The Solar Energy Technologies Office Getting to Ubiquitous Solar

Transcription

1 The Solar Energy Technologies Office Getting to Ubiquitous Solar Minh Le, Director Solar Energy Technologies Office

2 SunShot Price SunShot Initiative 5-6 /kwh without subsidy A 75% cost reduction by the end of the decade

3 SunShot Initiative Solar Grid Parity by MAJOR PROGRESS PRIORITY AREAS

4 PV Module Prices Reaching $.50/W could take until 2030 for Si modules*

5 SunShot Initiative Solar Grid Parity by MAJOR PROGRESS PRIORITY AREAS

6 SunShot Initiative Solar Grid Parity by MAJOR PROGRESS PRIORITY AREAS

7 SunShot Initiative Solar Grid Parity by MAJOR PROGRESS PRIORITY AREAS

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9 Erosion of Domestic PV cell and Module Manufacturing U.S. Market Share Pe ercentage 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 42% ROW Europe Japan U.S. Taiwan China U.S. Share PV Module Shipmen nts (GW) 5% 0% '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 5 2% 0

10 Manufacturing Abandoning today's commodity manufacturing can lock you out of tomorrow's emerging industry. - Andy Grove, co-founder, former CEO, Intel

11 Today s Power System Two Way Power Flow Generation-Transmission Substation Distribution System Source: NREL-Coddington modified Alvin R.

12 Billions of Dollars in Capital will be required 30 Investment t, $2013 (Billions) Estimated capital requirements for historical and projected PV deployment Sources: DOE, GTM/SEIA, LBNL

13 Current sources of Capital for Solar Traditional capital sources for PV Potential new capital sources for PV Cost of Capital (Indicative) Tax equity Utility-scale, 7% 10% unlevered Levered 12% 18% Public capital vehicles Mortgage-backed securities Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) (non-mortgages) Market Size Securities Outstanding (billions of dollars) N/A (approximately 20 firms, mostly financial) b 3% 7% $13,200 3% 7% $2,150 Debt products 3% 7% $31,200 Yield-co s 3% 7% >$5 (only including RE securities. Asset class is growing dramatically) MLPs & REITs 5% 12% $900 Source: Mendelsohn & Feldman, NREL (2013).

14 Emergence of Loans for Solar Deployment Loan Type Description Lender Term Interest Rate Examples Availability A loan or line of credit against the called a 2nd mortgage Home value of a homeowner s equity; also Equity Bank, CU, Finco 30 yrs 6.25% + NA Nationwide Title I Housing & Urban Developme nt (HUD) Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) On-Bill Solar- Specific 90% governmentguaranteed loan secured by second lien on mortgage A loan made via an increase in property tax assessment and amortized through property tax bill Loan amortized through electric bill A loan made to a borrower by a private or public lender exclusively for the purchase of a solar system Programapproved Lenders (Bank, CU, Finco) Bank, Finco, Municipality Bank, CU, Utility, State Private: Bank, CU, Finco Public: State & Local Govt., or Utility 20 yrs 6-10% Power- Saver, Admirals Bank s Solar Stepdown 20 yrs 5-8% Hero Program Nationwide States with PACEenabling legislation 20 yrs 3% + NYSERDA NY yrs Private: 3% + (with dealer discount) Public: 3%+ Digital CU Enerbank GreenSky Can be limited to certain jurisdictions or available nationwide

15 PV System Pathway to SunShot Installed Sys stem Price (2010 $/W DC ) Residential $7 $6.60 $6 BOS-Soft Costs BOS-Hardware $5 Inverter $4 Module $3 $3.55 $2 $1.50 $1 $0

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18 Unlike physics, where we can fundamentally figure out the upper limit for the efficiency of solar cells, there is no such limit to bureaucracy

19 Rooftop Solar Challenge

20 Well, let's say you can shave 10 seconds off of the boot time. Multiply that by five million users and that s 50 million seconds, every single day. Over a year, that's probably dozens of lifetimes. So if you make it boot ten seconds faster, you've saved a dozen lives. That's really worth it, don't you think?

21 22 Rooftop Solar Challenge Teams Cut red tape by 1 week 600 MW installed 40,000 installations 40,000 weeks of red tape = 768 Years of red tape

22 Minh Le Director Solar Energy Technologies Office SunShot Initiative