Leisure and Recreation RBS
5 What s happened in 2008 so far.
6 Infrastructure Loans by (Selected) Sector in APAC The top 5 Infrastructure sectors are set to out perform last year s loan amounts (Q3) US$bn Power Transportation Leisure & Property Telecommunications Water & Sewerage Waste & Recycling Source: Thomson Reuters Telecommunications sector has seen the greatest growth on the back of power in India and Singapore. Loans issued at Q has already outstripped the entire 2006 and 2007 combined. RBS
7 Infrastructure Loans by Country in APAC The rise of India (Nov) US$bn Source: Thomson Reuters Australia Singapore India Philippines South Korea Macau Japan Indonesia Hong Kong China As at July YTD, Australia, India and China has an aggregate loans market share of 69%. India, China and Singapore has seen the sharpest growth in project finance loans. While India and China s infrastructure growth is likely to continue, Singapore s looks likely to decrease with the completion of Power Privatisation and the Integrated Resorts. RBS
8 What about the future?
9 Projected Demand for Infrastructure Financing Projected spending offers opportunities for private sector and innovation in capital markets but....india and China are challenging for International Companies and Banks Patience and Stamina are a prerequisite for emerging markets. Source: Merrill Lynch, Asia Development Bank, Fitch Ratings, Macquarie RBS
10 Which markets are most attractive? Assessment of Infrastructure Business Environment a report card Qtr Asia Pacific Infrastructure Business Environment Ranking Source: Business Monitor International Q1 08 Limits of potential returns : evaluation of sector s size and growth potential Risk to realisation of returns : evaluation of industry specific risks (political or economic) RBS
11 But hang on - What about the credit crunch?
12 When did Credit Begin to Crunch? 1.4 Residential Mortgage Lending Flow of Funds $Trillions Lending started to slow in April Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Source: Federal Reserve, RBS RBS
13 Before House Prices Became Affected Residential Mortgage Lending Flow of Funds Case-Shiller 20 MSA Home Price Index (Right Scale) $Trillions House prices peaked four months later House Price Index Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, RBS RBS
14 Asset-Back Commercial Paper continued to reach unprecedented heights Residential Mortgage Lending Flow of Funds 220 Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Outstanding 1.2 Case-Shiller 20 MSA Home Price Index (Right Scale) $Trillions House prices peaked four months later House Price Index $Trillions ABCP reached $1.2 trillion on 8 August Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, RBS Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jan-07 Nov-07 Aug-08 Source: Federal Reserve, RBS RBS
15 Before investors reduced exposure and SIVs became household words Residential Mortgage Lending Flow of Funds 220 Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Outstanding 1.2 Case-Shiller 20 MSA Home Price Index (Right Scale) $Trillions House prices peaked four months later House Price Index $Trillions ABCP reached $1.2 trillion on 8 August Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, RBS Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jan-07 Nov-07 Aug-08 Source: Federal Reserve, RBS RBS
16 Soon After, Libor Rates dislocated from benchmarks Which provided a double whammy for ABCP issuers who saw spreads AND Libor leap Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Outstanding 6 Residential Mortgage Lending Flow of Funds 1MO USD Libor 1.2 Case-Shiller 20 MSA Home Price Index (Right Scale) $Trillions House prices peaked four months later House Price Index $Trillions Soon after Libor spiked, disconnencted from its former Fed Funds benchmark 3 1MO USD Libor Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, RBS Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jan-07 Nov-07 Aug-08 Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, RBS RBS
17 RBS7944 The Result. Cumulative write downs announced between (Source Bloomberg) Wachovia Citigroup Merrill Lynch UBS Washington Mutual HSBC Bank of America JP Morgan Morgan Stanley RBS Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank ING Group Fortis Societe Generale Barclays Financial Institutions 17 in USD bn
18 So, what does this mean for Borrowers?
19 The Singapore Gencos - Story Tuas Power Sold to Huaneng Group for SGD4.235bn in March Bridge debt SGD2.25bn all in debt pricing c.100bps. Senoko Power sold to a Marubeni led consortium for SGD 4bn in Sept Bridge debt SGD2.9bn all in debt pricing c.200bps. Power Seraya sold to YTL for SGD3.8bn in December Bridge debt c SGD2.25bn rumored all in debt pricing c.300bps. RBS
20 What to expect and watch out for. Availability of debt is scarce and expensive relative to recent history. Banks are nervous of underwriting - MAC and Flex provisions are back in vogue. More conservative levels of leverage and higher standard of covenants will be applied. Banks costs of funds has dislocated from the funding benchmarks (LIBOR) market disruption clauses are being invoked new pricing benchmarks are being sought (Credit Default Swap rates?). Refinancing risks are considerably higher. RBS
21 A Change in Priorities for Sponsors Certainty of funds, rather than cost of funds should be the focus, especially for bid situations. Banks alone are unlikely to be able to fund mega projects. Equity and Debt need to assess refinancing risks. Multi sourcing is back - Governments, Local banks, Export Credit Agencies, SWF, Cash Rich Corporates/funds/Co Investors, HNWI and Non Core Assets are all potential and important sources of liquidity. Project Bonds? RBS
22 Project Bonds in APAC Australia Significant flow of AUD denominated monoline wrapped project bonds to Qtr AUD680mn Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal - AUD1.6bn Reliance Rail. - Underlying BBB investment grade, credit enhanced to AAA. - Sold predominately to offshore investors. - Terms competitive with bank market especially for long tenors. No comparable deals in Asia why? - Bank debt historically cheaper and more flexible than Bond debt - Deals capable of being financed with Equity, Bank Debt, ECA funding. - APAC Investment community prefers name lending to SPVs. - Offshore investors have plenty of opportunities in their home markets. A recipe for change? RBS
23 What will banks expect? Is the Sponsor Group an existing or target relationship of the bank? Is the Industry/Country part of the strategy? Are we supporting Multiple bidders? Are we leveraging the capital to maximise return? - Mandated, Advisor, Equity, Debt, Hedging? - Likelihood of the deal proceeding? - Risk adjusted returns acceptable vs other uses of capital? - Pre hedging locked in? - Long term hedging locked in? - Other cross sell products what are they? - Long term take out rights locked in? Oh and does the deal stack up from a credit perspective!!! RBS
24 Conclusions The infrastructure market in APAC seems set fair for continued growth in the short to medium term. Opportunities abound but being focused and selective around sectors and countries is imperative for success. Sponsors with access to liquidity will have a significant competitive advantage especially in bid situations. Expect debt to be harder to come by, leverage levels to be lower, covenants to be tougher and pricing higher. Refinancing can no longer assumed to be upside for equity! Consider all options for raising finance - not just banks! RBS
25 Contacts Project & Export Finance, Asia Pacific Project & Export Finance, Australia UK / Europe Wayne Burdett Roddy Adams Phillip Hall Managing Director Executive Director Head of Infrastructure Finance Head of Project & Export Finance, Asia Pacific Project Finance, Australia Tel: Tel: Tel: wayne.burdett@rbs.com roddy.adams@rbs.com phillip.hall@rbs.com North America Jasper Wong Executive Director Project & Export Finance, Asia Anthony Edwards Project Finance, New York Tel: Tel: jasper.wong@rbs.com anthony.edwards@rbs.com RBS
26 The Royal Bank of Scotland plc Make it happen RBS
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